MLB DFS Picks: Sonny Gray & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, August 26 (FREE)

MLB DFS Picks: Monday, August 26th is a day of rest for most MLB teams, though we still have plenty of action on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB DFS baseball picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.

For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here


I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

[table id=1177 /]

DraftKings MLB

[table id=1178 /]

Yahoo MLB

[table id=1201 /]

Sonny Gray

As if this could have been someone else…

The clear best pitcher on the slate heads to Miami to face the clear worst team. I should probably just stop right there. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate (by a mile), but that changes nothing for me. I want to pay up for Gray as much as possible. As of right now, he’s the only pitcher I have projected for more than 5.1 strikeouts. His projection is actually 7.3, if you wanted to get some context as to how much better he is than anyone else. His ceiling is higher and he hits it more frequently than anyone else in the pitcher pool. Give me all of the Gray.

Dustin May

Gingergaard is in the house. Poor performance and a monstrous strikeout rate paint the Padres as a fantastic matchup for May. San Diego currently sports the highest strikeout rate in the league against righties. While May isn’t a big time strikeout pitcher, he does have some excellent command. I expect that to translate today. On FanDuel, it doesn’t really matter. May is priced at $6200. Even in a bad matchup, he would be viable. At that price, he’s the best pitcher on the slate. He’s more reasonably priced on DraftKings and Yahoo, which means he’s the perfect mid tier option. He can either be an extreme pay down SP1 or a high-end SP2. Regardless of where you use him, the frequency should be high.

Joe Musgrove

Surprise, surprise. Musgrove is on a slate and looks like a viable SP2 play. The park is a little scary, but surprisingly, the lineup isn’t. The Phillies have a 93 wRC+ against right handed pitching this season. On the surface, you would be worried about the lefties for Philly. Musgrove has allowed a .198 ISO to left handed hitters over the past two season. That stat is a bit deceptive, though. His xISO is just .138. That makes me feel a bit more comfortable with paying down. He’s actually given up more expected power to righties, which I never would have thought. If you’re paying down on DraftKings, you have two options: Musgrove and Tyler Beede. I’ll have both, but Musgrove is the better arm.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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