MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel

I had a feeling today’s Main Slate was going to get interesting and looking through the MLB DFS top stacks tool it certainly came up that way. With no team at higher than a 7.5% probability of being the top stack, we’ve got an extremely level playing field and any number of different directions to target. Looking through pitching can be helpful in this case of course, I like to look for the lowest projected highest-owned pitcher that I feel comfortable targeting with bats, as just one approach to things. I also lean a bit into my home run model looking for an overall team power spot, which we definitely have on the board today as well.

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MLB DFS Stack Slants

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1-2-3-4-6 – Kole Calhoun – Ketel Marte – Starling Marte – David Peralta – Eduardo Escobar

The Diamondbacks are in San Francisco to take on the Giants and starter Logan Webb tonight. Webb has been mostly effective on the surface so far in his time with the Giants, the 4.28 career xFIP over his 60 innings is encouraging for the pitcher’s prospects. The hurler relies primarily on an arsenal that includes a 93-mph fastball, an 85-mph changeup and an 81-mph slider. He’s using the changeup a bit more often so far in 2020, it’s a good pitch for him and it generates a fair amount of swing and miss. The quality of contact and Statcast numbers so far in 2020 are not very encouraging, however. Webb currently sits in the bottom 29th percentile of hard hit rate allowed, 43rd in exit velocity allowed, 21st in xWOBA and just 29th in strikeout rate. Ultimately this is a vulnerable pitcher against a quality lineup.

The Diamondbacks have the second-lowest team strikeout rate in the league at just 20.2% so far in 2020. The team does a good job working pitchers and getting quality selections to drive. They would be massively improved if they could bump their 22nd ranked walk rate somewhat but the team is great at putting the ball in play and moving baserunners, although they haven’t shown a tremendous amount of power so far. That could change with the first hitter, Kole Calhoun tonight. Calhoun has a career 188 ISO and a WRC+ 10% above league average and 112 of his 147 career home runs in the split.

Ketel Marte and Starling Marte should be following Calhoun in the order here. The pair makes a dynamic duo (copyright DC Comics) at the top of the lineup and does a great job both producing points on their own and setting the table for the sluggers behind them. Starling is out to the better start in 2020 but both Martes are playing well. Starling is a .337/.423/.472 with a WRC+ 45% above average, while Ketel is at .343/.361/.441 and 16% above average. They’re a great pair to include in any Diamondbacks stack, despite being the team’s two most popular players they’re still both at under 12% across both sites.

Outfielder David Peralta is a high-end left-handed bat cleaning up for this team and he should be in an amazing spot at just $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings. For his career, Peralta has a .206 ISO and 73 of his 87 home runs against right handed pitchers. Christian Walker and Eduardo Escobar occupy the corner infield spots for this team and either or both can be included in this stack at under one percent ownership on both sites. The sluggers haven’t gotten out of the gate well, but there is power here and they should be able to take advantage of the matchup. In 2019 the pair combined for 64 home runs, a .230 average ISO and a WRC+ 11% above average. This is more in-line with expectations, Escobar has shown an increasing ISO over each of the last three seasons while taking his home run total from 21 to 35 last year. Walker had over a .200 ISO through most stops in the minors as well as his full season with the Diamondbacks last year. The right-handed first baseman strikes out too much and doesn’t get the bat on the ball as much as we’d like, but it travels when he does and he’s perfectly in play here.

At the bottom of the lineup we can get to lefty catcher Stephen Vogt on the much better side of his splits. This should be a low-owned catcher option at just $3,800 on DraftKings. Kevin Cron at just $2,500 has been pulling decent power marks in my home run model lately and makes a reasonable late lineup mix and match option here.

Baltimore Orioles – 2-3-4-6-8 – Anthony Santander – Renato Nunez – Rio Ruiz – Dwight Smith Jr. – Cedric Mullins

The upstart Orioles just won’t wake up to the reality of the team that they are. Despite a 4-6 record over their last 10 games, the team remains frisky for MLB DFS purposes, providing unexpected bonanzas of fantasy points. Taking on the Red Sox in Camden Yards tonight they should be seeing a combination of opener Colton Brewer and, as near as I can tell, Darwinzon Hernandez. Neither is a fearsome opponent and the Orioles are currently ranked in the top third of stack options tonight, while drawing only around a third of what they should be in popularity.

The highest owned Orioles player on both sites in current projections is catcher Chance Cisco. The catcher is in the leadoff spot in projected lineups and is putting up a solid slash to start 2020 with a .270/.438/.568, three home runs, a .297 ISO and a WRC+ 74% above league average over his limited 48 plate appearance sample. In 452 plate appearances for his career, however,Cisco is at .209/.332/.377 with 15 home runs, 13 of which have come against right-handed pitching. I might get different just by avoiding the option if he’s going to be as popular as we’re currently projecting, but Cisco is still a reasonable option here if he’s hitting up top. The appeal is significantly lessened if he’s hitting late in the lineup, I mostly want to buy the on-base skills in front of the better hitters in the heart of this lineup.

Anthony Santander is among MLB home run leaders so far in 2020, which I think we were all definitely expecting, right? The surprise outfielder has won a few GPPs for people with his big blasts already this season and he’s in a great spot again. In his 652 major league plate appearances, the switch-hitter has 30 home runs and a WRC+ almost exactly at league average. Slugging first baseman Renato Nunez has been chasing his teammate Santander in quality so far this season and is off to a great start of his own. At .283/.350/.511 with five home runs, 15 RBIs, 17 runs scored and a WRC+ 31% above league average. At just $3,100 on FanDuel and $4,400 on DraftKings he makes a great first base option at under seven percent ownership across both sites.

The Orioles offer a mixed bag through the rest of this lineup. The top projections for both points and power for me from here are Rio Ruiz, Dwight Smith Jr. and Cedric Mullins. The trio is not great, but any of them could pop as part of a stack and they should be deployed according to the best options within the batting order and with ownership. Basically no one will be on any of these hitters, they all project for under one percent ownership on both sites. Ruiz has six home runs over his first 83 plate appearances in 2020 but is carrying just a .208 average and a .293 on-base percentage, at just $3,300 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings we’re basically paying for the .278 ISO he’s shown this season, although his career mark is just .151, so let’s not get carried away. Dwight Smith Jr. has hit 17 home runs in his first 568 plate appearances though he has just a .248/.310/.416 slash and a WRC+ nine percent below average for his career so far. Keep an eye on the lineup and work-in back end options accordingly, most of the quality here is in the one through five spots.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.