MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 9/3/21

A full 14-game Friday of MLB DFS action sees every team but the Pirates and Cubs on the main slate this evening. While there is an abundance of talented second and third starters, there are few who qualify as aces. With a likely innings limit on the lone standout starter, things could break in any number of directions around a broad mid-range and affordable pricing. The slate size and availability of different quality combinations up and down the salary spectrum make this a slate that requires casting a wide net to capture a broad range of outcomes for GPP tournament play. Keeping an eye on the site’s leverage tools and the individual Ownership Projections and overall DFS MLB projections will be critical for lineup building decisions tonight.

Daily Fantasy Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 6.08

Atlanta Braves: Jorge Soler — 8.22

Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 10.22

Boston Red Sox: Kyle Schwarber — 9.32

Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal — 7.60

Cincinnati Reds: Nick Castellanos — 12.39

Cleveland Indians: Bobby Bradley — 6.41

Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 9.02

Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 11.22

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker — 11.68

Kansas City Royals: Sal Perez — 8.57

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 13.73

Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Turner — 8.60

Miami Marlins: Jesus Sanchez — 5.16

Milwaukee Brewers: Eduardo Escobar — 7.95

Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 12.77

New York Mets: Javier Baez — 12.20

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 20.36

Oakland Athletics: Mark Canha — 6.61

Philadelphia Phillies: J.T. Realmuto — 10.02

San Diego Padres: Wil Myers — 8.01

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt — 5.23

Seattle Mariners: Abraham Toro — 9.63

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 5.70

Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Zunino — 7.87

Texas Rangers: Nick Solak — 3.08

Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 9.58

Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 8.56


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS lineup picks today DraftKings FanDuel Fantasy Baseball Optimal Lineup optimizer free rankings projections ownership cheat sheet advice strategy tips best bets today MLB lines odds predictions betting picks Yankees Astros Reds Dodgers Rays White Sox home run calls

MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Freddy Peralta has been on the shelf since his last start on Aug. 18. While this is not a long layoff, he went out with a shoulder issue, which is a major red flag for pitchers in their first starts back regardless of the length of layoff. In a full start, Peralta would be the clear-cut top pitcher on this slate, given his performance throughout the season, in this situation, it is far more of a question mark. Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Gibson rank out behind an unadjusted Peralta in my personal pitching model, but discounting the innings would vault at least those two ahead of the Brewers starter, which is how they appear in the Top Pitchers Tool. Both starters have their positives and negatives, but they are among the top available options on a board with a low peak. The only problem with Adam Wainwright on this slate is the DraftKings price tag, which is inflated above the $10,000 mark. Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, Alek Manoah and even Rich Hill can provide lower-end value. Hill is only on the list for the matchup and extremely favorable pricing. He is drawing somewhat negative leverage already, which would erase his appeal if it were to remain that way at lock. Additional value plays include Nestor Cortes facing the Orioles, Madison Bumgarner against the Mariners, and Vladimir Gutierrez who faces the Tigers. Rangers rookie Glenn Otto is already projected for ownership more than double his probability of being a top-two starter.

Peralta seems very likely to be limited to around five innings (if that) despite all accounts reporting him as “feeling 100 percent.” Peralta did not make any rehab starts, throwing only bullpen sessions during the time off. There is minor speculation that he was not truly injured, but the team was simply making an excuse to manage his season-long workload. While that remains a possibility, it does not change that the pitcher has not exerted himself in game action for nearly three weeks. When he is on the mound, Peralta is spectacular. He has a 34% strikeout rate with a 3.66 xFIP this season. He has induced a 14.3% swinging-strike rate and allows just a 5.4% barrel rate, though he does walk too many at 10.6%. Peralta has limited opposing hitters to a 31.5% hard-hit percentage, and he allows just 86.4 mph average exit velocity, all strong marks for limiting contact and major damage. Peralta is facing a St. Louis team that is stingy against right-handed pitching. The Cardinals active roster has just a 21.9% strikeout rate in the split, good for sixth best in baseball. The team trails the field in power and run creation, however, coming in with a 3.28% home run rate and a .151 ISO while creating runs 9% behind the league average. Peralta’s night and MLB DFS score will depend on how deep he is allowed to pitch into the game. The combination of the Cardinals ability to limit strikeouts, Peralta’s inefficiency with walks, and the questions on length make this a daunting spot for $10,200 on FanDuel and $9,300 on DraftKings, particularly when a third of the field will be rostering the pitcher on the latter site.

On the other side of the same game, Wainwright warrants more consideration than he is getting across the industry. He has been sharp all season long, pitching to a 3.71 xFIP over 169.2 innings, the fourth-highest innings total in baseball. Wainwright is one of baseball’s most reliable options for depth and a chance at quality start bonuses where they are relevant; his 18 quality starts in 26 tries tie for fourth in baseball. He has just a 22.8% rate for the season, but he walks merely 5.9% and allows a 6.5% barrel rate with a reasonably good hard-hit rate of 37.1%. The Brewers’ active roster strikes out at a 24.2% clip against right-handed pitching, creeping into the bottom half of the league. They are better for power, hitting their way to a 3.76% home run rate and a .171 ISO that are both in the upper third of teams, but they still create runs 5% below average and are a somewhat flawed team. Wainwright is owned in single digits for his expensive price tag on both sites, it makes sense to outpace the field on this pitcher, particularly on DraftKings where his probability of success dwarfs his ownership total.

Gibson ranks highly more for his matchup than his talent tonight. Gibson has thrown 150 innings this season and he has just an 18.9% strikeout rate. He has a pedestrian 4.30 xFIP, a 1.18 WHIP, 9.8% swinging strike rate and a 26.8% CSW for the season. Gibson has just a 4.1% barrel rate this season, which yields a 37.9% hard-hit rate. Gibson should not be relied upon for significant strikeout upside, even in a matchup against a Miami team that has one of the league’s worst marks at 25.2% in the split. He is drawing popularity because it is likely he gets through this lineup several times cleanly. In addition to the heavy strikeouts, the Marlins are bad at everything else as well. The team has a .126 ISO and a 2.58% home run rate against righties this season and they create runs 20% worse than league average. This is a bad baseball team and rostering Gibson is entirely justifiable, though the degree to which the public is getting to him is far too overweight. In tournaments, Gibson should be undercut on this slate if his public ownership projections hold. There are too many similar options at similar prices, some potentially with far more upside for individual point scoring for those willing to embrace more risk, it makes no sense to follow the field down such a popular path on a slate of this size for a pitcher this lacking.

Ohtani has a 29.9% strikeout rate over 105 innings this season, one of the highest rates on the board. He has his walks down to a still-too-high 9.2% for the year after not walking a hitter over 13 innings in his last two outings. He is pitching to a 3.57 xFIP with a 1.06 WHIP for the season. Ohtani induces a 13.3% swinging-strike rate but allows a bit too much premium contact at times. He comes into tonight’s action with a 7.1% barrel rate allowed, which is fine, but he also carries a 41.3% hard-hit percentage allowed with 89.1 mph average exit velocity at a 13.2-degree average launch angle. Ohtani yields just 0.94 HR/9 this season, but hitters can square the ball and driving it, which could be problematic if he has a rough night with the free passes. Ohtani’s starts come down to his efficiency and walks; when he is pitching well he is one of the top options in the game. His chances tonight will be bolstered by facing a Texas lineup that has just a 3.18% home run rate and a .145 ISO against right-handed pitching. Texas creates runs 18% worse than average in the split and strikes out 23.4% of the time. Ohtani is clearly in a strong spot, but he is a very different play from site to site. On DraftKings he is priced at an incorrect $8,700 against one of the worst lineups in baseball. This has the field correctly flocking to Ohtani but pushing his ownership numbers too far into negatively leveraged territory. On the blue site, Ohtani costs $10,800 and he is projected as one of the more positively leveraged pitchers, from atop the rankings by probability of success.

Value pitchers abound on this slate. There is an argument to be made that simply avoiding the extreme pay-down pitchers and focusing on under-owned premium starters, while not worrying about their higher salaries, is a strong approach to this slate. With options like Nestor Cortes leading the way among value pitchers but also coming up at an ownership projection nearly double his probability of success, there are major questions about the viability of the value plays. The Orioles are not an incapable offense, Cortes is not a premium pitcher, and more than a fifth of the field on DraftKings is looking to him for quality. Similarly, Michael Wacha lacks premium upside but is drawing ownership more than double his probability of being a top option on the FanDuel slate. Utilizing him at SP2 on DraftKings is not off the board by any means, but he is facing a Twins lineup that is drawing significant power indicators in the matchup and he yields a 9.8% barrel rate with a 42.4% hard-hit percentage while striking out just 21.8%. For $5,000, Otto is another prime candidate to disappoint more MLB DFS gamers than he should. Otto is a low-level prospect who came to the Rangers as part of the Joey Gallo trade. He has just 100.2 innings above High-A ball in his career, all of them this year. He threw 65.1 innings in Double-A for New York, pitching to a 2.48 xFIP and a 40.7% strikeout rate that betrayed the level mismatch. On promotion to Triple-A, his strikeout rate dropped to 24.5% in 30.1 innings and his xFIP was around 4.60 combined over the two stops. Otto made one start in the Majors so far, throwing five innings against the excellent Astros offense and holding them to just two hits while striking out a shocking seven. Otto seems extremely unlikely to repeat this performance. For his salary, it is fine to roster him on the DraftKings slate, but he should not be expected to deliver a relevant score for $6,700 on the FanDuel slate.

Los Angeles Angels

Despite opposing Otto, the Angels are an odd team to consider on this slate. With Ohtani on the mound, there is a gap in the top of the lineup in terms of sequencing and the best offensive weapon on the team will be unavailable to MLB DFS but might still produce on the field. This is frustrating for a team that would be worthwhile given the slight popularity of Otto as a value play. The Angels projected lineup is pulling in decent home run marks in my model and they project for positive leverage in the Top Stacks Tool. Building stacks from the middle of this lineup is still an interesting consideration. Hitters like Jared Walsh, Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Max Stassi have reasonable power profiles for their positions, while Phil Gosselin, David Fletcher, Jack Mayfield and others can fill in around the edges. If Ohtani were available, this team would be more highly ranked and more popular, they remain in a good spot for MLB DFS point-scoring despite his absence, and getting ahead of the field will not be difficult because of it.

New York Mets

The Mets profile extremely well in their matchup against lefty Sean Nolin. He has made three starts, getting through 12.1 innings with a 22.8% strikeout rate while allowing a 43.9% hard-hit percentage. Nolin is a career minor league journeyman. This is a highly targetable spot for power and run creation upside. Unfortunately, the Mets are coming up nearly three times more negatively leveraged than any other team on the FanDuel slate. On DraftKings, they are the second-most negatively leveraged team. On a slate this size it is just difficult to separate from the field when rostering stacks of players who are all owned in the 15-20% range. The Mets are worth consideration and there are a few ways to string together lower-owned bats on DraftKings, but they are a difficult popularity puzzle on this slate. Go-to options include Pete Alonso, Javier Baez, Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto. Jonathan Villar will be extremely popular atop the lineup on both sites, while Jeff McNeil is a more interesting play from the back end of the projected batting order.

New York Yankees

The Yankees are at home in their hitter-friendly park to face the division-rival Orioles and lefty John Means. Means has a 4.36 xFIP and a 1.00 WHIP this season and still gets lucky with balls in play. He strikes out just 22.9% of hitters and walks only 4.2%. He allows a 10.1% barrel rate with a 21-degree average launch angle that plays extremely well to home run quality, though his hard-hit rate of 35.4% and his average exit velocity allowed of just 86.9 mph make for a puzzling combination. The Yankees profile extremely well for home run upside in this matchup and the ball does not need to be perfectly hit to get out of this park. The team is projected to be positively leveraged or come up around even by lock, they appear to be at least a solid play with upside for more depending on how the field falls around certain bats. D.J. LeMahieu is not popular enough at the top of the lineup, nor is Anthony Rizzo who does not have an issue with lefties. Aaron Judge is drawing the most popularity on both sites, but he is only at a 13.4% projection at the high point on FanDuel, easily a playable number when considering the low marks of some teammates. Judge is followed by Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Gallo with their ridiculous power coming in at low ownership and reasonable salaries. The pair have hit 55 home runs this season and have an average ISO of .237. The Yankees lineup could come together in several different configurations, players to look for on the back end include a returning Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, as well as Luke Voit, Rougned Odor and others.

Houston Astros

The Astros are typically featured in this space for being very highly ranked while flashing positive leverage. On today’s slate, the team does not rank well at all in the Top Stacks Tool, coming in near the bottom of the list. The Astros are on the road in a National League park that does not play well for hitting and their game is totaled at nine runs, though they are the favored team. They will lose the designated hitter in this contest, which means that Yordan Alvarez will likely be relegated to pinch-hitting duties, and they will be short a bat. In spite of all of this, what is seemingly getting ignored is a matchup against Jake Arrieta. The Astros are baseball’s best lineup statistically, they do everything extremely well. Arrieta is one of baseball’s worst pitchers. He has thrown 89.2 innings this season, has an 18.1% strikeout rate and an ugly 9.4% walk rate, and he allows a 9.5% barrel rate, marks that combine to form a flashing “hit me” sign for opposing hitters. Run creation opportunities should come frequently for the excellent Astros bats and Arrieta yields power as well, giving up a 44.1% hard-hit rate and 90.6 mph average exit velocity on the season. His 1.78 WHIP shows how many runners will be on base, it seems extremely unlikely that this pitcher is going to limit this offense.

Jose Altuve strikes out just 14.2% of the time and walks at a 10.1% clip, numbers that help keep him rounding the bases and creating runs 27% better than average. He is the priciest Astros bat at $6,300 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel. He is slashing .272/.346/.372 with 25 home runs and four stolen bases this season. Altuve makes a strong option at the top of lineups.

Michael Brantley is slashing .317/.371/.448 and creates runs 31% better than average over his 464 plate appearances in 2021. Brantley has just a .131 ISO and eight home runs despite a solid 42.1% hard-hit rate. He is here to get on base and be an engine for this team while helping push the offense by driving the ball and keeping it in play. Brantley has a nearly unfathomable 10.6% strikeout rate on the season. He is just one of many Astros hitters who will have an excellent chance to put bat on ball in this one.

Shortstop Carlos Correa has 20 home runs, gets on base at a .371 clip and creates runs 37% ahead of the average. He is also excellent for contact, coming in at an 18.7% strikeout rate while walking in a whopping 12.7% of opportunities. He will be owned below 1%, as with most of this team, and he comes at a fair $5,000 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel.

Yuli Gurriel is at least expensive on DraftKings now, where he lands at a $5,300 price. On the blue site, Gurriel is still a baffling $3,400. He is slashing .313/.382/.468 this season and he creates runs 37% better than average by WRC+, while hitting 13 home runs. He is not the biggest power bat at his position, but he is excellent at putting up quality MLB DFS games with his hitting acumen and ability to both get on and drive runs in. Gurriel has a ridiculous 11% strikeout rate and a 10.2% walk rate on the season. This is a key player to include in Astros stacks from the middle of their high-octane lineup.

Third baseman Alex Bregman made his return to the Astros lineup recently and was promptly priced up to an appropriate $5,100 on DraftKings. He is too cheap at $3,600 on FanDuel. He is slashing .284/.369/.428 with seven home runs while creating runs 24% better than average in his 287 plate appearances this year. He is just two years removed from a 2019 season in which he posted a .296/.423/.592 over 690 plate appearances with 41 home runs and a .296 ISO. Bregman is striking out just 15.7% of the time and walking 11.1%, continuing a theme in this lineup.

Kyle Tucker has 22 home runs and a .239 ISO while creating runs 33% better than average. Tucker leads the projected roster with a 47.9% hard-hit rate and an 11.8% barrel rate this season, and as a reminder, he is facing Arrieta. Tucker is another great bet to keep the ball in play, even if he does not hit a home run. He strikes out just 16.5% of the time. Somehow, Tucker costs $4,100 on the DraftKings slate and $3,300 on FanDuel. This is a mistake that is not being exploited nearly enough by the public.

After the top six hitters, the lineup drops slightly. From Altuve through Tucker, the Astros average a strikeout rate of just 14.5% while walking at a 9.8% clip, and they have an average WRC+ of 132 or 32% above average. This is a stellar six-man grouping against any pitcher on any slate. Against Arrieta tonight it is one of the more mystifying ownership situations we have seen this season.

Jake Meyers has a 50% hard-hit rate in a limited sample of 84 plate appearances. Meyers is slashing .313/.333/.488 with a .175 ISO and three home runs in the small opportunity. He has created runs 27% better than average and makes for a playable addition to stacks at $2,600 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel, though his cost and popularity offsets are not entirely necessary on this slate.

Catcher Martin Maldonado has 10 home runs in 354 plate appearances as the Astros primary catcher. He is slashing .179/.282/.315 and does not provide much MLB DFS point-scoring upside. Both Maldonado and Meyers are atypical in this lineup in that they strike out at a 29.7% and 32.1% rate respectively, though Meyers has time to improve. Maldonado can be skipped where the position is not necessary.

HR Call: Miguel Sano — Minnesota Twins

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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