Saturday night’s MLB DFS slate features scant few prime pitching options but an interesting mid-range that should create opportunity on both sides of the game. Unlike last night’s pitching pool, today has a very clear top play followed by a handful of starters who rank similarly and could provide a wide range of scores. The hitting slate looms large as well, with several extremely targetable pitchers taking the mound for their clubs. This should be a high-scoring night of MLB DFS action, and a few stacks seem great to own ahead of the field on the Top Stacks Tool.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte — 5.20
Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez — 12.08
Colorado Rockies: CJ Cron — 12.56
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 7.75
Kansas City Royals: Sal Perez — 11.90
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 9.35
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 10.14
Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 14.10
New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 6.62
New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 13.70
Oakland Athletics:Â Matt Olson — 19.27
San Diego Padres: Tommy Pham — 9.19
San Francisco Giants: Wilmer Flores — 7.31
St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 6.11
Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 10.88
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 11.45
Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 12.26
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The pitching slate is topped by the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler on both DraftKings and FanDuel in his start against the Mets. Buehler is expensive on both sites, but he is drawing very different ownership from one to the next, as compared to the other available options. Getting to the right alternative on DraftKings would be an easy way to get away from a large portion of the public, while Buehler is arguably under-owned on the FanDuel slate. San Diego’s Joe Musgrove seems like a strong candidate to put up a relevant MLB DFS score in an easy spot against the Diamondbacks. He could be a strong option at a lower price. The slate will also see Dylan Cease take his strikeout acumen to the mound in a start against the dangerous but strikeout-prone Yankees, while James Kaprielian draws a strong upside spot against the Rangers. The slate’s mid-range continues through Yusei Kikuchi, Kenta Maeda, Luis Garcia, Jameson Taillon and Hyun-jin Ryu, with varying quality. Garcia has been the strongest option of that group for most of the season, but he faces a somewhat dangerous Angels lineup, Taillon is in a tough spot against the White Sox, Ryu and Kikuchi are dueling one another, and Maeda has struggled for most of the season and is facing a dangerous Rays team.
The league’s leader in quality starts stands alone at the top of the pitching board. Buehler has been terrific all season. He has posted 20 quality starts in 23 games, completing 147.2 innings with a 3.66 xFIP and a 0.93 WHIP. The Dodgers righty has struck out 26.5% of hitters while walking 6.6%, inducing an 11.3% swinging-strike rate and allowing a 36.4% hard-hit rate for the season. Buehler is steady for contact. He allows a 7.1% barreled ball rate and 88.2 mph average exit velocity but rarely has the men on base to lead to major damage if he makes a mistake. Buehler faces a Mets active roster that has a 3.44% home run rate that lands in the middle of the league in the split. The team has a .150 collective ISO and a 24.6% home run rate that both fall behind the curve, while they create runs 10% worse than average against right-handed pitching by collective WRC+ this season. Buehler is alone on a price tier on the FanDuel slate, which is keeping him at relatively similar ownership to less expensive options and around level with his probability of success. On the DraftKings slate, the starter lands closer to his peers by salary, and he will be slightly over-owned as a result. In an ownership vacuum, Buehler is the best option on the board, but with pricing and leverage playing a major factor, there are abundant alternatives.
Musgrove has been solid for most of the season and seems to have corrected any problems that caused some minor bumps in the road earlier in the Summer. Musgrove has a fantastic matchup, facing a Diamondbacks active roster that lands near the bottom of the league in every category against righties. Arizona has just a 2.07% home run rate and a .126 ISO in the split, both league-worst marks. The team has created runs 19% worse than average and strikes out at a 25.1% clip. They are extremely targetable for upside-pitching scores. Musgrove is more than capable of reaching lofty heights against this squad. The righty has a 28.2% strikeout rate with a 13.2% swinging-strike rate and a 31.7% CSW% this season. He has allowed just a 5.8% barreled ball rate with a 34.8% hard-hit rate this season, providing reliable excellence through 22 starts and 128.1 innings. Musgrove costs $9,600 on FanDuel and $9,100 on DraftKings, setting him up with a fair amount of ownership from site to site. He will be popular, but he is a clear second-best option in this spot.
Need Preseason Fantasy Football Projections? We have you covered! Our team of Fantasy Football experts have preseason projections for all your DFS needs. Get access to our 2021 preseason projections with any purchase of our NFL Weekly Pass for only $14.95 or NFL Monthly Membership for just $49.95.Kaprielian faces a Rangers team that falls 22% behind the curve in run creation against right-handed pitching. Texas has a .142 ISO and a 3.15% home run rate in the split that are both below average as well. The team sits at a 23.8% strikeout rate in the split that lands in the middle of the league, which should be more than enough upside for a pitcher with a 25.9% strikeout rate over 78.1 innings this season. The Athletics righty walks a few too many at nine percent on the season, and he has a 4.37 xFIP with a 1.14 WHIP. There would be a concern for run creation against a better team. In addition to the high number of free passes he yields, Kaprielian allows a 9.2% barreled ball rate with a 42% hard-hit rate this year. Combined with an 18.6-degree average launch angle, there could be home run upside as well, but the Rangers simply lack the talent to exploit those flaws on most nights. The starter is at a fairly high price point on both sites. He seems like a better option for the lower $8,500 salary on the blue site, where he is drawing 15% ownership. On DraftKings, a $9,300 price tag is not slowing the public much, which could put a disproportionate amount of weight on the young righty by comparison to his probability of success.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are one of the top options on the stacks board in a matchup against Jordan Lyles in Texas’ hitter-friendly environment. The righty has just an 18.2% strikeout rate with a 7.8% walk rate and a 9.5% barreled ball rate. He is extremely targetable for run creation. Lyles also yields a fair amount of power. Opposing hitters have a 42.8% hard-hit rate with an 18.2-degree average launch angle and 90.8 mph average exit velocity, nearly ideal home run trajectory and pop. The powerful Athletics lineup makes their living tattooing pitches from weak righties. There is major upside in Oakland stacks. The team is slightly negatively leveraged on the FanDuel slate, while they have a healthy positive leverage mark on DraftKings, making them a stronger play on that site. Go-to Athletics bats include Mark Canha, Starling Marte, Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie and Matt Chapman. Lefty platoon specialists Mitch Moreland and Seth Brown are good plays pending their status in the lineup, while Sean Murphy provides power upside as a right-handed catcher where they are required. Josh Harrison provides a talented veteran bat in the middle of the projected lineup, and he will be one of the least popular Athletics’ bats. The utilityman slots in at second base and in the outfield on DraftKings for $3,900 and is a second or third baseman on FanDuel at $3,000. Harrison is slashing .294/.366/.435 and creating runs 18% better than average, with seven home runs and seven stolen bases this season. He is not a mere afterthought and could provide solid value in this stack. Tony Kemp is a more playable option than Elvis Andrus at either the top or bottom of the lineup.
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The mostly healthy White Sox are now waiting on the return of just Yasmani Grandal before they are whole. The team, as it is intended to be played, is lethal at the plate, featuring major upside for power, speed and run creation. Chicago’s active roster is fantastic against lefties and above-average against righties, coming into today with a collective WRC+ that stands eight percent above average. The team has a 3.64% home run rate with a .169 collective ISO against righties. They stand a good chance to put up a strong score against Yankees starter Jameson Taillon. Taillon has been coming on of late, but for the season, he stands at just a 23.7% strikeout rate over 113 innings in 22 starts. The righty induces a steady 12% swinging-strike rate and has a serviceable 7.2% walk rate, but he sits at a 4.59 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP while allowing an 8.7% barreled ball rate and a 40.8% hard-hit percentage. These are targetable marks across the board. The White Sox’s outrageously talented lineup has underappreciated upside.
Shortstop Tim Anderson costs $5,000 on the DraftKings slate but just $3,500 on FanDuel. Anderson is a legitimate star. He is slashing .300/.330/.457 with 13 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 436 plate appearances this season. The White Sox leadoff hitter could stand to draw more walks at just 4.1%, but he puts the ball in play fairly reliably and has just a 21.8% strikeout rate. Anderson is a strong option who will be owned under five percent on both sites tonight.
The second spot in the lineup could go in several directions, depending on the platoon decisions and status of Adam Engel, who is currently questionable. Brian Goodwin seems equally likely to occupy the available outfield spot and would be on the plus side of his splits but is likely to land later in the batting order if he is the play. In that event, Cesar Hernandez will be the likely two hitter for Chicago tonight. The infielder has had changed results from the hitter he has been in the past, clubbing 20 home runs in 475 plate appearances but slashing just .234/.314/.426. Any of the three options – and most others on this team – would be a solid play from this spot in the lineup tonight. They are all affordable and low-owned with individual upside and a strong correlation for MLB DFS scoring.
Jose Abreu can be relied upon to hit third tonight. The power-hitting first baseman is slashing .250/.335/.475 with a .225 ISO and 23 home runs this season. He is creating runs 23% ahead of the average by WRC+ while making 50.7% hard contact. Abreu costs $4,900 on DraftKings and is somehow at just $3,800 on the FanDuel slate. He will be owned in the low single digits despite being a strong candidate for home run upside on this slate.
Eloy Jimenez leads the White Sox in my home run model and is one of the night’s top-ranked options for power. Jimenez has made 51 plate appearances since his return to the lineup, and he already has six home runs. The outfielder is slashing .306/.333/.755 with a ridiculous .449 ISO and has created runs 92% better than average, giving a dramatic jolt to the Chicago lineup. Jimenez is a virtual must-play in the middle of all White Sox stacks, but he is projected for less than five percent ownership across the industry.
Switch-hitting Yoan Moncada lands at a user-friendly $4,200 on DraftKings and is priced far too low at $2,800 on FanDuel. Moncada is slashing .251/.367/.391 for the season with 10 home runs and a .140 ISO, numbers that are down from previous heights we have seen from the third baseman. Overall, he still creates runs 17% better than average and has upside for MLB DFS point scoring on any slate. At extremely low ownership and friendly pricing, Moncada makes a phenomenal play in stacks and as a functional low-cost one-off play.
Andrew Vaughn has been one of the more disrespected hitters in MLB DFS this season. The young outfielder has made 362 plate appearances, and he has a .190 ISO with 13 home runs and a 48.6% hard-hit rate that stand second on the team. Vaughn is a highly regarded young player who has found firm footing in the Majors, he has upside for days with his ability to drive the ball, but he costs just $2,800 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel, with under one percent ownership.
Luis Robert returned to the lineup several days ago but has yet to price up on either site. He lands at $3,100 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel and is drawing no ownership despite his massive talents. Robert is slashing .308/.348/.458 with a .150 ISO and one home run, with four stolen bases over 115 plate appearances since the start of the season. He has created runs 22% better than average and should not be forgotten in White Sox stacks.
This is the likely spot for Goodwin if he lands in the lineup. If Engel plays, he may hit here or in the two spot, which would drop Hernandez to this territory. Goodwin is an underrated power hitter. He is slashing just .239/.316/.445, but he has hit seven home runs and has a .206 ISO while creating runs 10% better than average over 175 plate appearances. There is minor upside in whichever hitter lands in this spot, largely for correlation reasons.
Seby Zavala lands as the catcher in the projected lineup, though Zack Collins could see a start with a righty on the mound. Either catcher is merely a placeholder until Grandal returns the lineup to its full form, but they are not without some value. Zavala has hit four home runs in his 64 plate appearances, coming into action with a .255 ISO, while Collins has struggled more for quality despite a strong pedigree. The lefty option comes in slashing .195/.316/.333 with four home runs and a .138 ISO. Neither catcher will be popular. Either would be more valuable on DraftKings than on FanDuel.
HR Call: Matt Olson — Oakland Athletics
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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