MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, July 7 (FREE)

MLB DFS: Sunday, July 7th has us on the cusp of the All-Star Break and there is no ESPN Sunday Night Baseball so we have our final DFS baseball fix in the 4 o’clock hour along with a healthy eleven game set for the main slates on DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft with Yahoo of course running all fifteen games for their featured contests. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.

For Sunday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here 


I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight DFS Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel

[table id=1177 /]

DraftKings

[table id=1178 /]

Yahoo

[table id=1201 /]

The final slate before the All Star Break is poised to be tricky. As of 9AM EST, I have 10 pitchers within 6.5 FD points of each other. That a tough thing to parse through, but that’s what I’m here for.

FanDuel MLB DFS Picks

With all of the concentration in talent, the guy that stands out most is Zack Wheeler. His $9300 price is right in the middle of my group of starters. It’s certainly a tough spot against the Phillies. If this game were in Philadelphia, I might be singing a different tune, but for now, Wheeler is the starter I expect to use the most. After Wheeler, I’m all about playing the salary game. We talk a lot about value in the form of a points per dollar number. This helps to put each pitcher on a level playing field. I do it in a slightly different way by looking at my target percentages per $2000. Wheeler is at the top of the list. After Wheeler, there are five starters separated by 0.2%, which is essentially nothing. Depending on which stack you want to use, you can slot in any of Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin, Aaron Nola, David Price or Kyle Hendricks and I would have the same sort of opinion. This will surely separate a bit as the day moves on, from line changes and updated lineups. Be sure to tune into our Live Before Lock stream at noon EST for those updates.

DraftKings MLB DFS Picks

DraftKings is similar, but their pricing has made some decisions a bit easier. Charlie Morton is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, and I have no interest in him. Once again, Wheeler is my favorite arm, but it’s closer here than on FanDuel. Bauer being $300 cheaper makes for a difficult decision. For now, I prefer Wheeler, but that could change once lineups are announced. The more important decision is whether or not you pay all the way down at SP2. Trent Thorton is $5000 and has a date with the Orioles. I fully expect him to be one of my most owned pitchers. While he doesn’t go deep into games, he has excellent strikeout potential in this one. This will likely be the best spot for Thorton all season. I’m hoping that his ownership is takes a hit since he’s coming off of his worst start of the season.

Yahoo MLB DFS Picks

Yahoo went ahead and priced my favorite pitcher at just $40, so it’s Wheeler time across all three sites. He’s either a crazy cheap SP1 or the best SP2 on the slate. Either way, he’s the best of the bunch because of his price. If I’m paying up, I think Corbin would be my first choice at $47. While the Royals aren’t the best strikeout matchup, they’re still a relatively weak offense. Kansas City has the lowest implied total on the slate, so I think Corbin feels relatively safe. While he’s not the same sort of pay down option, going to Thorton at $32 is still viable. Pairing him with Wheeler gives you a high upside duo at a cheap price point, which should allow you to pay up for high-end stacks. That’s my goal each day and this pricing makes it easy. Ultimately, my day will come down to Wheeler having a big day. I’m not mad about that at all.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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