MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 9/5/21

Sunday brings a slate of MLB DFS action that looks primed for offensive outbursts. There are several highly targetable pitchers ranging from just plain bad to simply inexperienced and likely to yield home runs power. A slate that seems heavily slanted toward bats is likely to become fairly concentrated around just a few pitching options, which should be the case once again today given only a handful of truly viable plays for significant upside. Utilizing the Top Pitchers Tool to find the best leverage situations is the only way to navigate lineup construction today. Landing on a few less-owned pitching plays while rostering the popular bats could be the difference between a meaningful finish and a min-cash for GPP play on both DraftKings and FanDuel today.

Daily Fantasy Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

Check out all Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content, and free MLB DFS picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 6.45

Boston Red Sox: Hunter Renfroe — 12.89

Chicago Cubs: Frank Schwindel — 12.98

Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada — 5.11

Cincinnati Reds: Mike Moustakas — 12.39

Cleveland Indians: Amed Rosario — 5.11

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 5.47

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 7.53

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 13.73

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 10.77

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 9.85

New York Mets: Javier Baez — 25.38

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 13.03

Oakland Athletics: Khris Davis — 14.13

Philadelphia Phillies: Brad Miller — 12.75

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 5.36

St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 2.49

Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 15.34

Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 5.68

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 9.89


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The slate is not entirely lacking in pitching quality; the only questions are how much ownership the top arms will draw and if they will be at all rosterable from there. The slate is easily led by Corbin Burnes who will be facing a Cardinals lineup that is not a total pushover but should also not challenge him to any concerning degree. Burnes is followed on the slate by Robbie Ray in a more challenging situation against the Athletics and Dylan Cease who draws the Royals. Righty Luis Castillo has the high-strikeout Tigers on deck, but he has been a creaky old wooden roller coaster of a dangerous pitcher to roster this season. Beyond those starters, there are mostly dart throws and risks. Taijuan Walker projects well in the model in a start against the lowly Nationals, but he has had numerous issues with consistency and is only a league-average pitcher. Corey Kluber will continue his return against the Orioles and Nick Pivetta will be his usual coin-flip for quality in a contest against Cleveland. The remainder of the pitching slate looks more like targets than options.

Burnes is having a special season. He has a 34.6% strikeout rate over 139 innings in his 23 starts, pitching to a 2.39 xFIP and a 0.94 WHIP while inducing a monster 16.2% swinging-strike rate and compiling a 34.6% CSW. When hitters manage to make contact against Burnes, they still only come up with a 2.8% barrel rate and 31.3% hard-hit rate. Burnes has an expected slugging percentage allowed of .251, good for the 99th percentile in baseball. He will be facing a Cardinals team that is decidedly below average. St. Louis’ active roster does avoid strikeouts well against righties, they have a fifth-ranked 21.9% strikeout rate in the split, but the team has just a 3.33% home run rate and a .152 ISO while creating runs 9% below average. Burnes is likely to be extraordinarily popular for just $9,700 on DraftKings. The $11,500 price on FanDuel may limit ownership to a more playable level. Be sure to watch the Ownership Projections for more as lock approaches.

Ray is likely to turn back into a pumpkin. Ray is a pitcher who remains difficult to trust given his long track record, but there is little arguing with the sustained excellence he has brought to the mound through this season. He has a 31.9% strikeout rate over 159.1 innings, but more impressively his walk rate is a mere 6.2%. For a pitcher who was in the 13% range over the last few seasons, that is an astounding improvement. At age 29 Ray virtually eliminated the biggest problem in his game and has elevated himself to among the game’s elite. He has a sharp 3.21 xFIP, a strong 1.02 WHIP and induces a terrific 15.6% swinging-strike rate. Ray has still allowed an 8.7% barrel rate and 42.8% hard-hit rate on the season, yielding the contact at a home run trajectory of a 16.4-degree launch angle and 90.3 mph average exit velocity. The opposing Athletics are a good lineup and they do well against left-handed pitching. Oakland’s active roster has a 4.04% home run rate and creates runs 5% ahead of the average against southpaws. Oakland strikes out just 21.4% of the time in the split but their .169 collective ISO shows just average extra-base power. Ray costs $11,200 on FanDuel, putting him and Burnes on their own tier by a full $2,000. On DraftKings, Ray is the slate’s most expensive pitcher at $10,100. He is likely to pull popularity, but not to the levels of Burnes or some of the other options. The early update to the Top Pitchers Tool will be revelatory about how Ray should be approached on this slate. If his ownership is high, it is easy enough to pivot to other options while also saving salary.

Castillo has been all over the place this season. He has thrown 157 innings in 28 starts and has a 3.72 xFIP but a 4.30 ERA on the year and his strikeouts are down to just 23.5% for the season. He has walked far too many at 9.5% and has a bumpy 1.38 WHIP. He induces a 13% swinging-strike rate and limits barrels to just 4.9% while yielding a 37.9% hard-hit rate, but he has not done well getting himself out of trouble this year. For the season, Castillo has just a 69.8% strand rate. He should benefit significantly from an easy matchup this afternoon against the lousy Tigers offense. Detroit is second worst in baseball with a 25.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and they are below average for power and run creation. The Tigers’ active roster has a collective .162 ISO and a 3.48% home run rate while creating runs 9% worse than average against righties this season. Castillo should be on cruise control in this one, but he has gone pop in better spots than this already this season.

The White Sox have gotten more than they hoped for from Cease this season. He has made the leap from prospect to effective major league starter, throwing 143.2 innings in 27 starts and racking up an excellent 30.8% strikeout rate. Cease still walks too many at 9.2% and he had a 1.22 WHIP, but he gets out of jams well with the strikeouts, inducing a 14.4% swinging-strike rate and compiling a 30% CSW. He has issues with barreled balls at times, coming in at a 9.5% rate but just 35.9% of those are hard-hit, and he is generally good at limiting damage. Cease takes on a Royals team that can be frisky with their speed and hit tool, but he has upside for the price on both sites. Kansas City strikes out just 21.9% of the time against righties, but the team is below average with a .146 ISO, a 3.11% home run rate and a WRC+ that sits 13% below average. Cease makes a strong pivot option if he comes up with significantly lower ownership than his peers.

Walker warrants consideration largely for the matchup against the terrible Nationals lineup. He has had a few very strong starts this season but overall he comes up as just an average pitcher. Walker has a 22.3% strikeout rate with a 4.48 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP this season. He induces just a 9.6% swinging-strike rate and has a below average 28.2% CSW while allowing too much quality contact. Walker has given up an 8.7% barrel rate and 39.2% hard-hit percentage with 89.6 mph average exit velocity. He will face a Nationals lineup that features two Major League hitters and a lot of flotsam. The active roster has just a .138 ISO and a 2.92% home run rate against righties this season while striking out at a 23.3% clip that sits in the middle of the league. The Nationals create runs 13% worse than the average lineup by collective WRC+, this is a highly targetable situation and Walker is affordable at $8,000 on FanDuel and just $7,700 on DraftKings.

New York Mets

Walker will be backed by a Mets lineup that is fully healthy and looks to be in a great spot. New York is facing rookie Josiah Gray, a top prospect who was acquired in the Max Scherzer trade. He has a solid 26.7% strikeout rate over his first 40 innings this year, but he has given up a 9.3% walk rate and has an ugly 4.71 xFIP with a 1.33 WHIP. Gray yields an 11.9% barrel rate but just 34.9% hard-hit, though a 21.4-degree average launch angle with that many barreled balls spells trouble with home runs. He has allowed 13 home runs in his seven starts and has a 2.92 HR/9. The power indicators against are pushing the Mets to the top of the power index in the home run model, but the team also profiles well for run creation and sequential hitting. Key hitters for the Mets include Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, Javier Baez and Jeff McNeill. Additional options can be bolted on for salary and positional purposes, Jonathan Villar, Kevin Pillar and James McCann are all capable of providing quality MLB DFS scores.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are facing Griffin Jax and they are popping for both power potential and run creation in what looks like the best offensive spot of the day. Jax has given up a 13.6% barrel rate while striking out just 18.6% and walking 9.3%, this makes him incredibly targetable for run creation. He has a 5.67 xFIP over 53.2 innings this season. Tampa Bay features go-to hitting options that include Brandon Lowe, Nelson Cruz, Wander Franco, Austin Meadow, and Randy Arozarena. Additional quality can be found in Joey Wendle and Yandy Diaz, while Kevin Kiermaier is more of an afterthought at the plate these days. Catcher Mike Zunino has an absurd 25.6% barrel rate and 27 home runs with a .335 ISO in 314 plate appearances this season.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are in Kansas City facing Brady Singer, a rookie pitcher with a 22% strikeout rate and a 4.29 xFIP over his first 23 starts and 109 innings. Singer is a well-regarded developing pitcher, but he is not truly ready. He has allowed an ugly 9.7% walk rate and has a 1.60 WHIP this season. Singer has allowed just a 5.4% barrel rate and a 37% hard-hit percentage on the season, while limiting elevation to just a 7.1-degree average launch angle. The loaded White Sox lineup should have little difficulty circling the bases against Singer. They are projected for positive leverage on both sites and look like a fantastic play on this slate.

Luis Robert is occupying the leadoff spot for the White Sox while Tim Anderson is on the shelf. Robert is slashing .343/.381/.552 over 194 plate appearances this season, making him an ideal leadoff man. He has seven home runs and five stolen bases and is creating runs 55% better than average for the season. Robert will be in single-digit popularity for $4,200 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings, which is a mistake by the field on both sites.

Yoan Moncada fills third base on both sites and comes at a cheap $3,500 on the blue one while landing at $4,700 on DraftKings. Moncada has had a shaky year with the hit tool, but he is up to .264/.374/.397 and still creates runs at a 19% better than league average clip. He has 11 home runs and three stolen bases on the season. He will be one of the more popular White Sox bats on this slate but still comes in at only a 5.4% projection on DraftKings and lower across town.

One of the top power-hitting first basemen in the league, Jose Abreu, occupies the No. 3 spot in the lineup. Abreu has blasted 28 long balls this season and has a solid .236 ISO while creating runs 32% better than average. Abreu has a 49.6% hard-hit rate on the season with an 11.2% barrel rate.

Eloy Jimenez has eight home runs in just 140 plate appearances. He has a .236 ISO and creates runs 27% better than average in the cleanup spot for this team, getting there with a 44.4% hard-hit rate and an 11.1% barrel rate. He costs just $4,900 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel.

Yasmani Grandal has a ridiculous 23.9% walk rate on the season that exactly matches his strikeout rate. He has a team-leading 54.2% hard-hit rate and sets the pace with a 16.9% barrel rate. Grandal is slashing .227/.415/.532 on the season and has 19 home runs in just 276 plate appearances after missing time with an injury, and he creates runs 61% better than average.

Brian Goodwin has a .174 ISO and creates runs exactly at league average over his 237 plate appearances this season. He is slashing just .227/.318/.401 and has just a 32.9% hard-hit rate, but Goodwin is good enough to be playable on this slate.

Andrew Vaughn provides multi-position eligibility at first base and outfield on both sites. He has 15 home runs and is slashing .248/.323/.423 with a .175 ISO while creating runs 6% better than average. Vaughn has a 46.6% hard-hit rate, a 10.5% barrel rate, strikes out just 21.2% of the time and walks 9%.

The White Sox round things off with $2,000 Romy Gonzalez, who has made seven plate appearances and has zeros across the board so far. Cesar Hernandez has 21 home runs this season but has just a .304 on-base percentage. Gonzalez and Hernandez can be set aside for the most part, but both can provide salary and positional help.

HR Call: Francisco Lindor — New York Mets

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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