MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 8/24/21

A 14-game Tuesday main slate with extremely targetable pitchers should present minimal challenges in landing on productive bats. Finding the right combinations of arms to go with those bats, on the other hand, could be quite challenging. The pitching slate is top-heavy and slanted in that direction with heavy salaries on many of the premium options. The few high-end starters who land at fair salaries are either in difficult matchups or drawing extreme popularity, making roster construction a difficult balancing act. The Top Pitchers Tool provides a steady guiderail through the weeds to help find underappreciated pitching values. Utilizing the highest-ranked teams from the Top Stacks Tool will help vault lineups ahead of the field when they connect. Check out all of the expert Awesemo MLB DFS projections and utilize all the tools at your disposal to make the best MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups today.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Carson Kelly — 7.49

Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 12.06

Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 8.88

Boston Red Sox: Kyle Schwarber — 21.71

Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 5.74

Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert — 6.78

Cincinnati Reds: Nick Castellanos — 2.47

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 14.44

Colorado Rockies: Brendan Rodgers — 8.77

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 7.97

Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 6.40

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 6.85

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 6.03

Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 10.49

Miami Marlins: Jesus Sanchez — 7.88

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 8.70

Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 4.06

New York Mets: J.D. Davis — 9.81

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 8.72

Philadelphia Phillies: Odubel Herrera — 6.05

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 9.48

San Diego Padres: Tommy Pham — 5.10

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt — 6.54

St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 12.29

Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 5.95

Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 22.21

Toronto Blue Jays: Corey Dickerson — 5.94

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 16.21


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks Today DraftKings FanDuel Home Runs Tournament Strategy free fantasy baseball rankings projections ownership top stacks Yahoo ESPN CBS las vegas betting odds lines best bets today Red Sox Braves Yankees Mets Nationals Dodgers Cardinals Rockies Blue Jays

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The Tuesday pitching slate takes an interesting shape around several of the top projected options. A significant portion of the field is simply rostering Corbin Burnes or Jack Flaherty and going about their day. Both righties are projected at the top of the board by probability of success, though the excellent Burnes is taking on a tough Reds team, while the less expensive Flaherty draws a much easier opponent in the Tigers. On the other side of Burnes’ game, Tyler Mahle is one of the more positively leveraged options on the slate and is looking like a go-to early in the day. The two starters in the Yankees – Braves game are projected for potential slate-relevance, as does Jose Berrios in a tough game against the White Sox, though getting to options in better matchups, like German Marquez against the Cubs or Madison Bumgarner versus the Pirates has appeal to the field. Another potentially underappreciated asset on the slate is the Astros’ Luis Garcia, who has pitched well all season and will be facing a middling Royals lineup at a strong projection and positive leverage. Additional quality of a less predictable nature will likely be seen from one or more of Dylan Cease, Tylor Megill or Tanner Houck, though not one of the young pitchers is in a good spot. The lower-ranked pitchers have talent, and several could post relevant starts, but it is difficult to confidently say that Ranger Suarez or Jesus Luzardo should be rostered far more than the field. Luzardo is already coming up with negative leverage marks on the DraftKings slate, for his extremely low salary.

In the year of the partial deGrom, Corbin Burnes has been the National League’s best pitcher. Burnes comes into today’s action with a stellar 35.1% strikeout rate and a 2.33 xFIP over 127 innings in 21 starts this season. He has walked just 4.6% of hitters and has a sparkling 0.91 WHIP. He induces a massive 16.3% swinging strike rate and has a robust 34.3% CSW, while allowing a microscopic 2.7% barrel rate and just 29.8% hard hit. Burnes is excellent in every aspect of pitching, it is very difficult to get to him for home run power and his strikeout acumen and ability to limit free passes and cheap hits keeps him clean almost every time out. He has an excellent opportunity to post a strong start, though his opponent is a challenging one for even baseball’s best right-handed pitchers. The Reds have a 4.46% home run rate that ranks sixth in the split, while their .197 collective ISO against righties is good for a fifth-place tie. Cincinnati limits strikeouts to just 22.9%, setting them apart for quality from most of the more powerful teams ranked above them, and the active roster is 12% better than average creating runs against right-handed pitchers this season. Burnes is a very strong option in any matchup, but he is also extremely high priced at $11,500 on FanDuel and $10,600 on DraftKings, and he is pulling in significant ownership for such a large slate. He absolutely stands a great chance of putting up the night’s highest score, but his pricing pushes lineup construction in specific common directions, and it becomes difficult to separate from the field. An undercut to Burnes’ popularity, while still utilizing the pitcher, seems like a viable consideration. Getting meaningfully over the field on his ownership is a difficult proposition on such a large slate.

On the other side of this game, Mahle appears to be in the opposite position. He will be owned in the low single digits on both sites despite just a $9,200 salary on FanDuel and a $9,900 mark on DraftKings. Mahle is facing a Brewers active roster that is essentially league average. Milwaukee has a 3.84% home run rate against righties that ranks 11th in baseball, while their .172 collective ISO in the split is 10th. They create runs five percent worse than average in the split, and have an 18th ranked 24.1% strikeout rate against righties. This is not a total pushover of an opponent, but the Brewers are certainly not a team that forces Mahle out of consideration. He has thrown 135.2 innings in 25 starts this season, putting up a solid 3.78 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP. He walks too many at 8.1% but pulls in a strong 28% strikeout rate while inducing a 12% swinging strike rate and compiling a 29.5% CSW. Mahle allows a 7.3% barrel rate with 14.4-degree average launch angle and just a 34.6% hard-hit rate, leading to flyball outs and warning track power. As one of the lowest owned quality options on the slate, Mahle stands out as an excellent GPP play on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

Flaherty has been rock solid in his two starts back from a long injury absence. He completed six innings in both outings, facing 23 Brewers hitters his last time out and allowing just two runs on four hits, two of them home runs, while striking out eight and walking one. He posted a 3.64 xFIP and 29.9% strikeout rate over 196.1 innings in 2019 and a 3.42 xFIP with a 28.8% strikeout rate in 40.1 innings in 2020. In 13 starts in his shortened 2021, Flaherty has thrown 74 innings and struck out 26.9% of hitters. He yields a 7.9% barrel rate with a 40% hard hit, which leads to some run creation but not enough to be frightening against a Tigers team that sits 10% behind the average in run creation against righties. Detroit has a below-average .155 ISO and 3.27% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season, and they strike out a league-worst 25.9% in the split. This is a major upside opportunity for a pitcher of Flaherty’s quality, but the field will be on him in droves. Like Burnes, it is difficult to get to Flaherty in unique combinations, though his more user-friendly price tags of $9,600 on DraftKings and $10,300 on FanDuel provide some additional flexibility. Focusing on differentiation when rostering the Cardinals starter will be a key to success if he connects for a high-end score.

Bumgarner has seen better days, but he is not entirely off the table for MLB DFS purposes when he comes at an affordable price in a plus matchup. He has just a 21.1% rate over 106.1 innings this season, but he has been reliable for depth, eating innings for a bad Diamondbacks team in recent outings. In his last seven starts, Bumgarner has failed to complete six innings only once, in a five-inning one-strikeout performance that yielded no earned runs. He has routinely pitched into the seventh and eighth innings, keeping opposing teams off the runs ledger in the process. His strikeout totals remain modest, but in a system that rewards innings and provides quality start and win bonuses, there is something to be said for relatively safe depth. Bumgarner plays better as an SP2 on the DraftKings slate for just $7,100 and 13% ownership, compared to $8,800 and low single digits on the blue site. He should be more popular. The opposing Pirates are baseball’s worst offense when facing a lefty. Pittsburgh’s collective WRC+ sits 30% worse than average, the bottom mark in the league against either hand. They have a .125 ISO and a 2.21% home run rate in the split, both of which are the second-lowest marks in their respective categories against either hand. To top it off, the Pirates have a 24.2% strikeout rate that ranks 24th in the split. This is an extremely targetable team, Bumgarner deserves consideration in this spot.

Another starter drawing just single-digit attention across both sites is Houston’s Luis Garcia. He has thrown 116.2 innings this season and has a 28.9% strikeout rate that is one of the highest on the slate. Garcia has a steady 3.72 xFIP with a 1.11 WHIP and a 7.6% walk rate. He induces a 14% swinging strike rate and has an excellent 31.5% CSW. He yields a 7.4% barrel rate and a 39.9% hard-hit rate with 88.1 mph average exit velocity and a 17.1-degree average launch angle that plays to home run trajectory when he makes a rare mistake. Garcia has excellent upside in this start, though the opposing Royals have baseball’s fourth-best strikeout rate in the split at just 21.4%. Kansas City’s active roster is below average in every other category, coming in with a .145 ISO and a 3.01% home run rate, while creating runs 11% worse than average. Garcia has an opportunity to post clean innings, if he can find a few extra strikeouts along the way MLB DFS owners will have struck gold in rostering him.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are highly ranked among stacks on both sites, though they fall a few places higher on the DraftKings board for some home run upside, which plays more importantly on the site. Tampa Bay will be facing Suarez, a young lefty who has made four starts and thrown a total of 55 innings this season. Suarez has a 24% strikeout rate but an inflated 10.9% walk rate this season. He has a 3.67 xFIP and a 1.02 WHIP to go with just a 2.9% barrel rate and a -0.6-degree average launch angle and a 29.3% hard-hit rate. He has performed largely out of the bullpen to get to those excellent numbers, in four starts since transitioning to the rotation he has been relatively effective but limited to less than five innings in each outing. The active Rays roster has a 24.5% strikeout rate against southpaws that is well below average, and their .166 ISO and 3.56% home run rate in the split are only around the middle of the league. They create runs six percent ahead of the curve in the split, however, and they can certainly get to a developing young pitcher, as well as the bullpen that backs him. Go-to Rays bats include Randy Arozarena, Nelson Cruz, who it turns out did not have COVID-19 and is expected to be active, Austin Meadows, Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe. Meadows and Lowe are playable at low ownership despite the lefty-lefty matchup. Additional value can be found by including Yandy Diaz, Manny Margot and Mike Zunino in Rays stacks in varied combinations.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have been a regular feature in this space. They rank well on the Top Stacks Tool and are going slightly under-owned in an interesting matchup against southpaw Andrew Heaney. The largely right-handed and powerful Braves align well against Heaney who, for all his strikeout upside, struggles significantly with power and home runs. He allows a 9.6% barrel rate with a 39.5% hard hit and 18.5-degree average launch angle, relatively ideal home run ingredients. Heaney will face a Braves lineup that has a sixth-ranked 4.22% home run rate and a .187 collective ISO against lefties this season. Atlanta strikes out at a league average 23% rate and has a league average 100 collective WRC+ in the split. The Braves are projected for single-digit ownership up and down the lineup, starting with Ozzie Albies, Jorge Soler, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and Adam Duvall. The final two places in the lineup provide some mix and match as well as salary relief as needed, they are likely to be Guillermo Heredia and William Contreras.

Los Angeles Dodgers

This one may change by the time lock rolls around. The Dodgers are currently ranked as one of the better stacks for both probability of success and leverage. The reason for the potential change is that the Padres announced in the mid-afternoon that Pierce Johnson, a middling 30-year-old reliever, will be getting the start. With some sites having originally projected Yu Darvish for this start, that is a major upgrade for the Dodgers offense, and they are likely to gain popularity. Los Angeles is an above average offense in every meaningful way. Los Angeles strikes out just 22.2% of the time against righties, and they have a .181 ISO with a 4.14% home run rate in the split, leading to run creation that sits 11% better than average. The Dodgers lineup is a list of playable MLB DFS options, they can be rostered from one through eight in the batting order, but the key plays include Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and Corey Seager from the top half of the lineup. Cody Bellinger costs just $3,800 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel, adding first base eligibility on the blue site. Bellinger is struggling at .174/.258/.336 with a .162 ISO and just nine home runs in his 264 plate appearances, but he has upside. A.J. Pollock, utilityman extraordinaire Chris Taylor and catcher Will Smith are all playable options in the back end of the Dodgers lineup.

Houston Astros

The Astros rank near the top of the stacks board this afternoon. Houston falls short of the two top-ranked squads, coming up with about half the probability of being the night’s highest scoring stack when compared to the Angels and Red Sox. Both of those teams will be significantly more popular, however, creating a bubble of opportunity around the under-owned Astros. With reasonably good affordable pitching available, and under-owned to boot, Houston is an attainable target this evening. Brady Singer has had an OK debut season, throwing 98 innings in 21 starts and pitching to a 4.17 xFIP. He strikes out just 22.1% while walking 9.3%, however, numbers that can lead to trouble for run creation and sequencing. Singer has an unsightly 1.60 WHIP and induces just a 9.7% swinging strike rate, while limiting barrels to just 4.6% He yields just a 35.8% mark for the season. Still, with this many balls in play and the added free passes with an inability to strike hitters out, Singer is in significant danger against baseball’s most stingy team. The Astros lead the league in limiting strikeouts against both hands, coming in with a 20.3% rate in the split against righties. They are baseball’s best offense against both hands as well, their collective WRC+ against righties sits 21% ahead of the average, topped only by their own mark against lefties, which sits 22% ahead of the curve. Houston has a .187 ISO and a 4.19% home run rate in the split.

Jose Altuve costs $4,300 on the FanDuel slate and $5,400 on DraftKings and is worth the salary when pulling low single-digit ownership projections. Altuve is slashing .280/.352/.489 with a .209 ISO this season. He has 25 home runs and creates runs 33% ahead of the league average.

Michael Brantley is slashing .315/.368/.454 this year, with eight home runs and a .139 ISO. While the power is largely out these days, Brantley is an excellent option to get on base and score runs along with his teammates. Brantley creates runs 32% better than average by WRC+ this season. He belongs in Astros stacks and is too cheap on DraftKings at $3,900 and at $3,200 on FanDuel.

Carlos Correa costs a mere $4,500 on DraftKings but comes in at $4,000 on FanDuel. He will be owned, like his teammates, in the low single digits. Correa has a .200 ISO and a WRC+ that sits 36% ahead of the average. He is slashing .275/.367/.47, makes hard contact 42.6% of the time and has a 9.1% barrel rate while striking out just 18.7% of the time and walking 12.4%. Correa is mispriced at a premium position on the DraftKings slate and is a fine option at a fair salary on FanDuel.

Yordan Alvarez has a 52.8% hard-hit rate and a 14.4% barrel rate on the season. Alvarez has translated that contact into 25 home runs and a .248 ISO in his 451 plate appearances, creating runs 43% ahead of the league average. He still strikes out too much, (24.6%) and does not walk enough (7.5%), but he is clearly one of baseball’s bright young stars. Alvarez is slashing .285/.348/.533 this season and costs $5,300 on DraftKings and $4,300 on FanDuel.

Yuli Gurriel has posted a steady triple-slash at .317/.383/.479, hitting 13 home runs and compiling a .162 ISO along the way. The power is not what it once may have been, but Gurriel is second on the team with a WRC+ 40% ahead of league average. Including Gurriel’s mark, the first five hitters in this lineup have an average WRC+ 37% ahead of league average.

Aledmys Diaz is slashing .302/.351/.476 with a .175 ISO over 248 plate appearances this season, helping keep the hot corner warm for Alex Bregman, who is on the verge of a return to the lineup. There is some chance that Bregman could return to the lineup today. If it is Diaz in this spot, he is a very playable option.

Chas McCormick has translated a 50.7% hard-hit rate and 12.2% barrel rate into 11 home runs and a .205 ISO. He creates runs 16% better than average which, while not quite measuring up to his teammates, is an excellent mark for MLB DFS purposes. McCormick is cheap at $2,500 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel. He is an excellent option to help offset cost or create unique combinations with positioning while not sacrificing the upside that would normally come from dropping to this spot in a lineup.

Jake Meyers has a .250 ISO, a 54.5% hard-hit rate and a 15.2% barrel rate over his first 52 plate appearances. The sample is microscopic, and Meyers is an unranked afterthought of a prospect at age 25, but he may be in the midst of a leap. He made an additional 304 plate appearances in Triple-A this season, responding with 16 home runs, 10 stolen bases, a .343/.408/.598 triple-slash, a .255 ISO and a WRC+ 44% better than average. While he is not an All-Star, Meyers clearly has upside for the price and popularity in this lineup.

Catcher Martin Maldonado is slashing just .177/.283/.309 over 332 plate appearances this season. He has a 30.1% strikeout rate, though he does walk 11.7% of the time. Maldonado makes just 32.3% hard contact and has a 4.8% barrel rate that leads to just a .132 ISO and run creation 29% behind the average. He is fine to take along with stacks where the position is needed but is a bit too much to carry where it is not. He has some upside, but there are simply better options across the industry.

HR Call: Nate Lowe — Texas Rangers

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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