Friday, June 17, has four early games and then a robust 12-game featured slate with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/17)
Top Stack: Phillies at Nationals Bullpen — 5.7 implied runs
For the second consecutive day, the Phillies are highlighted by the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool for their matchup against either the Washington bullpen or a nondescript starter called up from the minors with this being the second game of Friday’s doubleheader. Last night, Philadelphia hung nine runs on Patrick Corbin in just 3.1 innings. That left 5.2 innings to be absorbed by the relief corps, which was also heavily used in the previous series against Atlanta.
The key Philadelphia bats all saw action in Game 1, though with this being a day-night doubleheader, most of the regulars should be in the lineup once again. Kyle Schwarber had two round-trippers last night in his lefty/lefty matchup against Corbin, and the former Nationals and Cubs outfielder tends to hit them in bunches when he is in the zone. Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and Nick Castellanos are all above-average options in this game being played in warm and humid weather.
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Late Slate: Diamondbacks vs. LHP Devin Smeltzer — 4.4 implied runs
On the whole Arizona is a middling offense, though the Stokastic Top Batters Tool does like a few unexpected options with a southpaw on the mound tonight for Minnesota. Devin Smeltzer is essentially a batting-practice pitcher when facing hitters swinging the stick from the right side of the plate. The 27-year-old has struggled with strikeouts throughout his career, though the 4.2 per nine innings this season are a new low, even for him. Over his last 145 batters faced, he has a paltry 13.1% strikeout rate while allowing a robust .183 ISO in 116 matchups against opposite-handed hitters.
Tonight the focus should be on Jordan Luplow (.271 ISO), switch-hitter Ketel Marte (.286 ISO) and catcher Carson Kelly (.227 ISO), who all have a long history of success in righty/lefty matchups. On the main slate this trio makes for solid one-offs, and on the late slate they can be the basis of a Diamondbacks stack. The Chase Field roof is slated to be closed for this entire homestand, though sometimes they do open it for the later innings on Fridays, depending on the temperature.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: LHP Carlos Rodon at Pirates — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $10,700
Pittsburgh has been just below average this season against southpaws, but Carlos Rodon is no ordinary lefty. Rodon’s specialty is strikeouts, which, of course, are the currency of the DFS realm. This year, he ranks third among qualified starters with 11.5 per nine innings. Over his last 793 batters faced, the 29-year-old has an eye-popping 33.2% strikeout rate while limiting power. While this is one of the most popular pitchers on the slate, there are two dozen teams in the player pool, which will provide plenty of paths to unique lineups.
Secondary Target: RHP Jon Gray at Tigers — 4.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,900 | FanDuel $8,600
This is just a silly salary for Jon Gray on DraftKings, and he is definitely on the short list for FanDuel. He has logged double-digit strikeouts in two of his last three outings, and Detroit is nearly one entire standard deviation below the second-worst offense in the land. So far this season, the Tigers have a 68 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers, which means they are scoring 32% less efficiently than league average. Their .095 ISO is like having a team filled with nine-hole hitters, and they also have a 24.1% strikeout rate, which is the sixth highest in the league.
Wild Card Target: LHP Framber Valdez vs. White Sox — 4.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $10,100
Chicago is in the bottom quarter of the league against southpaws, and while the White Sox limit strikeouts, that is not really part of Framber Valdez‘s repertoire. Across his last 816 batters faced, Valdez has a 69.5% ground ball rate with an absurd negative 5.1 launch angle. This should help him mitigate the power at the top of the Chicago order, and his salary combined with the perceived difficult matchup is likely to keep him underrepresented in tournaments.
Additional Opportunities
Clayton Kershaw logged 71 pitches in his return from a five-week layoff due to a sore lower back. Though he is likely to top out around 80 pitches tonight, the MLB player props market has adjusted accordingly. Currently, he has a 4.5 over/under on his strikeout prop and the Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 5.9, giving him a 72% probability of staying under that benchmark. He had four strikeouts in his last start, and the projected Cleveland lineup has a 25.7% strikeout rate against lefties since the beginning of last year. In four healthy April starts, the three-time Cy Young Award winner averaged 81.8 pitches with 7.5 strikeouts. Tonight we just need five, and this matchup keeps him live for the over.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Hunter Greene vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Early)
- LHP Tarik Skubal vs. Texas Rangers (Main)
- RHP Frankie Montas vs. Kansas City Royals (Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Ji-Man Choi at RHP Dean Kremer (Early)
- Matt Carpenter at RHP Ross Stripling (Main)
- Jesus Sanchez at RHP Carlos Carrasco (Main)
- Byron Buxton at LHP Madison Bumgarner (Main, Late)
- Freddie Freeman vs. Zach Plesac (Main, Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Warm, humid and winds blowing out are the order of the day. Several venues will have two or even all three of these favorable hitting conditions in the Friday forecast.
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