MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 8/20/21

The 14-game Friday MLB DFS slate features a fascinating mix of high-end pitching and major upside spots for bats. Several teams will have their top starter on the mound, while at the same time we have four teams with implied totals well over six runs, and a handful of additional options close on their heels. Throw in a Coors Field game and we have the potential for a bonanza of MLB DFS scoring on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Spreading out to capture a wide range of probable outcomes with bats and playing a pitching pool concentrated around a mix of the highest projected and highest leverage score pitchers is the path for GPP play on this slate. With the help of the Awesemo expert MLB DFS projections, let’s get into the top stacks and MLB DFS picks for Friday, Aug. 20.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Carson Kelly — 5.03

Atlanta Braves: Jorge Soler — 11.40

Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 5.10

Boston Red Sox: Kyle Schwarber — 7.50

Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez — 16.27

Cincinnati Reds: Mike Moustakas — 16.70

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 8.32

Colorado Rockies: Brendan Rodgers — 10.83

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 12.35

Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 11,54

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 10.70

Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Smith — 8.50

Miami Marlins: Jazz Chisholm — 6.01

Milwaukee Brewers: Willy Adames — 8.84

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 13.75

New York Mets: JD Davis — 6.38

New York Yankees: Joey Gallo — 22.04

Oakland Athletics: Mark Canha — 6.00

Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 11.34

Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco — 10.08

San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. — 20.32

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt — 8.93

Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 5.28

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 8.30

Tampa Bay Rays: Wander Franco — 5.00

Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 10.04

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 12.48

Washington Nationals: Yadiel Hernandez — 5.58


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Picks free fantasy baseball rankings today Yahoo ESPN CBS DraftKings FanDuel home run predictions calls best MLB bets today las vegas betting odds MLB lines today Yankees Reds Padres Blue Jays White Sox Rockies tournament strategy advice tips cheat sheets

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Friday’s pitching slate features at least six starters who could legitimately be considered their team’s ace. To boot, several of them will be facing the dregs of the league. Walker Buehler will be at home in Los Angeles for a start against the struggling Mets and lands among the most likely starters to post a big score. Boston’s Chris Sale draws the lowly Rangers in his second start back from an extended absence, given a six-inning run he projects very well. Southpaw Robbie Ray looks under-owned from atop the board in an excellent matchup against the Rangers, and Sonny Gray is highly affordable in a spectacular spot taking on the Marlins. With Lucas GiolitoLance McCullersMax FriedAlex Wood, James Kaprielian and Yusei Kikuchi taking the mound there are abundant alternative approaches to roster construction on this slate, any of those starters could conceivably post a slate-relevant score, while lowball options like Nestor CortesBrett AndersonAustin Gomber and Miles Mikolas are in interesting situations.

Buehler has cruised through a terrific season, leading the league in quality starts and striking out 27% of hitters in 154.2 innings. The righty has a 3.64 xFIP with a 0.94 WHIP and walks 6.8% over his 24 starts this season. He induces an 11.4% swinging-strike rate and has a 29.7% CSW% while allowing a 7.1% barrel rate and 36.3% hard hit. Buehler is highly reliable for depth and the shot at all available bonuses on both DraftKings and FanDuel whenever he takes the mound. Tonight, he faces a Mets lineup that has mostly struggled for quality this season. New York’s active roster has a 3.37% home run rate that ranks 20th in the league against right-handed pitching and they have compiled just a .148 ISO. The team is seventh-worst in baseball with a 24.8% strikeout rate in the split and they create runs 11% behind the average, giving Buehler additional upside and safety. For $11,600 on FanDuel, Buehler is drawing essentially zero ownership. On DraftKings he costs $10,500, a difficult but playable price that is not drawing enough ownership. Buehler is among the top three on both sites in the Top Pitchers Tool by probability of success, yet he is also the slate’s most positively leveraged starter on FanDuel, a fantastic situation for GPP play.

Sale completed five innings in his first start back against the Orioles, striking out eight and walking none, while allowing two earned runs. The elite starter has had a long road to recovery, it was two years and one day exactly between Major League starts for Sale, following his 2019 season-ending injury. Sale dominated over 147.1 innings that season, posting a 2.93 xFIP with a 35.6% strikeout rate. For his career, Sale has a 30.7% strikeout rate and just a 5.7% walk rate, he is a spectacular option for upside against any opponent, any question marks would simply be related to the depth to which he may pitch in a game that his team should easily win. Sale is facing the Rangers, a team that stands second-worst in baseball with a 2.37% home run rate against lefties. The have a collective .124 ISO and create runs 23% worse than average in the split. Sale should cruise through this start, despite the Rangers’ reasonably good 21.4% strikeout rate against southpaws. Sale is popular on FanDuel for $10,700 and he is shooting through the roof on DraftKings at just $9,700. On the latter site, Sale’s negative leverage mark is concerning and an undercut to the field seems in order.

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Toronto’s Robbie Ray will be defending his homer happy home turf in Toronto against a trendy Tigers team that has the fourth-worst strikeout mark against lefties this season at 25.2%. Detroit has a somewhat above average 3.82% home run rate in the split however, their .174 collective ISO in the split is, at worst, not bad, and the active roster has created runs a surprising 14% better than average against southpaws. The collective WRC+ mark in the split lands fourth in baseball, falling behind only the Yankees, Astros and Blue Jays. Ray is a pitcher who has always yielded a ton of premium contact. This season, despite the consistent quality, he has yielded a 9.5% barrel rate and a 44.2% hard-hit rate with a 15.4 degree average launch angle and 90.8 mph of average exit velocity. The lefty has a 30.3% strikeout rate over his 137.1 innings, helping protect him from mistakes despite the quality contact allowed. The major difference for Ray this season has been a dramatically improved walk rate. From 2017-2020 Ray’s average season long walk rate was 13.28%. This season, he is walking a mere 6.7% of hitters, though that mark is trending up in recent starts. If Ray cannot control the free passes he gets into trouble extremely easily. There is major upside in this spot for this starter, but he is not entirely safe for the price or popularity. In fact, attacking Ray with a few low-owned Tigers stacks may be a reasonable upside play, given a near total lack of ownership on their side.

Gray draws a Marlins lineup that is eighth-worst in baseball with a 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins get worse from there, posting just a .131 ISO and a 2.73% home run rate in the split, while creating runs 16% behind league average by collective WRC+. Gray has thrown 90.2 innings in 18 starts this season, putting up a 28.5% strikeout rate but also walking 9.3% of opposing hitters. He has been good at limiting quality contact this season, however, coming in with a 4.5% barreled ball rate and a 32.6% hard-hit rate that help level out the free passes. Gray has a 3.44 xFIP on the season, but the bumpy 1.39 WHIP reflects the inflated walk rate. Against a strikeout-happy weak offense like Miami, Gray stands a great shot at getting through six clean upside innings, putting him in play on both sites. Unfortunately, he is priced very fairly, coming in at $8,300 on FanDuel and $8,400 on DraftKings. He will be popular and lands at a dramatically negative leverage mark on both sites. This is not the best of tournament plays, despite the general upside. It makes sense to roster Gray, but undercutting the field would be wise, as would focusing on using him with low-owned combinations. Gray will be atop many similarly-built lineups tonight, make sure to get different when using him.

Coors Field

The Coors Field game tonight features two lousy teams that are in play primarily because of the park factors. The Diamondbacks are in town to face the Rockies, with Tyler Gilbert on the hill for Arizona and Austin Gomber looking to continue a good season for Colorado. The Rockies are baseball’s 23rd ranked team by WRC+ against left-handed pitching, with a 93 this season, while the Diamondbacks sit 28th against righties at an 81. Colorado has just a 21% strikeout rate against southpaws and their 3.87% home run rate and .178 ISO are surprisingly both above average. Arizona, meanwhile, maintains just a .129 ISO and 2.09% home run rate against righties, both league-worst, while striking out at a 25% rate in the split. The Rockies are clearly the better option, but we are still looking at a generally bad baseball team that is drawing negative leverage and will likely get more popular before lock. Arizona is similarly popular and negatively leveraged. Both teams are playable for the pricing and park, but there are many options on the slate tonight that are more appealing than following the field into Coors.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox land near the top of the board on both FanDuel and DraftKings, while coming in under-owned across the industry. The will be backing up Sale with their typically loaded lineup. The key group of players includes Xander BogaertsRafael DeversJD MartinezHunter Renfroe and Kyle Schwarber, all of whom are owned in single digits. Additional quality can be extracted in combinations by including Enrique HernandezAlex Verdugo and Jarren Duran, while Christian Vazquez offers a playable catcher on DraftKings. The Red Sox are facing Dane Dunning, a good young righty who is still finding his full form. Dunning has thrown 99.2 innings in 21 starts this season, posting a 3.69 xFIP with a 1.38 WHIP this year. He allows too many baserunners, coming in with an 8.3% walk rate, and he does not strike out enough at just 22.9%. Dunning has allowed a 7.3% barrel rate and a 6.2 degree average launch angle that somewhat cap the home run upside despite a 42.6% hard-hit rate. A team like the Red Sox that is designed to hit for power should not have difficulty elevating the ball to the necessary trajectory if Dunning makes a mistake, and they are more than capable of capitalizing in this spot even without hitting a handful of home runs.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves are the top team on both sites by probability of being the highest scoring stack. They are also under-owned, creating an excellent situation for tournament play on both sites. They are closer to level on FanDuel, but on DraftKings there is a major delta between the team’s collective popularity and their upside for slate-relevant MLB DFS scoring. The Braves lineup is loaded and high-priced, which is part of the reason for low ownership. They are well worth the expense, though rostering them with another premium stack and the most popular pricey pitchers is a difficult ask. Atlanta is in Baltimore’s hitter friendly park and facing lefty Keegan Akin, who is one of the more targetable starters on the slate. Akin has a 4.98 xFIP and a 1.82 WHIP this season, he strikes out just 19.6% and walks 8.7% while yielding a 9.6% barrel rate and a 44.2% hard hit. The Braves active roster has a 4.17% home run rate and a .186 ISO against lefties, both of which are among league-leading teams. Their 23.4% strikeout rate is around the average, however, and they have created runs only at the league average of 100 by collective WRC+ against southpaws. This is a weak version of a Major League lefty, though, and Atlanta should have little difficulty rounding the bases against him.

Ozzie Albies hits from both sides of the plate and is one of baseball’s best second basemen. Albies is slashing .258/.322/.489 this season with a .231 ISO and a WRC+ 12% better than average. He has hit 22 home runs and stolen 16 bases, creating MLB DFS points entirely on his own, while also serving as highly correlated option for hitters later in the lineup. Albies is well worth his hefty $5,800 price tag on DraftKings and $4,400 on FanDuel.

Jorge Soler brings titanic power to the Braves lineup. The righty slugger is up to 16 home runs with a .181 ISO on the season, still well behind where he was two years ago when he hit 48 home runs, but improving significantly since arriving in Atlanta. Soler is no one’s idea of a good hitter from a contact perspective, he has just a .199/.302/.380 slash and creates runs 13% behind the curve, but his 48.5% hard-hit rate and 12.7% barrel rate have major appeal against this starter and in this park. Soler should not be skipped, though he is popular as a discounted bat in this lineup on both sites. He plays better as a part of stacks than as a one-off.

Freddie Freeman falls around five percent popularity on FanDuel, less on DraftKings. The first baseman is having his typically excellent season at the plate. He is slashing .301/.399/.519 for the season and has a .218 ISo with 27 home runs. Freeman has created runs 40% better than average in the three spot in this lineup. he is an ideal option even against a lefty, though the same-handed matchup seems to suppress his popularity when it should not. The first baseman is another Braves hitter who makes excellent contact, coming in with a 48.1% hard-hit rate and an 11.5% barrel rate, he should be in most Atlanta stacks.

Righty Austin Riley has had a major breakthrough this season. He has hit 26 home runs in 499 plate appearances, with a 44.2% hard-hit rate and a 13.2% barrel rate. The third baseman is slashing .297/.375/.532, surprising somewhat with the quality of the hit and on-base skills. Riley has a .235 ISO and has created runs 38% ahead of the average, he another excellent cog in the Braves run scoring machine. For $3,800 on FanDuel, Riley will be the second-most popular hitter in this lineup behind Soler. On DraftKings he costs $5,700 and is below five percent ownership.

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Shortstop Dansby Swanson is the fourth of five straight hitters with above average hard-hit rates in this lineup. The right-handed hitter has a 44.8% hard-hit rate and a 12.2% barrel rate that he has converted into 24 home runs and a .225 ISO this season. He is slashing .264/.316/.489 and has been creating runs nine percent better than average by WRC+. Swanson is one of the more underrated options at his position in all of baseball.

Adam Duvall has mashed 27 home runs and has a .253 ISO on the season. Forgiving and skipping Soler’s .181, the other five of the top six hitters in this lineup have an average ISO of .232, a stunning amount of power to throw at this pitcher. Duvall is slashing .224/.284/.478 on the season but still creates runs three percent better than average given his mammoth power. He belongs in stacks on both sites.

Travis d’Arnaud provides catcher quality where it is required, and is playable where we do not necessarily have to roster the position. The backstop has made 112 plate appearances this season, he is slashing .223/.277/.369 with a .146 ISO and has created runs 29% worse than average in the small sample, with three home runs. d’Arnaud hit nine home runs in just 184 plate appearances while hitting .321/.386/.533 last season, he has more quality than we have seen so far this year and can be rostered with confidence in this spot.

Joc Pederson hits for tremendous power against righties, and he has been far better than his history and reputation this season by adapting himself to be more of a hit tool play against fellow lefties. Pederson has hit 14 home runs overall this season, but only two against lefties. However, he is slashing .291/.371/.419 with a .128 ISO against fellow southpaws this season, while creating runs 17% above average. Those marks represent a sea change in the split, Pederson’s career line is .211/.288/.332 with a 70 WRC+, averages that include this season’s stunning turnaround. He is in play from the bottom of the order and could provide either run creation and correlation or flash some power against the wrong bullpen pitcher.

Guillermo Heredia slots into the lineup as the team picks up the designated hitter going into an American League park. Heredia is slashing .233/.320/.381 with five home runs in 306 plate appearances this season. He has created runs 11% worse than average so far this season and is more of an afterthought, though he should not be entirely excluded by any means. Heredia’s salary may become a necessity as it helps offset some of the more expensive plays in stacks.

HR Call: Mike Moustakas — Cincinnati Reds

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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