On Thursday, June 23, the fun starts early, with 12:10 p.m. ET baseball wrapping up with a three-game featured slate at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/23)
Top Stack: Houston Astros at RHP Jameson Taillon — 4.1 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool is dubious about the breakthrough season that is underway for Jameson Taillon. Through 13 starts, Taillon has posted career bests with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, all while dramatically reducing his walks. This year, he has introduced a cutter as a new pitch that he is using 14.7% of the time. In turn, he has moved away from his main fastball — 44%, down from 55% last year and 57.3% for his career — and curveball — 13.5%, down from 19% last year and 21% on for his career. This has been accompanied by a slight uptick in his changeup to a career-high 9.1%.
Lefties tend to get the best of Taillon, which should be no surprise. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are elite options every day, but the enigmatic Michael Brantley appears to profile well against Taillon’s pitch repertoire. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, of course, round out the usual suspects for the Astros to create a full stack. There are only three games on the featured slate tonight, so some differentiation may be found by focusing on Alvarez, Tucker and a couple of the batters lower in the order.
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Late Slate: Chicago White Sox vs. RHP Dean Kremer — 5.1 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the ChiSox in their matchup against Dean Kremer. The field will clearly land here as well, with Jose Abreu and Company boasting the highest implied run total of the late action. Across his last 284 batters faced, Kremer has allowed a .240 ISO, along with a subpar 18.0% strikeout rate. Hitters can look for their pitch, as the 26-year-old pitches from behind in the count 51.9% of the time. The top six hitters are all in play, with Andrew Vaughn, who is in the midst of a breakout season, and Jake Burger looking like the two “least” popular hitters. Each will likely be on 15% to 20% of all rosters, though with a six-team player pool, that counts as “underrepresented” in tournaments.
The Batters of Birdland where cruising last night against the Nationals and Patrick Corbin, plating seven in a rain-shortened game that was called after six innings. Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Austin Hayes all hit homers, and Hayes also hit for the cycle. This trio, along with Ryan Mountcastle and top-tier prospect Adley Rutschman, are all in play against Johnny Cueto, who is going to come crashing back to reality any day now.
Ben Rasa also likes this Orioles vs. White Sox game from a betting perspective. See Ben’s best MLB bet today for the Orioles vs. White Sox.
Early Slate: Los Angeles Dodgers at RHP Hunter Greene — 5.6 implied runs
Hunter Greene certainly can rack up the strikeouts, with an impressive 11.8 per nine innings. However, this does come with a cost, and that is a whopping 17 home runs allowed — the second most in the league. While it is a small sample size, Greene has allowed 13 long balls to same-handed batsmen, while lefties have accounted for just four. That is likely to normalize, but it also indicates that anyone with power and even a slightly discerning eye is in play for the Dodgers this afternoon.
Will Smith was behind the plate last night, so it is unlikely we see him behind the dish in a day game, but he could land in the designated hitter slot. Justin Turner has been slumping for most of the season, but he has a long track record of strong results against same-handed pitchers. Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, Chris Taylor and Max Muncy round out the other key options.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: LHP Framber Valdez at New York Yankees — 4.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $10,200
There are only six starting pitchers to choose from tonight, so this is all about survival. Framber Valdez is the best ground ball pitcher in the league, inducing them at a 69.8% rate over his last 941 batters faced and allowing an absurd negative-5.3-degree launch angle. He has a strong chance of surviving relatively unscathed for five or six innings, which is all we are looking for on this slate. The other option to pair with him on the two-pitcher sites will be either Ranger Suarez against a depleted Padres lineup missing Manny Machado or Friars ace Joe Musgrove, who has cleared the health and safety protocol and will be available for the first time in a week.
Early Slate: RHP Kyle Wright vs. San Francisco Giants — 4.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $10,500
Kyle Wright is commanding a lofty salary for his fantastic results this season. Currently, the 26-year-old is inside the top 25 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP when ranked against all qualified starters. He also has recorded a career-best 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings this season while allowing only four home runs in 79.2 innings.
The best San Francisco batsmen are swinging the stick from the left side of the plate, in Brandon Belt, Joc Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski and Luis Gonzalez. Do not let that dissuade you from having a healthy share of Wright across your tournament lineups. In his last 188 opposite-handed matchups, Wright has allowed little power with a .123 ISO, and his 25.0% strikeout rate has generally kept him out of trouble.
On the two-pitcher sites, southpaws Kyle Freeland and Braxton Garrett are squaring off in Miami, and both hurlers are carrying appropriate salaries. Neither is a safe option, but the salary cap relief they provide can really bring a significant offensive upgrade to most DFS rosters.
Other Pitching Options
- LHP Clayton Kershaw at Cincinnati Reds (Early)
- LHP Alex Wood at Atlanta Braves (Early)
- LHP Robbie Ray at Oakland Athletics (Afternoon)
- RHP Joe Musgrove vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Late)
- LHP Ranger Suarez at San Diego Padres (Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Michael Chavis vs. LHP Justin Steele (Early)
- Yan Gomes at LHP Jose Quintana (Early)
- Rowdy Tellez vs. RHP Dakota Hudson (Afternoon)
- Giancarlo Stanton vs. LHP Framber Valdez (Late)
- Didi Gregorius at RHP Joe Musgrove (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Everything looks good on Thursday, with no precipitation risks for the wall-to-wall baseball.
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