MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 8/19/21

Thursday evening brings a short four-game MLB DFS main slate to the table. In addition to only having eight teams from which to draw bats, there are only two premium pitchers on the slate, and one of those has struggled through his season. Several other arms are at least playable but by no means trustworthy, making this a slate for which bats are extremely likely to carry the day. Getting to a diverse selection of stack combinations is more difficult with so little to draw from, but there are paths toward unique combinations by exploiting positively leveraged teams and individuals who are not drawing significant ownership.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto — 5.17

Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Turner — 7.26

Miami Marlins: Jesus Sanchez — 4,10

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 10.42

Minnesota Twins: Miguel Sano — 11.16

New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 3.07

New York Yankees: Joey Gallo — 5.84

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 5.78

Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

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MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

This is one of the more top-heavy pitching slates of the season, with only Brandon Woodruff standing tall and confidently on the mound. The balance of the slate, including Luis Castillo, is less than reliable at best. Castillo is a highly talented pitcher, but his struggles have continued into the second half of the season, though he is in a highly favorable matchup. After Castillo, most of the other options have far lower ceilings, though Taijuan Walker, Zach Thompson and Jameson Taillon have all delivered in spots this season.

Woodruff has made 23 starts this season, completing 140.1 innings and striking out 29.9% of opposing hitters. He walks 6.6% and has a 0.90 WHIP with a 3.03 xFIP. He comes in with a 12.5% swinging strike rate, 29.9% CSW, 4.7% barrel rate and 30.7% hard hits. Woodruff has a .317 expected slugging percentage that stands in the 86th percentile in the league. Woodruff will be facing a Cardinals active roster that has just a 3.29% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season, the 22nd-ranked team in baseball in the category. St. Louis has a .151 collective ISO and creates runs 10% worse than average in the split, though they limit strikeouts well. The active roster lands at just a 22% strikeout rate against righties this season, sixth best in baseball. Woodruff stands a strong chance of overcoming that quality, at least to the degree that he will outpace alternatives in strikeouts tonight. He costs $10,700 on FanDuel and $9,200 on DraftKings.

Castillo faces a weak Marlins lineup, while he has lacked reliability through most of the season this could be a major get-right spot. Miami’s active roster ranks 23rd out of 30 teams, coming in with a 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Marlins have a .132 collective ISO in the split and just a 2.76% home run rate. Miami creates runs 16% behind the average, Castillo stands a good chance of getting through the lineup cleanly and piling on a few strikeouts on this slate. He has thrown 137.2 innings in 25 starts and has a 23% strikeout rate, 3.85 xFIP, a 1.41 WHIP and 9.8% walk rate. Castillo has been effective limiting premium contact, allowing a 5.1% barrel rate and just a 4.7-degree average launch angle, though he does yield 38.4% hard hit. With a $9,700 price tag on the blue site, Castillo is projecting to be in more than half of all lineups. He will be popular into the 70% range, along with Woodruff, for just $8,500 on DraftKings. On that site in particular, changing one of the two pitchers to an alternative is an easy and immediate way to differentiate lineups from the field.

The most likely pitcher to provide a slate-relevant score outside of the top two options is Taillon. He has thrown 118 innings in 23 starts, striking out 23.4% of opposing hitters. He has walked a few too many at 7.1%, but that is not an egregiously bad mark. Taillon has a 4.60 xFIP that is difficult to trust in, and he comes in with a 1.22 WHIP, so he should be rostered with the expectation that he will pitch through trouble and may yield several runs if extra baserunners come around to score. He induces an 11.9% swinging strike rate but has just a 27% CSW and yields an 8.6% barrel rate with a 40.5% hard hit. Taillon faces a Twins team that is performing above average across the board in the split. Minnesota’s active roster has a 4.15% home run rate and a .183 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They strikes out at just a 22.1% rate and creates runs two percent ahead of average in the split. Taillon will be pitching at Yankee Stadium, a park that plays extraordinarily well for power. He has upside on the slate and is the primary pivot, but he is in no way a truly safe option.

New York Yankees

According to the Awesemo Top Stacks Tool, the Yankees stand virtually double the chance of being the top stack of the night than any other team on the board. The Bronx Bombers are in their home park and should be at nearly full power, following the return of several players from the COVID-19 list, not the least of which is Anthony Rizzo, who generated a ton of offense in his first few games with the club before the brief absence. Rizzo’s hit tool and discerning eye, as well as his power upside, play extremely well from the left side of the plate in the Yankees lineup. New York is facing a Twins squad that will have John Gant on the mound. Gant has made 14 starts and thrown 85 innings this season. He has just an 18.1% strikeout rate and a ridiculously bad 15.2% walk rate on the season. Gant yields a 5.2% barrel rate and 40.2% hard hit, with 90.4 mph average exit velocity, significant marks for run creation, sequential hitting and power. He has a 5.24 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, 9.4% swinging strike rate and 25.7% CSW; he Yankees have massive upside in this matchup. New York’s go-to options are D.J. LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Rizzo, Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez. Additional options can provide value depending on the batting order and the need for pressure releases on pricing, these players include Rougned Odor, Tyler Wade, Brett Gardner, and Andrew Velazquez.

New York Mets

The Mets are not profiling well for power on this slate, facing Dodgers pitcher Brusdar Graterol. He has 48.1 major league innings under his belt since first breaking through in 2019. He has allowed just two home runs in the sample, which is helping suppress the power upside displayed by New York hitters in the power index above. Graterol has just a 19.4% strikeout rate in the majors but has pushed into the 28-30% range throughout most of his developmental stints in the minors at every level. He has also been excellent limiting home runs throughout the minor league run as well. Meanwhile, New York’s active roster has a 3.40% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season, they have a .149 ISO and a 24.8% strikeout rate in the split and have created runs 11% worse than average. However, the Mets are providing a positively leveraged target on both sites, and there are limited options for quality with so few teams in play. New York is lower owned on DraftKings, where they are drawing a big leverage number, but they are playable on both sites.

Brandon Nimmo is slashing .276/.402/.381 on the season as one of the Mets more reliable options. Nimmo’s has hit just three home runs in 255 plate appearances and has a .105 ISO, but he creates runs 25% better than average given his steady hit tool and his excellent on-base skills. Nimmo is an excellent option at $2,900 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings.

Jeff McNeil slashed .311/.383/.454 last season and .318/.384/.531 with 23 home runs and a .214 ISO the season before. This year, McNeil has fallen to a .254/.330/.368 triple-slash with a .114 ISO and six home runs in 303 plate appearances and is creating runs three percent worse than average. He is in play and should absolutely be included in Mets stacks, but the reliability factor is low.

Pete Alonso is listed as questionable for tonight’s game after getting hit in the elbow in the ninth inning last night. Alonso’s X-rays came back negative, but the team may give him the night off to heal. If Alonso is in the lineup, he is the Mets’ most likely option for power. He has hit 26 home runs this season and is slashing .251/.335/.494 with a .243 ISO. He has created runs 23% better than average this season yet somehow costs just $4,400 on the DraftKings slate and $3,700 on FanDuel.

Michael Conforto slashed .322/.412/.515 with a .193 ISO and nine home runs in 233 plate appearances in 2020 and .257/.363/.494 with 33 home runs and a .237 ISO in 648 plate appearances in 2019. This season Conforto is a .220/.337/.366 hitter with a .147 ISO and eight home runs. He has managed a 101 WRC+ despite the dip in quality, but he is struggling. Conforto is priced down to $2,700 on the blue site and costs just $3,000 on DraftKings.

J.D. Davis has missed much of the season, but he is slashing .297/.395/.461 with four home runs in 152 plate appearances this season. Davis has a .154 ISO and creates runs 36% better than average so far in his shortened season. Coming in well under 10% projected ownership on the DraftKings slate for $3,400 and will be similarly popular for $2,700 on the FanDuel slate.

Dominic Smith is a $3,200 outfielder on the DraftKings slate and has flexibility to first base on FanDuel for $2,600. He has hit 11 home runs in 432 plate appearances but has just a .123 ISO and has created runs 11% behind the league average this year. Last season, Smith slashed .316/.377/.616 over 199 plate appearances with 10 home runs last season in a major breakout.

Jonathan Villar is a third base and shortstop option on DraftKings, and slots into three positions on FanDuel, adding second base eligibility. With Villar representing the fourth Mets bat that plays at least two positions on the blue site, this is an extremely flexible roster that is easy to put together with most other teams in the league. Villar has hit 14 home runs and swiped 10 bags in just 345 plate appearances this year. He also hits from both sides of the plate and plays premium positions, making him safe against getting pulled for pinch-hitters late in games. Villar is slashing .246/.321/.427 with a .181 ISO and 105 WRC+.

Catcher James McCann is slashing .240/.303/.357 with a .117 ISO, and he has an 84 WRC+. McCann has had better seasons at the plate, but he can provide positional upside from time to time. He has hit nine home runs this season and costs just $2,800 on DraftKings. On FanDuel McCann is more of an afterthought, though his $2,300 price can help with salary combinations if needed.

HR Call: Max Kepler — Minnesota Twins

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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