MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 8/21/21

The Saturday MLB DFS main slate features six games with an earlier start on FanDuel, while DraftKings is playing it at a traditional starting time and running a five-game affair. The slate offers a few solid pitching options and a wide range of high-end spots for bats, as well as a Coors game once again. With a small slate we will see significant concentrations of ownership around the premium pitchers, the Coors game and some of the better teams. The Braves, Red Sox, Reds and Cardinals are drawing ownership simply for being among the better available lineups, while some of the worst teams in baseball fill out the rest of the options at relatively low popularity. Navigating through the ownership and finding unique combinations is a tricky proposition for this slate, but there are a few seemingly under-owned upside spots for MLB DFS stacks today, and the back-end of lineups are always in play for differentiation.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte — 7.24

Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 11.48

Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 12.00

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 16.92

Cincinnati Reds: Nick Castellanos — 5.28

Colorado Rockies: CJ Cron — 9.19

Miami Marlins: Lewis Brinson — 3.28

Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 8.80

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 9.82

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 11.11

St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 24.13

Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 7.48


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks today DraftKings FanDuel Free expert fantasy baseball rankings today Yahoo ESPN CBS cheat sheet tips advice strategy tournament GPP stacks las vegas betting odds MLB betting lines today best bets Cardinals Red Sox Braves Orioles Rockies Padres

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Saturday features an interesting pitching slate. The two best pitchers by talent will be facing one another in the night’s last game, as Joe Musgrove and Aaron Nola duel in San Diego. Despite facing one another, the two starters represent the top two options by probability of being the top starter on FanDuel and they are two of the top three by chances of landing among the two best starters on DraftKings. The shakeup on the latter site comes with Eduardo Rodriguez sliding in between the pair of aces. Rodriguez is in a plus matchup against the lowly Rangers and has been pitching far better than most casual observers would think all season long. Additional competence and the possibility of upside can be found in Wade Miley in what should be an easy start against the Marlins, and Drew Smyly could find his form as an inexpensive SP2 option in a game against Baltimore, though the park will not be on his side.

Much of the slate will be waiting out the late game for their pitching scores. Roughly 40% of the FanDuel pitching ownership and a greater than 70% share on DraftKings will be dedicated to these two hurlers. Both pitchers have had strong seasons, though it is Nola who has provided a greater level of consistency and security. Nola has thrown 134.2 innings in 24 starts, he has a 3.50 xFIP with a 1.17 WHIP and induces a 12.9% swinging strike rate with a 30.8% CSW%. He has allowed a 7.5% barrel rate with a 36.6% hard-hit percentage, allowing the righty to largely keep the ball in the yard, despite a fair amount of fly balls on contact. Nola has a sharp 29% strikeout rate and he walks just 5.5%, he is excellent at keeping runners off the bases and provides excellent depth of start and a good shot at quality start bonuses. The opposing Padres are the second-best in baseball at avoiding strikeouts against righties however, coming in with a 20.8% rate in the split. They are good at creating runs against right-handed pitching at four percent ahead of the league average, though they are just around the middle of the league with a 3.57% home run rate and a .166 ISO in the split. Nola will be lower-owned than his opponent for the perceived difficulty of the matchup, but he has the talent to get through this lineup cleanly a few times over, while also finding bonus strikeouts. Nola is well worth the salary on both sites.

Meanwhile, it is Musgrove who has the better matchup but is also drawing more ownership. The Padres starter has struck out 27.6% of hitters over 133.1 innings this season. He has a 3.49 xFIP with a 1.03 WHIP and a 13% strikeout rate. Musgrove has been good at preventing premium contact, he has been limiting hard hits to just 35.2% while allowing a 6.1% barrel rate. The opposing Phillies are not entirely toothless, but their offense has been overrated all season. The team has a collective .159 ISO and a 3.41% home run rate against right-handed pitching, both marks fall below league average. The Phillies strike out at a 23% rate in the split, a decent mark that lands 10th best in baseball, but they create runs 12% worse than league average by WRC+. There is upside for Musgrove, but he is crushingly popular for $9,100 on DraftKings and will be widely owned for $9,400 on FanDuel, where we have two extra pitchers.

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Rodriguez has a very good chance to put up the night’s highest pitching score. The Red Sox southpaw has had a strong season, regardless what his baseball card may say about earned runs. Rodriguez comes into tonight’s game with a crisp 3.31 xFIP and a 29.1% strikeout rate for the season. He has walked a few too many at 7.2% but more of the run scoring issues have cropped up around luck and happenstance, as indicated by a hefty .357 batting average on balls in play against. He has yielded a bit of solid contact with a 7.3% barrel rate and a 36.2% hard hit, but those are 56th and 69th percentile marks, hardly problematic. The lefty faces a lousy Texas team that struggles in the split. They are reasonably good at preventing strikeouts, the active roster has just a 21.4% rate against lefties, but they create runs 23% worse than average and have just a 2.33% home run rate in the split. Their .122 ISO is one of the worst marks in the league against either hand. This is a weak offense and Rodriguez has a chance to dominate in this spot.

Coors Field

With Kyle Freeland and Zac Gallen on the mound for their respective clubs, there is no easy way around the fact that Coors Field is likely to be slate-relevant for offense tonight. Gallen is a quality pitcher, but not to the degree that we can forecast him negating park factors, particularly in a season when he is pitching to a 1.40 WHIP with a 10.4% walk rate. That is simply too many baserunners to expect a clean game. There is upside for both the Rockies and Diamondbacks in this game, though the home team seems to offer a slightly better lineup. The Rockies will be the more popular pick, but there are individual plays within the lineup that are going under-owned, and diverse combinations of hitters can be strung together. In a price and ownership vacuum, key Rockies hitters include Connor JoeBrendan RodgersCharlie BlackmonTrevor Story, and C.J. Cron. Of that group, Blackmon is underperforming for the year and will consequently be under-owned on the slate, making him an appealing tournament play. Ryan McMahon has struggled through the second half, but remains an interesting option at low ownership, while Sam Hilliard has late lineup power upside, coming in with eight home runs and a .270 ISO in just 122 plate appearances, though his triple-slash leaves much to be desired at .207/.279/.477. Catcher Elias Diaz can be deployed as needed. On the Diamondbacks side, Ketel Marte is the only true upside player, while his largely replacement level teammates fill in around him. Playable options in the projected lineup include Nick AhmedPavin SmithCarson KellyDavid Peralta and Christian Walker.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves were the featured stack in this space yesterday for their placement at the top of the board on both sites by probability of being the top scoring team, while pulling strong positive leverage across the industry. The exact same situation is being presented by this team for the Saturday slate and MLB DFS gamers should absolutely capitalize on the opportunity to roster them against Matt Harvey. Key Braves hitters include Ozzie AlbiesJorge SolerFreddie FreemanAustin RileyDansby SwansonAdam Duvall and Joc Pederson. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud was placed on the paternity list, so Stephen Vogt will likely join Guillermo Heredia toward the back of the lineup, though the team could choose to go a different direction given the addition of a designated hitter in the AL park.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are flashing gargantuan power numbers in my home run model and they rank well on the site’s Top Stacks Tool. The heavily right-handed power hitting squad is facing lefty Dillon Peters, who has just 4.2 innings under his belt. Peters yielded a 12.5% barrel rate struck out just 13.6% in that tiny sample. Across 137.1 innings at the Major League level combined since 2017, Peters has a 5.30 xFIP and a 5.70 ERA to go with a 16.6% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate. He has given up 27 home runs in the sample, a 1.77 HR/9 mark that creates the major power upside for St. Louis. Go-to Cardinals bats include Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and Paul DeJong. Additional options of varying quality that can fill out a lineup and score MLB DFS points in a variety of ways include Tommy Edman, Yadier Molina and Edmundo Sosa.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are coming up with negative leverage on DraftKings but a positive mark on the FanDuel slate, given the addition of the high-end Reds offense on the blue site’s early-starting slate. Of the teams that appear on both sites, the Red Sox are the strongest bet to be a highly productive offense and are worthy of consideration despite the hefty ownership. The slate is small enough that working with chalky players and getting to lower owned plays within the pool of their teammates is a viable approach, particularly if combining them with less popular pitching or second stacks. The Red Sox lineup has massive upside against Jordan Lyles, a pitcher with just an 18.3% strikeout rate this season. Lyles has allowed a 10% barrel rate and 43.1% hard-hit percentage, with 90.9 mph average exit velocity. He is extremely targetable with one of baseball’s best offenses.

Enrique Hernandez is slashing .253/.340/.454 with a .201 ISO and 15 home runs atop the Red Sox lineup. Hernandez has created runs 14% better than average by WRC+ across his 459 plate appearances this season. The infielder makes hard contact 40.3% of the time and has a strong ability to put the ball in play with just an 18.7% strikeout rate. Hernandez is a popular starting point on both sites and will be very highly owned in Red Sox stacks. He is deserving of popularity, but other plays from the back-end of the lineup may be more viable for differentiation purposes.

Alex Verdugo shines against right-handed pitching. He is slashing .324/.400/.527 with a .202 ISO in the split, while creating runs 49% better than average. He is an excellent option regardless of where he falls in the Red Sox lineup, but he truly pops for quality hitting second in this matchup. The outfielder strikes out just 14.8% of the time and walks 9% while making hard contact 42.6% of the time. Verdugo will also be a popular play in this lineup but warrants consideration given his upside in the split.

Xander Bogaerts is expensive, which helps keep some of his popularity at bay. He is still projected for significant ownership, but falls slightly behind some teammates despite his extreme upside. Bogaerts is slashing .309./.378/.526 with a .217 ISO and has hit 20 home runs on the season while creating runs 42% better than average. He is easily one of baseball’s best shortstops and belongs in any Red Sox stack. When he is one of the lower-owned options on the team his appeal only increases at any price.

Rafael Devers is explosively popular on this slate and stands an excellent chance of hitting a home run against this pitcher. Devers is slashing .278/.353/.554 with a .276 ISO and 29 home runs. He obliterates bad right-handed pitching and makes steady hard contact against both hands, coming into tonight with a 50.5% hard-hit rate. The lefty third baseman is an excellent option but he will be extremely popular and is at a massive salary. Devers has major upside, but he is difficult to work with on this slate.

JD Martinez has hit 23 home runs and has a .245 ISO while creating runs 36% better than average. He will be owned under 10% on the DraftKings slate at a $5,300 price tag and represents a strong point of differentiation for MLB DFS lineups on that site. The slugger is a $4,000 outfielder on the FanDuel slate, his popularity is reduced on that site as well, though he will be owned closer to 15%. Martinez regularly makes strong contact, coming in with a 48.3% hard-hit rate and a 12.5% barrel rate this season, he is an excellent upside option.

Hunter Renfroe continues the power trend for the Red Sox lineup. The outfielder has hit 22 home runs and has a .230 ISO this season. He is slashing .256/.314/.486 and has been under-owned on most slates this season; a trend that will continue on the DraftKings slate tonight, given his pricing. On FanDuel he is less costly and more popular, but worth playing. Renfroe has a 13.3% barrel rate and a 43.5% hard-hit rate, he strikes out 22.2% of the time and creates runs 12% better than average. He is better than many think, which makes him an exploitable spot for MLB DFS tournaments.

The massive power upside provided by Kyle Schwarber can be nicely summed up by his .313 ISO, by far the team-leading mark. Schwarber has made 321 plate appearances between the Nationals and Red Sox this season, hitting 25 home runs and slashing a great-for-him .263/.355/.576 while creating runs 43% better than average. Schwarber costs just $4,500 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel, he is the most popular Red Sox bat, which makes him a difficult ask in GPP play, despite the obvious upside for a gigantic score.

Christian Vazquez is playable where catchers are required, despite the downturn this season. Rookie Jarren Duran is slotted into the nine spot in the projected lineup. He has made 88 plate appearances at the Major League level after an outburst through Triple-A in the first half. In the Show he is slashing just .224/.239/.376 with two home runs and a stolen base. He has a .153 ISO and creates runs 42% behind the average. Duran costs just $3,700 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel. He will be over-owned at 15% on the blue site, but he is only in single digit popularity across town. A DraftKings late lineup stack that includes Martinez, Renfroe, Schwarber, Vazquez and Duran would not be an unplayable combination.

HR Call: Tyler O’Neill — St. Louis Cardinals

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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