MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, July 29 (FREE)

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I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

[table id=1177 /]

DraftKings MLB

[table id=1178 /]

Yahoo MLB

[table id=1201 /]

Chris Paddack

This is what happens when you face the Orioles in Petco. In his career, Paddack has been death to righties. Against righties this season, he has a 31% strikeout rate and .126 xISO. Meanwhile, the Orioles active roster has an 87 wRC+. Now, Paddack has struggled a bit against lefties. His strikeout rate plummets to 21.5%. He’s given up some power to the tune of a .192 xISO. Luckily, Petco helps to limit left handed power, and the Orioles lefties haven’t shown much ability to hit righties anyway. Baltimore lefties are below average in ISO and wRC+ against RHP over 1140 plate appearances. If this game were in Baltimore, I would be a little nervous. Lucky for me, it’s in San Diego. Paddack is my favorite dollar for dollar arm on the slate.

Patrick Corbin

Corbin projects as my highest upside arm across all three sites, but he’s expensive and in a tough spot. The Braves offense is legit. They have the 9th highest wRC+ against lefties couples with the 5th highest ISO. The saving grace for Corbin is the Braves strikeout rate. Atlanta has struck out in 25% of their plate appearances against LHP which is the 6th highest rate in the league. Corbin looks like a perfect GPP play. His ownership should be a bit depressed due to the matchup and the price, but I see it as an opportunity to pay up to be contrarian. When it’s good, Corbin leads the slate in fantasy points on the back of a big strikeout performance. When it’s bad, he struggles with the power of Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, and the rest of the righties. I’ll be using Corbin, but I’ll be sure to have some Braves stacks in case it gets a little squirrely.

Merrill Kelly

​This is more of a DraftKings/Yahoo play than a FanDuel one, but I have to mention someone when they face the Marlins. Kelly has been underwhelming. His xISO against both hands is north of .200. That’s…rough. However, he’s pitching in Miami against the worst offense in the league. Right now, the projected lineup for the Marlins only has one lefty. If that holds up when the actual lineup is announced, I’ll be using Kelly as my most frequent SP2. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll still have some shares of the Coors arms, but the risk there is significant. Kelly appears to be the next best thing thanks to his matchup.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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