MLB DFS Picks: Wednesday, August 29th has a brief two game early slate and then twenty-two teams in action on the main game set for Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
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For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel MLB
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings MLB
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo MLB
[table id=1201 /]
Gerrit Cole
While this isn’t the best matchup in the world, Cole transcends matchups. The Rays are an average matchup across the board. Cole, however, is far from it. He has the second highest strikeout rate on the slate behind Scherzer (34.6% to 34.5%) and the second lowest SIERA (also behind Scherzer). Now, since Max is still working his way back from injury, he can’t be expected to go deep enough in the game to pay off his salary. That leaves Cole as the clear top expensive arm on the slate. It’s a bit a tricky to get to Cole with a lack of cheap pitchers to pair him with, but I think it’s worth it given the arms around him.
Anthony DeSclafani
This is the best matchup DeSclafani could ever have. The Marlins lineup leans heavily to the right side which fits DeSclafani like a glove. Miami has the second lowest wRC+ in the league against righties. Meanwhile, DeSclafani is lethal to right handed hitters. He has a 25% strikeout rate and .126 xISO allowed since 2018. He struggles mightily with lefties, but the park and lineup should help him out a ton. He’s currently my top value of the slate, and I expect him to be heavily owned. He’s a no-brainer cash option.
Mike Foltynewicz
If DeSclafani’s ownership gets out of hand, I think Folty is an excellent pivot. The Blue Jays have a 24.6% strikeout rate against righties and have a below average wRC+. They have some pop, so it’s not fully safe, but Foltynewicz rarely gets bombed when healthy. Since 2018, he has allowed a .300 xwOBA to LHH and a .293 xwOBA to RHH. As long as he can avoid the long ball, I expect a solid start at a mid-tier price tag. Because Toronto has such a low OBP, I think he should be able to avoid the soul-crushing multi-run homerun.
Looking for more FREE MLB DFS content? Check out our MLB Strategy show from this morning where we broke down the slate game-by-game and talked over all relevant players!
