MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, July 12 (FREE)

MLB DFS: Friday, July 12th returns us back to the MLB action with thirteen “main” slate games for Yahoo MLB, DraftKings MLB, FanDuel MLB and FantasyDraft with some phenomenal hitting environments on the docket. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.

For Friday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here 

For Friday’s free Yahoo Strategy article click here 


I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

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FanDuel

[table id=1177 /]

DraftKings

[table id=1178 /]

Yahoo

[table id=1201 /]

Baseball is back! After a few days away for the All-Star Break, we’re diving right back in with a 13-game slate and tons of quality pitching options. Enough wasting time. Let’s do it!

FanDuel MLB DFS Picks

Gerrit Cole is the only pitcher priced over $10000 on FanDuel, but he’s worth it. He sports my highest strikeout projection and the highest likelihood of reaching his target score. While the Rangers lean a bit heavier to the left, Cole has actually had more success against left handed hitters, with a 39% strikeout rate and a .147 xISO. The Rangers are an excellent strikeout matchup, so I think it’s worth paying up for Cole, even with multiple options below him. Speaking of those cheaper guys, Mike Clevinger is next in line. Clevinger was back to his old self in his last start before the break. He struck out nine Royals while walking none over six scoreless innings. Clevinger has had a little trouble with left handed power, but I think that’s more than offset by his price and the strikeout potential against the Twins.

Somehow, Caleb Smith is priced like he’s not Caleb Smith. For a pitcher with his stuff, Smith is just simply too cheap. He’s had problems with power all season, from both sides of the plate, but pitching in Miami should help to mitigate that risk. He also helps to get you any bats you want. I expect him to be popular, but if I’m wrong, it’s even better. I think it’s reasonable to take a shot at either Jon Gray or Sonny Gray, but I wouldn’t look to get a lot of volume. The total in this game is massive, and a July game in Coors is rarely the recipe for pitching success.

DraftKings MLB DFS Picks

DraftKings pricing is a bit different. Cole is still at the top, and I still see him as the best overall arm. Robbie Ray is the second most expensive pitcher on FD, but on DK, he’s 14th at just $7900. I expect him to be the most popular SP2 and that’s exactly what he should be. That price is just wrong. You can safely ignore both overpriced Gray’s.

Smith is there once again at a price that allows for a ton of upside. A pairing with Ray leaves you all kinds of money to spend on bats. You can even use Ray as an SP1 with guys like Dylan Bundy (gulp!) or Danny Duffy. Bundy’s stuff versus righties has been great against righties, but the lefty power will certainly give him some trouble. Buyer beware, but I’ll be using him more than I assumed when I first woke up. Duffy has less stuff, but a much better option, so you can weigh your risk level accordingly.

Yahoo MLB DFS Picks

Yahoo has Cole at $62, which is normally a tough number to get to, but you can pair him up with either $36 Ray or $30 Dinelson Lamet and still have enough left over for a quality stack. If you can’t get all the way up to Cole, Clevinger is the perfect consolation prize at $51. The upper mid-tier looks to be efficiently priced which makes it harder to pick out quality arms. Eduardo Rodriguez is a few dollars cheaper than he should be, but he’s not exactly in an exciting matchup. The same thing goes for Jon Gray. Sonny Gray, however, is worth the risk at $33. Sometimes, you just need to roster guys with massive strikeout upside. Gray has that here, regardless of the ballpark.


Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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