MLB DFS Picks: Justin Verlander & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, August 21 (FREE)

MLB DFS: Wednesday, August 21st brings us a getaway day split slate on DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft with all the games in play per the norm on Yahoo. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.


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For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here


I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

[table id=1177 /]

DraftKings MLB

[table id=1178 /]

Yahoo MLB

[table id=1201 /]

Justin Verlander

Time to make the heroic case of rostering Verlander against his former Tigers. Not sure how I’ll be able to take such a massive leap of faith.

This is a next-level spot for Verlander. The Tigers are atrocious across the board. Verlander has massive strikeout stuff. I really don’t know what else to say. There are days where I see the reasons to not pay up for pitching. Today isn’t that day. Verlander can break the entire slate.

Yu Darvish

Darvish looks like the best pivot to Verlander if you need to free up a chunk of salary. While the Giants aren’t a fantastic strikeout matchup, the other factors are all in Darvish’s favor. The wind appears to be coming in directly from center, which should greatly suppress scoring. Darvish’s biggest issue is left handed power. Wrigley Field has a LHH HR park factor of 93. That’s the fifth most difficult park for lefty power. Meanwhile, Darvish has struck out 34% of righties over the past two seasons. This is simply a great spot for Darvish. On a different slate, he could even be my top arm.

Adrian Houser

Paying down for an SP2 is a bit of a tough sell. Drew Smyly could be a high risk option, but attacking the Red Sox seems like a recipe for disaster. The perpetually owned Joe Musgrove is sitting there at $5900, but that’s no fun. Luckily, Houser is here to save the day. The Cardinals are a middle of the pack strikeout team against righties, but their active roster has a wRC+ of 89. Their isolated power ranks 27th. While Houser has given up a bit of power to lefties, it seems to be over-represented. He has a .200 ISO to lefties, but only a .141 xISO. Luckily, the Cardinals don’t really have any lefty power. In 1263 plate appearances, lefties for the Cardinals have a .153 ISO against right handed pitching. That’s only higher than the Royals and White Sox. (Side note: the White Sox ISO in this situation is .066!). This feels like a safe spot for Houser at a discount. He’ll be my most owned SP2.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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