MLB DFS: Sunday, July 14th presents us with a nine game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, but of course Yahoo Fantasy has us covered with every game on their featured slate. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For Sunday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click hereÂ
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
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FanDuel
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo
[table id=1201 /]
FanDuel MLB DFS Picks
This should come as no surprise, but Jacob deGrom is facing the Marlins in Miami and he’s the best pitching option of the slate. His ownership is expected to be massive, but I’m not overly concerned. This is one of the best pitchers against the worst offense in an incredible pitcher’s park. It really doesn’t get much better than this. It’s not just that deGrom has all of those things going for him, though. Pricing plays a major role in my thoughts. Shane Bieber is only $200 cheaper than deGrom on FanDuel. Now, I like Bieber quite a bit. He’s my second favorite starter on FD, but Bieber faces a dangerous Twins team in a relatively neutral park. It’s just really difficult to prioritize Bieber over deGrom.
Contest selection is key for those decisions. If I do need to save some money, I’m looking at Masahiro Tanaka. While I am a little nervous about the raw power in Toronto’s lineup coupled with Yankee Stadium in July, his price is just too low to ignore for his upside. It wouldn’t shock me to see Tanaka have some struggles with the long ball, but if he keeps it in the park, I see massive strikeout potential.
DraftKings MLB DFS Picks
DraftKings is in a similar boat at the top. deGrom is the clear cut top arm based on matchup and relative price. Bieber can certainly put up a big number against the Twins. The bottoms of the Twins lineup projects to strikeout aggressively. The concern tonight is with the left handed power. Over the past two seasons, Bieber has a .208 xISO against lefties. Cleveland’s park plays up left handed power, so keep a close eye on the lineup when it is announced. I see this as a high risk/high reward spot, which is tough when deGrom is essentially priced the same.
I think it makes some sense to go to Zack Greinke in lieu of Bieber. Greinke’s power struggles are actually to the right side, which is mitigated by park factors. Last season, St. Louis had a 93 PF to RHH HR. That’s really all that I’m worried about. Greinke has struck out 25.5% of righties over the past two years.
I think this is a spot where the ball stays in the park. Jhoulys Chacin is looking like the most popular pay down option, but I’m not totally sure I agree. While the Giants offense isn’t very good, they don’t project to strikeout much. That’s tricky when Chacin has such massive struggles against lefties. He’s has strikeouts in just 14% of plate appearances over the past two years, which is well below average. The projected lineup of the Giants currently sports five lefties, which means I’m looking to pivot in a different direction than Chacin.
If Sandy Alcantara is going to have 1/3 of Chacin’s ownership, that makes for an easy decision. Alcantara has similar problems strikeout out lefties, but he doesn’t have the same power problems. Plus, he’s pitching in Miami instead of the left handed bandbox in Milwaukee. Easy decision.
Yahoo MLB DFS Picks
Yahoo is still deGrom at the top, but they’ve mixed up my other two starters. Greinke is $54, just four dollars cheaper than deGrom and five dollar more expensive than Bieber. Skip Greinke here. That price just doesn’t work. Tanaka at $40 makes for a nice pairing with Bieber, but he’s probably a bit too expensive to pair with deGrom, unless you’re playing cash. I really like the idea of paying down for Jose Quintana since he’s only $29 for some reason. Be aware, Quintana has some struggles against right handed power. The Pirates will likely have all eight position players batting from the right side, which isn’t the best scenario for Wrigley Field, a park that plays up right handed power. The price makes this worth it, though. He’s priced like he’s never been good.
Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
