Thursday, June 16, brings a second day of split-slate action with a five-game featured slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/16)
Top Stack: Philadelphia Phillies at LHP Patrick Corbin — 5.7 implied runs
It is going to be warm and humid tonight in the DC Metro Area with game-time temperatures in the mid-80s, along with 75% humidity and a 6 to 9 mph breeze out to center field. There is a slight chance of scattered showers due to the humidity, but this should not impact the game … unless, of course, the Nationals lean upon weather shenanigans to avoid another embarrassing start by Patrick Corbin. Last year, the 32-year-old southpaw allowed 37 home runs, which was the second most behind only perpetual piñata Jordan Lyles, who ceded 38 long balls. This year, Corbin has suffered only nine round-trippers, but he has still posted career lows with his 6.65 ERA and 1.73 WHIP, and his strikeouts are below league average for a starter at just 7.5 per nine innings.
Philadelphia is highlighted by the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool for its tasty matchup tonight in Washington. They have the highest implied run total for the five-game featured slate, and by no means will they be overlooked by the field. Reigning National League MVP Bryce Harper will be back in his old stomping grounds where he also claimed his first MVP. Though this is a lefty/lefty matchup, Harper excels against fellow southpaws and should get a couple cracks at the Nationals beleaguered bullpen. Rhys Hoskins and Nick Castellanos are both ridiculous against opposite-handed pitching, and there are some interesting odds on one of them crushing a ball out of the park.
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Early Slate: Boston Red Sox vs. RHP Paul Blackburn — 5.5 implied runs
Both Wrigley Field and Coors Field are once again looking like prime spots to target, with double-digit run totals in each game and both hometown teams running out substandard pitchers. Toronto is also in a solid situation with a 5.4 implied run total for their matchup against Tyler Wells. Though Wells is not a bad real-life pitcher, he is due for some negative regression when comparing his 3.86 ERA to his 5.56 xFIP.
Somehow it seems that Boston may be a differentiation play when it comes to full stacks, though the Stokastic Top Batters Tool is handing out high marks to Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez at their respective positions.
Paul Blackburn has been pitching with a lucky horseshoe in his back pocket, and he is going to run out of positive mojo at some point. Though he has appeared in six different seasons for Oakland, injuries and ineffectiveness have limited him to 42 appearances, including 39 starts, for 204.1 innings in The Show. This year, he has a paltry 6.38 strikeouts per nine innings, while his 0.42 home runs per nine innings are less than half of his career average and well below the 1.88 of last season (38.1 innings) and 2.45 in 2019 (11.0 innings). He may survive one time through the order, but it is hard to see him escaping the Sox gauntlet a second time.
Enrique “Kike” Hernandez is on the injured list, which opens the door for Boston’s top outfield prospect Jarren Duran to lead off in this day game after a night game to get his left-handed bat at the top of the order. Alex Verdugo and Francisco Cordero both have the platoon advantage and, of course, Trever Story is in play anytime he takes the field.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: LHP Martin Perez at Detroit Tigers — 4.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $10,500
Luis Severino, Shohei Ohtani and Zack Wheeler all stand out as the clear top-three options; mix and match to your heart’s content. Youngsters Aaron Ashby and George Kirby have tough matchups, but they also carry more strikeout upside than Martin Perez.
So, why does Perez get the detailed breakdown? Well, because his lofty salary and the other options on the slate have suddenly made him a contrarian option. While he just allowed seven runs, six earned, against the White Sox, Perez is having his best year in his age-31 season. Currently, Perez is eighth with his 2.18 ERA and in the top 30 with his 1.10 WHIP, both of which are career highs. In nine of his 12 starts, the ground-ball-inducing lefty has allowed two or fewer runs. The Tigers have an 84 wRC+ against southpaws, which is the second worst in the league and indicates they are creating runs 16% less efficiently than the average baseline. They also have a league-worst 0.80 ISO, which is nearly 20% lower than the .098 of the Marlins.
Early Target: RHP Kevin Gausman vs. Baltimore Orioles — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $10,700
Today, Kevin Gausman will be wildly popular on the early slate going against the team that drafted him. This season has been an exceptional one for the veteran of 10 MLB campaigns. In his dozen starts, he has allowed three or fewer earned runs and only two home runs. Though his 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings are down when compared to the last three seasons, he is still among the top 15 qualified starters in the league. Implosions can happen at any time to any pitcher, so looking to a few “hedge” stacks from the Orioles is also a savvy strategy if playing more than 10 lineups in the early slate.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Joe Musgrove at Chicago Cubs (Early)
- RHP Luis Severino vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Main)
- RHP Zack Wheeler at Washington Nationals (Main)
- RHP Shohei Ohtani at Seattle Mariners (Main)
One-Off Hitters
- Manny Machado at RHP Matt Swarmer (Early)
- Cedric Mullins at RHP Kevin Gausman (Early)
- Ji-Man Choi at RHP Luis Severino (Main)
- Pete Alonso vs. LHP Aaron Ashby (Main)
- Jared Walsh at RHP George Kirby (Main)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
We are at that time of the year where the Mid-Atlantic states see a lot of afternoon thunder showers resulting from the high heat and humidity. These usually play out in the late afternoon and have run their course by first pitch. Most of the stadiums have top-notch drainage systems that can handle this, and as long as the grounds crews get the tarp on the field in time, they should not have any issues. Today, there are two games in New York and one in our nation’s capital that warrant keeping an eye on the forecast leading up to first pitch.
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