MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 8/31/21

Tuesday features a nearly full slate, with 13 games on FanDuel and 14 (with one seven-inning game) on the DraftKings slate. A handful of high-end, pricey pitchers are available for MLB DFS lineups on Tuesday night, but there is a broad mid-range that projects well by comparison. Several of the premium pitching options are in difficult matchups, which serves to level the field to a degree and makes it a night to spread out ownership for GPP play. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, there seems to be enough value on the mound to put together extremely high-end hitting combinations on this slate, making it an ideal day to target some large-field, high-payout MLB DFS GPPs.

Daily Fantasy Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte — 7.00

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 8.41

Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 10.56

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 10.40

Chicago Cubs: Jason Heyward — 2.24

Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal — 8.28

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 14.53

Colorado Rockies: Brendan Rodgers — 11.84

Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 5.09

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker — 9.43

Kansas City Royals: Hunter Dozier — 6.75

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 11.41

Los Angeles Dodgers: Mookie Betts — 6.26

Milwaukee Brewers: Willy Adames — 7.51

Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 6.55

New York Yankees: Joey Gallo — 9.49

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 22.91

Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 10.29

Pittsburgh Pirates: Yoshi Tsutsugo — 7.99

San Diego Padres: Tommy Pham — 5.62

San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 4.47

Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 5.08

Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 8.15

Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 6.18

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 9.57

Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman — 13.26


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS lineup picks today DraftKings FanDUel top stacks optimal lineup optimizer Free fantasy baseball rankings yahoo espn cbs projections home run predictions stacks rockies nationals orioles blue jays astros phillies white sox braves red sox padres angels yankees

MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Tuesday’s deep pitching board takes an interesting shape and comes up differently from DraftKings to FanDuel based on several highly divergent price points. The slate is topped in terms of probability of success by Lucas Giolito who will face the low-end Pirates offense. He is the prime example of the strange pricing from site to site, Giolito costs an appropriate $10,200 on FanDuel but somehow an outrageously low $8,800 on DraftKings. Numerous quality arms follow Giolito on the board, including Walker Buehler in a tough spot against the burly Braves bats, Brandon Woodruff against the great Giants bats, and Lance McCullers Jr. taking on the mediocre Mariners. The Padres will have a stretched-out Blake Snell on the mound against the Diamondbacks. On DraftKings Snell is cheap and will be owned by the public at a rate approaching twice his probability of being a top-two arm. Additional options with better leverage marks and similar prices in that tier include Jameson Taillon, Zac Gallen, Austin Gomber, Hyun Jin Ryu, Tarik Skubal and Charlie Morton. Any of those pitchers would make an effective SP2 on DraftKings for large pools of entries, they should be mixed and matched with an eye on the leverage column in the Top Starters Tool prior to lock.

Giolito has thrown 154 innings in 26 starts this season. He is striking out 28.3% of hitters while walking 7.0% with a 3.69 xFIP and a steady 1.10 WHIP. Giolito has induced a 15.5% swinging-strike rate and has a 30.3% CSW on the season while allowing a 7.3% barrel rate and just a 35.4% hard-hit percentage. His .366 expected slugging percentage allowed sits in the 64th percentile in baseball, against this Pirates team he should have no difficulty limiting power upside and run scoring. The Pirates’ active roster has just a .130 ISO and 2.51% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season, both marks landing in the bottom few teams in baseball. They create runs 19% worse than average while striking out at a 23.4% clip against righties, this is an excellent team to target with good pitchers. The field is flocking to the flawed price on the DraftKings slate, Giolito will be extremely popular for the money and pivots should be considered while still rostering him in a fair number of lineups. The FanDuel price has ownership around half the projected ownership across the industry, but Giolito will still be a popular play on a broad slate.

Buehler is in a difficult matchup against a Braves offense that has a .195 ISO and a 4.66% home run rate against right-handed pitching on the season. Atlanta is loaded with power, though a fair amount of it hits from the right side of the plate. Surprisingly, the Braves offense creates runs at just the league average in the split, and they have a below-average 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Buehler is extremely expensive at $11,300 on the FanDuel slate, pushing him to the low single-digits in ownership on the blue site. The DraftKings price lands at a more reasonable $10,500, which has him owned at a more significant rate. He has thrown 169 innings this season, third in baseball in innings pitched, and he has 23 quality starts in 26 outings. Buehler has a 27.1% strikeout rate, 3.50 xFIP, and a 0.92 WHIP and does well in limiting quality contact, with a 6.7% barrel rate and a 35.5% hard-hit percentage. He should have a good chance at suppressing the Braves high octane power-based offense and can claw back any home run damage via strikeout upside. He is an expensive way to differentiate lineups across the industry and is worthy of consideration for tournament play.

McCullers and Kikuchi will duel in an interesting game at the end of the night. He is the more highly projected and likely to succeed between the two starters. Kikuchi will be facing a deadly Astros offense that stands as one of baseball’s best against both hands. There is a chance that he could have a good outing. The odds seem stacked against him in a matchup with an Astros squad that creates runs 22% better than average in the split. Add his propensity for yielding barrels at an 11% rate and hard hits at a whopping 45.2% and there are numerous reasons for concern. McCullers, on the other hand, has a stronger strikeout rate at 27.8% and yields just a 5.6% barrel rate and 39.3% hard hit. He walks too many at 11% for the season, but he induces a 12.1% swinging-strike rate and has a strong 31.6% CSW in his 22 starts. He will face a Mariners lineup that has a .160 ISO and a 3.87% home run rate against right-handed pitching. They strike out 25.7% of the time in the split, the third-worst mark in the league, and they create runs 10% below average. This is a targetable team and McCullers is underpriced at $9,200 on FanDuel, where he will be negatively leveraged. He is more expensive but lands at positive leverage on the DraftKings slate, which is noteworthy and something to target on this slate.

Woodruff is an underpriced option on the DraftKings slate at $9,400, which has him projected for popularity despite the difficult spot against the Dodgers. On FanDuel he comes at a more user-friendly ownership projection and a playable $10,600 price. Woodruff has a 29.9% strikeout rate over 151.1 innings in 25 starts this season. He has a 3.03 xFIP and a 0.93 WHIP and walks just 6.3% of opposing hitters. He induces a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and limits barrels to just 4.8%. Woodruff has a 29.6% hard-hit rate and 85.4 mph average exit velocity that comes at a 9.6-degree average launch angle. The Giants are a good offense, they have a .199 ISO and a 4.56% home run rate that land among the league’s best marks against right-handed pitching this season, and they create runs 8% better than average in the split. San Francisco strikes out at a 24.7% clip, however, the eighth worst in baseball. While Woodruff may not be entirely safe on paper, he has the talent and the pitching profile to limit San Francisco’s run creation and power upside. He should be able to find a few strikeouts in the swing-and-miss heavy lineup, adding to his appeal. Woodruff is firmly in the mix among the top arms, regardless of the tough opponent.

At $8,200 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Austin Gomber is an interesting low-owned option. He is projected for less than 10% ownership across the industry despite a plus matchup against the Rangers. Gomber has provided quality in spots throughout the season, though his season-long splits show far more effectiveness through his 78.1 first-half innings. In that sample, Gomber posted a 3.68 ERA and a 3.70 xFIP with a 24% strikeout rate. In his 32.2 second-half innings, Gomber has an unsightly 6.06 ERA with a 4.64 xFIP and a 23.6% strikeout rate. Overall, that comes to a 23.9% strikeout rate and a 3.99 xFIP. He yields too many barrels at 9.2%, but he has a terrific 33.9% hard-hit rate and allows just 88 mph average exit velocity. He draws a Rangers team with an active roster that does well at limiting left-handed pitchers to a 21.3% strikeout rate, but they are awful at everything else. Texas has a .122 collective ISO with a 2.26% home run rate in the split, both of which are at the absolute bottom of the league against either hand. Their 78 collective WRC+ in the split is better than only Gomber’s own team’s 76 against right-handed pitching this season, this team is terrible for both power and run creation. Gomber stands a strong chance of posting at least a clean start, and it would not be surprising to see him find a few bonus strikeouts, depending on the final shape of the Rangers lineup. He is by no means completely safe, but at low cost and low ownership, this is an interesting pitcher who is not getting enough attention.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies stand out for their power upside despite atrocious season-long marks on the road and against right-handed pitching. Colorado is facing Jordan Lyles, a righty with an 18.3% strikeout rate and a 4.97 xFIP over 142 innings this season. Lyles allows a 9.8% barrel rate and a 43.9% hard-hit with 90.8 mph average exit velocity at a 17.1-degree average launch angle, making him a prime target for home run power. The Rockies have just a 3.16% home run rate and a .158 ISO against righties this season, and they create runs at the previously mentioned league-low mark of 24% below average by WRC+. Still, the Rockies are exploding for home run potential in my model and cannot be ignored as one of the top-ranked stacks with positive leverage on the DraftKings slate. They will be slightly over-owned on FanDuel, but they still look like a solid play that can be rostered in unique combinations. Key bats include Connor Joe, Brendan Rodgers, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, C.J. Cron and Ryan McMahon. With Raimel Tapia back from injury and Samuel Hilliard providing power upside from the back of the lineup with an added designated hitter, the Rockies have a few low-cost, low-owned plays as well. Catcher Elias Diaz is interesting on the DraftKings slate. He has hit 15 home runs and has a .223 ISO over his 291 plate appearances this season, though he creates runs 12% behind the curve by WRC+.

New York Yankees

The Yankees are one of the top-ranked teams on today’s Top Stacks Tool. The active roster is surprisingly average against right-handed pitching in season-long numbers, coming in with just a .164 ISO and a 3.92% home run rate, a 24.6% strikeout rate and a collective WRC+ that is 2% below average. That does nothing to temper expectations for this lineup in this matchup. The Yankees are in Los Angeles to face Jaime Barria, who has a 12.6% strikeout rate over 34 innings in six starts. Barria has allowed a 39.8% hard-hit rate with a 15.1-degree average launch angle and 89.8 mph average exit velocity, though he limits barrels to 5.9% in the small sample. With an inflated 8.6% walk rate, Barria is extremely targetable for sequencing and run creation, and the Yankees’ power upside is obvious enough on most slates. New York’s main bats include the underpriced (and underperforming but improving) D.J. LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo and Gary Sanchez. Depending on the final configuration of the lineup, additional options may include Luke Voit, Brett Gardner, Gio Urshela and Andrew Velazquez.

Houston Astros

The expensive Astros are under-owned and showing strong positive leverage marks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as usual. Houston’s active roster’s strikeout rate against left-handed pitching has been baseball’s best against either hand dating to at least the start of the 2018 season, they stand a strong chance at putting the ball in play and creating runs even against a quality opponent. Houston can be rostered from all throughout the lineup. Monitoring individual Ownership Projections will help with critical decisions between the quality that exists from top to bottom in the final batting order.

Oakland Athletics

Tarik Skubal is a highly regarded prospect who has fared well in his first foray into the majors. After throwing 32 innings in seven starts in the shortened 2020 season, Skubal has made 23 starts and thrown 128 innings this year. In the full sample, he has a 4.21 xFIP and a 26.7% strikeout rate thus far. Where he has struggled, however, has been with contact. Skubal has yielded a 12.8% barrel rate this season that does not pair at all well with a 44.2% hard-hit rate. He adds a 15.7-degree average launch angle and 90.5 mph average exit velocity to the mix, creating the ideal recipe for home run power. Oakland vaults to the top of the power index based on my home run model.

The leadoff spot in the Athletics lineup is likely to go to either Josh Harrison or Mark Canha, with the one not in this spot dropping to sixth or seventh in the batting order. Harrison slots into both second base and shortstop on DraftKings and is a second or third baseman on the FanDuel slate. He costs $3,600 and $2,700 across those sites respectively and is projected as one of the more heavily owned Oakland bats. For the season, Harrison has a .289/.359/.430 slash, eight home runs, eight stolen bases, a .141 ISO and 115 WRC+.

Starling Marte is slashing .317/.396/.453 for the season and has stolen 42 bases, leading the league despite making just 403 plate appearances. Whit Merrifield has swiped 38 bases but needed 574 plate appearances to get them. Marte creates runs 38% better than average and his speed plays extremely well with his on-base acumen. He has nine home runs and has just a .136 ISO this season, but he is an excellent correlation play that will be under-owned on this slate.

Matt Olson is slashing .273/.373/.548 with 32 home runs and a .275 ISO. He creates runs 51% better than average this season and makes excellent contact. Olson barrels the ball in 13% of batted-ball events and has a 48.4% hard-hit rate on the season. He has a fantastic 16.5% strikeout rate with an excellent 12.5% walk rate this year. Olson is projected for at or under 2%  ownership across the industry, with a $5,700 price on DraftKings and a $3,900 salary on FanDuel. He also comfortably in leads the home run model.

Yan Gomes is slashing .326/.326/.609 with a .283 ISO in 92 plate appearances against southpaws and just .236/.302/.374 with a .137 ISO in 199 plate appearances against same-handed pitching. He has hit six home runs against each hand, but the rates are obviously quite different. For his career, he has a .209 ISO and 4.18% home run rate against lefties. At over 10% ownership for a $3,900 salary, Gomes is a popular catcher play on the DraftKings slate. The position is not required on FanDuel, but he costs just $2,600 and will be similarly popular.

Jed Lowrie has second base eligibility on DraftKings, and he adds eligibility at third base to that on the blue site. Lowrie has a solid 47.2% hard-hit rate this season and he barrels the ball 9.3% of the time. He has 13 home runs, a .147 ISO, .250/.325/.397 slash and 104 WRC+.

Canha comes in slashing .233/.360/.388 with a .155 ISO over 495 plate appearances this season. He has two home runs and 12 stolen bases while creating runs 17% better than average. These are solid numbers, but they fall well short of the excellent .273/.396/.517 season with 26 home runs and a .244 ISO that he posted in 2019. Canha created runs 47% better than average that season, showing the overall upside in the player on any given slate. He is slightly better against lefties for his career, which only adds to the appeal. Canha should be rostered more than he is by the public, though if he vaults to the top of the confirmed lineup, his popularity will surely grow.

Matt Chapman comes in at a $3,500 price on FanDuel and a $5,000 salary on DraftKings, creating slightly different ownership situations across the industry. He is highly playable on both sites and should be included in Athletics stacks. Chapman is slashing just .221/.319/.404 on the season, and he has a .183 ISO, but his run creation still stands 4% above average. He has seen an uptick in production through August, hitting seven home runs and slashing .244/.372/.526 while creating runs 51% better than average this month.

Chad Pinder costs just $2,700 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel. He has made just 161 plate appearances this season and is slashing .205/.273/.342 with a .137 ISO while creating runs 26% worse than average. He has not been good in the small sample, though he has displayed an excellent ability to make quality contact. Pinder has a 51% hard-hit rate and a 14.7% barrel rate, both of which are team-leading this season, though his teammates’ samples are all much larger. He is a flawed .239/.299/.419 hitter with a .180 ISO who creates runs 5% worse than average and strikes out 26.4% of the time over 1,174 career plate appearances.

Elvis Andrus has a .077 ISO, 63 WRC+, 33.6% hard-hit rate, 2.2% barrel rate, 228/.274/.305 slash, three home runs and 12 stolen bases. He will be low owned but is not a great wrap-around option given the general inability to get on base.

HR Call: Matt Olson — Oakland Athletics

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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