Monday, June 27, kicks off the work week with a nine-game featured slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/27)
Main Slate: Blue Jays vs. RHP Connor Seabold — 5.6 implied runs
Sunday saw a disappointing result from Toronto as they failed to capitalize on their matchup with Chi Chi Gonzalez. Today, they have an opportunity for redemption against 26-year-old rookie Connor Seabold. This will be his second appearance in The Show, and even though he is just inside the top 10 of most Boston prospect lists, the projection systems are considering him a replacement-level talent at best.
The DraftKings salary algorithm is granting a 10% discount for most of the primary Toronto bats, as compared to Sunday’s lofty listings. Continue targeting the usual suspects, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez and catcher Alejandro Kirk being the primary options. The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has Toronto as a team to target given its 7% chance of being the top scoring stack, and it is a solid pivot away from the Dodgers, who are facing Chad Kuhl in Coors Field.
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Double-Dip with SP1 Tyler Glasnow + Dodger Bats (April 15)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 15)
- MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Stack Braves Against Astros Rooki (April 15)
- Today’s Top MLB DFS Pitcher Pivots: Merrill Kelly and More (April 15)
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Nolan Arenado (April 15 Main Slate)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Late Slate: Angels vs. RHP Lucas Giolito — 4.7 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool is giving high marks to Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh. While these names are not surprising, they are facing Lucas Giolito, who up until five starts ago was an ace-caliber hurler. Though his velocity and pitch mix have not changed, Giolito has been hammered in each of his last five appearances. In this stretch he has 25.2 innings with 25 strikeouts, but he has ceded nine home runs and posted a 9.47 ERA, and this even excludes three unearned runs. This could just be bad luck, or it could be pitch tipping or even an undisclosed injury. Regardless, it makes sense to target the top trio from the Halos in this matchup on all slates.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. Athletics — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $8,200
Keep an eye on the weather forecast, as there is rain throughout the day in the New York area. If it stays away from the stadium, all will be good for Jordan Montgomery. While the 29-year-old southpaw is not the most dominating ace on the mound tonight, he does have the best matchup. The anemic Athletics are better against lefties than righties, but they are still a bottom-five team by most traditional and advanced metrics, with their 88 wRC+ being the most telling statistic.
Montgomery is below league average with his 22.6% strikeout rate over his last 930 batters faced, but he also limits power and walks. Additionally, his 46% ground ball rate helps keep him out of big innings more often than not. The projected lineup for Oakland is loaded with strikeouts, giving a boost to the fantasy prospects of Montgomery.
Secondary Target: RHP George Kirby vs. Orioles — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,100 | FanDuel $9,000
Rookie George Kirby has been a pleasant surprise for Seattle, though he is due for some negative regression back to the mean. In his four June starts, the 24-year-old has authored a pristine 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he has allowed five home runs, and two unearned runs also help. The three walks in these 23 innings are impressive, though at some point the other shoe is likely to drop. The salary on DraftKings makes him an excellent SP2, but the lack of upside relegates him to late-slate status on FanDuel. The Orioles lineup does have power at the top half; that being said, they still strike out at an above-average rate and create runs about 10% below the league baseline.
Wild Card Target: LHP Martin Perez at Royals — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $9,700
Somehow in his 11th season, Martin Perez is putting together the best collection of starts in his entire career. This is not going to last forever, but so far his ERA is 2.55 runs lower than his career average, with a 0.32 reduction in his WHIP. His pitch mix has been proportionally the same over the last four seasons; however, his ground ball rate is up to 52.8% and he has allowed only two home runs. The music will stop soon and he will be left without a chair, though making it one more start against the fourth-worst offense in the league should keep this day of reckoning deferred until July.
Additional Opportunities
Adam Wainwright pitches to contact, but if his amazing curveball is working its magic, he does pick up strikeouts. Today, he is someone to target in the MLB player props market with his 5.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. Currently, the Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 4.7 strikeouts, giving him a 67% probability of falling short of his milestone. Over his last 1,145 batters faced, he has only a 20.1% strikeout rate, and the projected Miami lineup is a 21.6% against righties in that same timeframe. Furthermore, Waino has half a dozen or more strikeouts in just six of his 14 starts this season.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Kevin Gausman vs. Boston Red Sox (Main)
- RHP Pablo Lopez at St. Louis Cardinals (Main)
- RHP Adam Wainwright vs. Miami Marlins (Main)
- RHP Tyler Wells at Seattle Mariners (Late)
- RHP Lucas Giolito at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Dan Vogelbach at RHP Erick Fedde (Main)
- Anthony Rizzo vs. RHP Paul Blackburn (Main)
- Alex Kirilloff at RHP Triston McKenzie (Main)
- Cedric Mullins at RHP George Kirby (Late)
- Jesse Winker vs. RHP Tyler Wells (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
New York is the only venue that could end up with some precipitation issues, but it looks like things should subside around first pitch. Be sure to keep tabs on this forecast as lock time approaches.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[MLBPAGE]
