MLB DFS: Sunday, July 21st is providing a ten game main slate with all of the action going off in the first two hours with both the Rangers and Rockies on the road, then we have a solid four game 4 o’clock game set on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For Saturday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
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FanDuel MLB
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings MLB
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo MLB
[table id=1201 /]
FanDuel MLB DFS Picks
Well, I’m excited. Blake Snell has a date with the White Sox. Even though he’s the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, he’s pretty clearly my top arm. Sometimes, it’s just this easy. The White Sox strike out at an above average rate, and we all know Snell has no problem mowing down anyone that steps to the dish. He’ll be my most exposed pitcher. After Snell, I’ve got my eye on James Paxton. Paxton has some slight struggles with right handed power, but he’s still striking out 30%+ against both hands.
The power potential for Colorado is real, but in a GPP, I’ll be going to Paxton with regularity. If Paxton makes you nervous, Kyle Hendricks could be interesting. We’ll need to see where the line comes in, but current weather reports are showing some strong wind blowing in from center. If that’s the case, Hendricks is in play. Now, if you want to get really crazy, you can drop all the way down to $6400 German Marquez. Over the past two years, Marquez has a 32% strikeout rate against righties, while limiting them to a .127 xISO. He’s set up perfectly to deal with the Yankees power. This would be a risky spot if he was priced according to his talent, but at that price, there’s essentially no risk compared to his ceiling.
DraftKings MLB DFS Picks
Snell is still at the top of my player pool on DraftKings, with Paxton coming in a bit closer since he’s $1500 cheaper. Either way, I’m happy with either guy. Hendricks is a bit overpriced, but he has a high floor. Marquez doesn’t have the same discount, but he’s still cheap enough that I’ll have 15%+. The true struggle is at the bottom. Let me be clear: Drew Smyly stinks. At $4500, I’m willing to use him. This ballpark is death to right handed power, which could help Smyly stop the bleeding. The hope is that he can make it through four innings without dying. I’ll be nervous the entire time, but I can’t avoid him today at that price. I’ll be using Tyler Alexander in the same way, but I’m a bit less confident that he keeps the ball in the yard. Don’t forget, there’s a reason these guys are less than $5000. They’re awful. They will fail more often than not. You shouldn’t be using either guy in cash games.
Yahoo MLB DFS Picks
Yahoo went crazy and priced Snell at just $41. I shouldn’t have to tell you what to do there, but in case it’s not clear, you should use him heavily. It’s tough to pay up for Walker Buehler when everyone else is at least ten dollars cheaper. That doesn’t mean Buehler is a bad play. He’s just not as cost effective. I didn’t know it was possible to go below $25, but Smyly came in a a dollar less. I don’t think Smyly and Alexander are that interesting on Yahoo because the SP1s are too cheap. There’s no need to save that money today.
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Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
Paxson eh?
Thanks for that one……