MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel: August 27

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MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: n/a

Atlanta Braves: n/a

Baltimore Orioles: Renato Nunez – 8.56

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez – 14.11

Chicago Cubs: n/a

Chicago White Sox: n/a

Cincinnati Reds: n/a

Cleveland Indians: n/a

Colorado Rockies: Miguel Cabrera – 4.37

Detroit Tigers: n/a

Houston Astros: n/a

Kansas City Royals: n/a

Los Angeles Angels: n/a

Los Angeles Dodgers: n/a

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar – 5.42

Milwaukee Brewers: n/a

Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz – 19.78

New York Mets: Pete Alonso – 19.57

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: Khris Davis – 11.19

Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins – 10.03

Pittsburgh Pirates: n/a

San Diego Padres: n/a

San Francisco Giants: n/a

Seattle Mariners: n/a

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Hunter Renfroe – 18.73

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 7.00

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk – 12.96

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto – 18.48

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MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers – 1-3-4-6-9 – Semien – Chapman – Canha – Olson – Murphy

The A’s are drawing the second highest implied team total on the small slate early on. Taking on Jordan Lyles in Texas, the Athletics’ loaded lineup is in a good spot and will likely be one of the more popular options on the board. Lyles has a 13.6% strikeout rate, an 11.0% walk rate and has allowed five home runs in his limited 24-inning sample in 2020. In 2019, Lyles yielded 25 home runs in under 150 innings pitched, giving up a 2.13 HR/9 to left-handed hitters. This is someone we can target in MLB DFS if there is enough room in ownership numbers.

I always start these A’s looks off with the two Matts, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson, and that’s deserved. The mashers in the middle evoke thoughts of the Bash Brothers days with their ability to take pitches deep. Each has nine home runs on the season, and they cost a total of just $7,200 on FanDuel, $10,700 on DraftKings. With Marcus Semien leading off, we have an obvious trio with which to start our chalkier approaches to the A’s stack. Semien was at .202/.256/.339 with four home runs coming into action on Wednesday night, but he remains a fantastic MLB DFS option. The shortstop is coming off of a .285/.369/.522 year with 33 home runs and 123 RBIs. At just $3,000 on FanDuel it’s an easy decision.

Stephen Piscotty and Robbie Grossman are playing key roles in this lineup and are doing well when called upon. Piscotty is overall the better player of the two, but it’s likely we’ll see Grossman hitting second tomorrow. Either way we can work with these outfield options on both sites. Piscotty has a WRC+ 14% above league average on the season and costs just $2,900 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings, while Grossman is carrying a terrific .288/.436/.603 slash with four home runs, 13 RBIs, four stolen bases, a .315 ISO and a WRC+ 83% above average in his 92 plate appearances.

Mark Canha and Ramon Laureano are bouncing around the lineup a bit for the A’s. Canha is hitting cleanup in the projected lineup and Laureano is seventh, either could end up hitting higher or lower in the order but will provide a quality option in any spot. Canha is an underrated bat that we’ve touched on recently. In 497 plate appearances in 2019, he hit 26 home runs and had a WRC+ 46% above average. Laureano is a toolsy MLB DFS dream of a player who can go deep and steal bases in the same game.

He is doing a solid job getting on base at a .370 clip so far this year and makes a good option as a table setter or base clearer. Don’t sleep on Sean Murphy as a potentially inexpensive low-owned catcher play from late in this lineup. As we covered the other day, Murphy is currently sitting in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity and the 100th percentile in hard hit rate. He costs $4,400 on DraftKings, which might seem high to the public and keep people off of him. His $2,200 salary on FanDuel, where there is no requirement to play a catcher, makes him somewhat unpredictable.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals – Nationals – 1-2-3-4-6 – Turner – Eaton – Cabrera – Soto – Suzuki

The Phillies are in D.C. to play the Nationals, and they’ll have rookie Spencer Howard toeing the rubber tomorrow night. This is a potential MLB DFS hot spot and I like the looks of the Nationals stack going against the young pitcher. Howard is a high-end prospect with a bright future. In 2020 he has a 5.40 xFIP over his 11 2/3 innings pitched in three starts. Howard ranks in just the 23rd percentile of strikeout rate and 31st in exit velocity allowed, though he does get a reasonable amount of swing-and-miss, particularly on his slider. This is suggestive of a developing pitcher who needs to figure out how to put hitters away. He’s not likely to do that before the game starts tomorrow, however, so we can throw some Nats stacks at him.

The Nationals are putting up big marks in my home run model, first and foremost of which is coming for lefty dynamo Juan Soto. The 21-year-old is at .382/.475/.779 on the year, with a 13.8% walk rate and just a 12.5% strikeout rate and 7 home runs in his 80 plate appearances since rejoining the roster at the beginning of August. Soto’s ISO is a bananas .397, while his WRC+ is over the top at 125% better than league average. At $4,500 he’s the most expensive player on the FanDuel MLB DFS slate, while his $5,900 on DraftKings still somehow seems like not enough for this kid in this spot.

The Nationals other star is shortstop Trea Turner, who has hit 19 home runs each of the last two seasons and has stolen an average of 39.25 bases over the past four. This is a superstar player for MLB DFS and in real life. At $3,900 on FanDuel he’s well under value, while his $5,200 on DraftKings at least creates a decision point in some cases, which is the crux of the entire game we’re playing here. At .291/.328/.382 with a WRC+ 20% below average, Howie Kendrick has been just a mediocre option in the middle of this order, but there’s upside in the bat. If we need the position or if he’s not getting enough ownership, I have no problem swapping Kendrick in for any of the hitters in the suggested stack.

Asdrubal Cabrera is off to a good start in what is looking like another quality year in an underrated career. Cabrera was at .267/.326/.523 coming into action on Wednesday, with five home runs, a .256 ISO and a WRC+ 22% above average. The third baseman has hit 14 or more home runs in each of the past nine seasons, he carries first base eligibility on DraftKings and costs just $4,200, while he is very cheap at just $3,000 on DraftKings.

Kurt Suzuki is dramatically underpriced at the bare minimum $2,000 on FanDuel. Even for the blue site that’s egregious. The past three seasons, Suzuki has hit 19, 12 and 17 home runs despite never seeing 400 plate appearances. The catcher had 309 opportunities in 2019 and posted a .264/.324/.486 slash with 17 home runs, a .221 ISO and a WRC+ 5% above average. This is a solid offensive option of a catcher even on a site where we aren’t required to roster one. On DraftKings his price of just $3,600 puts him firmly in play.

Luis Garcia has done a good job of “announcing his presence with authority” (back to you, EMac) since reaching the Show 29 plate appearances ago, with a .357/.379/.500 slash and one home run in that span coming into action on Wednesday. The 20-year-old second baseman is not a go-to option by any means, but if you’re building a large volume of Nationals stacks, you can mix him in.

Better options on the back end are Eric Thames and Victor Robles. Robles has been one of our favorite wraparound options so far this season given his natural speed and hit tool, while Thames is someone whose quality contact numbers we covered just the other day, mere hours before he mashed a home run. The slugger is undeniably struggling at just .224/.297/.310 with that one home run so far this year, but the power is there when he makes contact. We just need him to get the right part of the bat on the right part of the ball more reliably.

HR Call: Pete Alonso (Mets)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.