MLB DFS: Thursday, July 18th has a solid eight game set for our main slate at 7:00pm ET on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For Thursday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click hereÂ
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
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FanDuel MLB
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings MLB
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo MLB
[table id=1201 /]
FanDuel MLB DFS Picks
This one seems easy. Trevor Bauer has the best combination of matchup and ceiling on the whole slate. While he is the most expensive pitcher, he deserves that distinction. I’m more than happy to pay up for a pitcher with his strikeout rate, particularly against a toothless Tigers team. Ownership will play a big role in whether or not I get to Stephen Strasburg. I like him, but he’s only $200 cheaper than Bauer in a much worse matchup. If his ownership stays low, I can see him as a pivot in some single entry contests, but I’ll have a hard time getting him with any sort of volume.
If I’m dropping down from Bauer, I’m going to Noah Syndergaard. While he doesn’t sport the massive strikeout rate like Bauer, he can make up for it with efficiency and a major ballpark boost. Syndergaard would be my cash game pitcher, unless I found myself with $1600 left over to get back up to Bauer. Madison Bumgarner is close to Syndergaard, but I’m a little worried about his struggles with right handed power. The park will help, without question, but it’s hard to take him over Syndergaard given their prices.
DraftKings MLB DFS Picks
DraftKings has a similar structure at the top, with Bauer as the most expensive pitcher. Strasburg isn’t far behind. I like Strasburg a bit more on DK due to the two pitcher structure. Syndergaard and Bumgarner are neck and neck, so my thoughts from above still hold. Much like Bauer/Strasburg, I’ll get to more of Bumgarner because of the roster construction. I see two other potential options in the mid-tier: Tanner Roark and Kyle Gibson. Roark has a date with the Cardinals, which used to be a bit more scary than it currently is. Roark’s biggest issue is with left handed power, something that the Cards don’t really have. The park is scary, but I think it’s worth having some shares.
Gibson doesn’t really have any issues with either hand. The park is fine for pitchers. Unfortunately, Gibson has a much tougher offense to deal with than Roark. I’ll be leaning a bit more towards Gibson because of the discount, but I’ll be looking closely at both guys. I would love to pay down, but I’m finding the options unappealing. Zach Davies grades out OK from a median projection standpoint, but he’s not exactly the most fun guy to roster. He looks to be the best of the bunch, though. I’ll be using him as a caddy to Bauer/Strasburg.
Yahoo MLB DFS Picks
Yahoo has Bauer as the second most expensive pitcher behind Charlie Morton, which makes it even easier to grab the best arm on the slate. He pairs perfectly with…Madison Bumgarner at $36?!? I have no idea why he is priced so low in San Francisco, but he’s the best combination of price and upside of every pitcher on Yahoo. His price makes it so any combination of pitchers is viable from a salary perspective. I see no reason to take a single pitcher below him.
Awesemo YouTube
Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
