Wednesday’s MLB DFS slate has already seen a pair of washouts, with the Phillies – Nationals and Marlins – Mets games postponing as the remnants of Hurricane Ida enter the area. The remaining slate now features nine games on both sites and offers up a wide range of strong pitching options but a lack of a significant mid-range. This leads to a top-heavy setup to the slate and ownership that will likely be concentrated around a few of the best teams against bad starters. Utilizing the Top Stacks Tool to navigate ownership on bats and checking in with the Awesemo MLB DFS projections will be critical for GPP play on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Daily Fantasy Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Adam Duvall — 10.98
Baltimore Orioles: Cedric Mullins — 10.06
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 10.80
Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ — 11.23
Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert — 3.22
Cleveland Indians: Oscar Mercado — 4.10
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 10.26
Kansas City Royals: Whit Merrifield — 8.27
Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton — 11.04
Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Smith — 8.50
Milwaukee Brewers: Rowdy Tellez — 6.46
Minnesota Twins: Miguel Sano — 11.19
New York Yankees: Joey Gallo — 17.96
Oakland Athletics: Mark Canha — 8.89
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 5.36
San Francisco Giants: Darin Ruf — 6.08
Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 11.25
Toronto Blue Jays: Corey Dickerson — 6.08
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Wednesday’s pitching slate features a wealth of quality at the top end of the salary spectrum but comes up short through the middle with only a few playable options below the top tier. The top end of the slate includes Gerrit Cole who will be facing the Angels in an early Los Angeles game, Max Scherzer taking on the Braves, Carlos Rodon against the pushover Pirates, Chris Sale facing a Rays team that is far worse against left-handed pitching, and Kevin Gausman in an interesting matchup against the Brewers. The playable middle includes just three names, with James Kaprielian landing in the best matchup, facing the Tigers. Max Fried is in a challenging spot on the other side of the Braves – Dodgers game and Steven Matz is difficult to trust and draws an upstart Orioles offense.
Cole leads the Yankees against an Angels team with an active roster that is decidedly average against right-handed pitching this season. For the year, Los Angeles has a .165 ISO and a 3.38% home run rate in the split, both of which land in the exact middle of the league. The Angels have a 23.9% strikeout rate that is slightly sub-par, and they create runs just 1% better than average in the split. Cole has major upside in a start against a non-threatening team, though any of the individual power hitters could get to him for minor damage. Cole is the leading contender for the American League Cy Young Award, coming in with a 34.3% strikeout rate over 148 innings in 24 starts this season. The right-handed ace walks just 5.5% of opposing hitters and has pitched to a sparkling 2.84 xFIP while inducing a 14.8% swinging-strike rate and a 32.5% CSW. He still yields more barrels than one would expect, when hitters are able to make contact at all they barrel the ball 9.4% of the time, but Cole has his hard-hit rate under control at 38% and he is fantastic at pitching his way out of the limited amounts of trouble that may find him. Cole is popular at $11,200 on FanDuel and will be in nearly half of all lineups at a borderline-inexplicable $9,900 price on DraftKings. The field is ahead of his probability of being the top option on both sites, but Cole is highly playable across the industry.
Scherzer has been every bit the ace that Cole has throughout the year. He has a 34.6% strikeout rate with a 3.31 xFIP over 140 innings in his 24 outings. Scherzer walks a few more at 6.1% but he induces a healthy 15.8% swinging-strike rate and has a 31.7% CSW. Scherzer yields a 9.9% barrel rate but has just a 34% hard-hit and 88.3 mph average exit velocity. This is a pitcher who can be rostered against any lineup in any situation, but in comparison to other options on this slate, his opponent warrants consideration. Scherzer is expensive in a matchup against the Braves, a team with a .194 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Atlanta’s active roster has a 4.65% home run rate in the split, the third-highest mark in baseball. Atlanta has created runs 1% below average, and they strike out worse than average in the split at 24.2%, which should play well for the pitcher, but their power bats make him slightly less safe than usual. Despite the more difficult situation and the slightly lesser stat-line, Scherzer costs more than Cole on both sites, coming in at $11,500 on FanDuel and $10,900 on DraftKings. The inflated price is doing little to abate the significant public popularity, undercutting the field and spreading to more positively leveraged plays, while still getting to plenty of Scherzer, could be an appropriate approach.
Rodon has thrown 114.2 innings in 20 starts this season, pitching to a 3.04 xFIP and a 0.97 WHIP. He has an excellent 35.1% strikeout rate and induces a 15.4% swinging-strike rate this season, with a 30.3% CSW. He allows just a 6.9% barrel rate and 37.8% hard hits with an 89.5 mph average exit velocity allowed. He is one of the top left-handed starters in baseball and comes into this slate at a fair price and reasonable ownership. Rodon draws an anemic Pirates offense that has just a 2.52% home run rate and a .141 collective ISO against lefties this year. The Pittsburgh active roster strikes out just 22.5% of the time in the split but comes up with a WRC+ that falls 23% short of the league average. Rodon is under-owned on the FanDuel slate at $10,200 and will be appropriately popular for $10,100 across town.
Sale has been excellent since his return to the Red Sox rotation. He has made three starts, pitching 15.1 innings and pulling in a 2.47 xFIP with a 34.4% strikeout rate in the short sample. Sale is inducing a 15.4% swinging-strike rate and has a 33.3% CSW so far, seemingly not missing a beat from his pre-injury form. He had a 36.7% strikeout rate from 2017-2019 before going down with an injury, it is no secret that he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. The excellent Tampa Bay Rays offense comes up significantly shorter against lefties than on the other side of splits. In games against southpaws the active roster for the Rays has just a .164 ISO and a 3.54% home run rate in the split, though they still create runs 5% ahead of the league average. The Rays strike out at a 24.4% clip in the split, tied for the fourth-worst mark in baseball against lefties. Sale will still be challenged by this team, but he has the talent to get through the lineup cleanly while racking up bonus strikeouts. This is a strong spot for a starter who will be low owned across the industry by comparison to his peers.
New York Yankees
The Yankees will back up Cole with their ridiculously powerful lineup in a matchup against Packy Naughton. Naughton has thrown 5.1 innings in the Majors in his career so far, 4.1 of which came in a relief appearance last week. He is scheduled for a standard start, though a lefty with just an 8% strikeout rate might not last long against this offense. Naughton walked 12% of hitters and has a 6.09 xFIP in that small sample, and he was pitching to a 4.41 xFIP and a 21.7% strikeout rate in 56.2 innings in Triple-A this season, numbers that will not strike fear into the hearts of hitters like D.J. LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, Luke Voit or Gary Sanchez. Beyond that list, potential Yankees hitters could include Gio Urshela, Brett Gardner, Andrew Velazquez, and backup catcher Kyle Higashioka who may get the start with Cole on the mound and Sanchez struggling again. The Yankees are one of the highest-ranked teams on the Top Stacks Tool today and they are trending to be slightly under-owned.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are profiling well in a matchup against Max Fried. He has a 23.6% strikeout rate and a 3.59 xFIP this season, and he has been effective at limiting quality contact with just a 6.5% barrel rate and a 34% hard-hit percentage. The Dodgers’ loaded lineup manages to overcome Fried’s talents in projections, though their probability of being the top option is ranked several spots down the board. Where the Dodgers truly stand out is for a positive leverage mark on both DraftKings and FanDuel on this slate. Los Angeles is on the list of clubs that should just be rostered when the public falls short on them, they are one of the best overall lineups in baseball in any situation. Starting from the top, the team can be rostered from one through nine on most slates. Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Will Smith, AJ Pollock, and Chris Taylor would make a good All-Star Team roster. The lineup is so good that Cody Bellinger cannot even crack it against left-handed pitching due to his now season-long slump.
Baltimore Orioles
On the road to face Steven Matz in Toronto, the Orioles stand out as a well-ranked team that is also at positive leverage on both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. The Orioles active rosters comes into the night with a .184 ISO and a 4.08% home run rate in the split, and they create runs 8% better than average while striking out around a league-average 23.5% of the time against lefties. Matz, meanwhile, has merely a 21.9% strikeout rate overall this season, while pitching to a 3.99 xFIP and a 1.32 WHIP over 118 innings. He has a 28.1% CSW and a 9.4% swinging-strike rate, though he has been effective with contact, landing at a 7.0% barrel rate and a respectable 36.8% hard-hit. Matz remains targetable for sequential hitting and run creation, in this situation and the under-owned Orioles are appealing with a touch of power upside.
Cedric Mullins is slashing .304/.368/.527 with 24 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 551 plate appearances. He has a .223 ISO and has created runs 44% better than average thanks to the individual prowess and his ability to get on base and correlate strongly with hitters later in the lineup. Mullins strikes out just 18.9% of the time, putting the ball in play frequently and generating offense as the team’s primary sparkplug. The $5,100 salary on DraftKings is entirely warranted, and he is far too cheap at just $3,400 on FanDuel.
Ryan Mountcastle has hit 25 home runs in 460 plate appearances in his first full season in the Show. He is slashing .268/.315/.504 with a .235 ISO and has created runs 19% better than average, while barreling the ball a team-leading 12.1% of the time. Mountcastle has excellent upside for power, though he strikes out at a 26.3% clip that somewhat limits MLB DFS production in spots. At $3,500 and with first base and outfield eligibility on FanDuel and at just first base on DraftKings, Mountcastle is an excellent option in Orioles stacks.
Trey Mancini has a 41.2% hard-hit rate and an 11.4% barrel rate on the year, and he profiles as the Orioles top-ranked home run option in the model today. He has both first base and outfield eligibility on both sites and comes in at just $4,100 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel. This in spite of his performance over 524 plate appearances in which he hit 20 home runs and is slashing .256/.317/.444 with a .188 ISO. Mancini creates runs 7% ahead of the curve, and his multi-position utility helps move pieces around the board for combining the Orioles with other team stacks.
Switch-hitter Anthony Santander is now slashing .248/.296/.443 with 14 home runs on the season and has his ISO up to .196 over 356 plate appearances. His 42.3% hard-hit rate is second in the projected lineup though his barrel rate slips to 8.9%. Santander is a $3,700 option on DraftKings, a price that is too low for his talents in general and one that makes this an easy club to roster through the heart of the order. He is priced at $3,500 on FanDuel, tying him for the most expensive option on the club, but his sub-1% ownership projection makes him incredibly appealing.
Austin Hays is slashing .247/.294/.427 with a .180 ISO and 14 home runs over 401 plate appearances this season. He strikes out at a 20.4% rate and makes 39.8% hard contact with a 9.2% barrel rate. Hays is inexpensive, despite creating runs 4% behind the curve by WRC+ he has sneaky speed, though his four stolen bases this year do not truly show it.
Infielder Ramon Urias fills in at third base or shortstop on DraftKings and second base on FanDuel. He is very cheap at $2,400 on the blue site and $3,200 on DraftKings, where he will be the second-most popular player on this team. Urias is slashing .272/.352/.421 while quietly creating runs 16% better than average over his 256 plate appearances this year. Urias has a 42.8% hard-hit rate and a 10.8% barrel rate that ranks third on the Orioles. Urias has upside, and his positioning and price are advantageous.
Catcher Pedro Severino costs $3,600 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel. He is inexpensive to fill out the position where required but more of an afterthought where catchers are less important. Severino is slashing .236/.299/.382 with 10 home runs and a .146 ISO on the season. He creates runs 14% worse than average and is skippable unless filling positional requirements.
Jorge Mateo costs $2,300 on FanDuel, which pushes his projected popularity below one percent. Mateo is available at both second base and shortstop on DraftKings and adds outfield eligibility but drops shortstop on FanDuel. Mateo is slashing .261/.300/.391 over 171 plate appearances this season, with three home runs and nine stolen bases. He is known for his blazing speed but needs to get on base more frequently. Until the on-base numbers climb, Mateo is not much more than a semi-playable add-on to Orioles stacks.
Jahmai Jones adds additional flexibility to the team’s lineup configurations, but he is just a second baseman on DraftKings, where he also costs the minimum salary. Jones has made just 24 plate appearances in the Majors this year and had seven last season. He made 290 plate appearances in 69 Triple-A games this season, slashing .238/.329/.417 with 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases. He has minor upside at the discounted price and a total lack of ownership.
HR Call: Ryan Mountcastle — Baltimore Orioles
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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