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For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel MLB
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings MLB
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo MLB
[table id=1201 /]
Ryan Yarbrough
On a day with a glut of upper mid-tier pitching, Yarbrough is standing out to me as a priority. To be more specific, he’s an incredible value on FanDuel, a solid value on DraftKings and a tough sell on Yahoo. Yarbrough isn’t the biggest strikeout guy on the planet, unless you bat lefty. The Orioles, on the other hand, haven’t been all that great against lefties. They have the sixth highest strikeout rate which goes along with a below average wRC+. Since 2018, Yarbrough has a xwOBA allowed under .290 against both sides of the plate. He might not rack up a ton of strikeouts, but he should cut through this lineup like a hot knife through butter.
Adam Wainwright
Like I said, today’s kind of a weird one. Wainwright has the benefit of a solid matchup. The Giants have a top-10 strikeout rate against righties with a bottom-5 offense by wRC+. On some days, you simply make the best of a bad situation. Today is one of those days. On a different day, I wouldn’t be too enamored with Wainwright, but his salary across the industry is at a low enough point that he’ll be one of my more owned SP2s.
Other Options
On DraftKings and Yahoo, Drew Smyly is a fantastic, albeit terrifying, SP2 option. It’s obviously not a comfortable spot, what with the Reds having a 5.5 run implied total and all, but Smyly is essentially the bare minimum. I can’t avoid that kind of value, regardless of the spot. If you need someone else at the higher end, Mike Soroka is next in line for me. I think Soroka is set up well to handle the Blue Jays. They’re a bit scary with their power, but Soroka rarely gets touched up. I could see him working through Toronto’s lineup in a highly efficient manner.
