Tuesday, June 28, maxes out the player pool with a 15-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/28)
Main Slate: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Michael Wacha — 5.1 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool considers Toronto a viable alternative to the Coors Field Extravaganza tonight. Michael Wacha is a middle-of-the-road starter who has been rather fortunate this season when compared to his last two campaigns where he tallied a 5.39 ERA and 32 home runs allowed in 158.2 combined innings with the Mets and Rays. The lack of strikeouts has always been the Achilles heel for Wacha, as it limits his ability to pitch out of jams.
Toronto flexed power upside last night, with three home runs and three doubles off of starter Connor Seabold. This season the Blue Jays are behind only the Yankees when it comes to home runs against righties, and their 185 extra-base hits are second to none.
While the focus should be on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez and George Springer, power is available up and down the lineup. Matt Chapman has been on a heater and he, along with Alejandro Kirk, Santiago Espinal and Raimel Tapia, can provide discounted differentiation depending on your DFS site of choice.
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Evening Slate: Texas Rangers at RHP Jonathan Heasley — 4.9 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool has flagged a couple Texas hitters as intriguing options and viable pivots from the Coors Field Extravaganza. Jonathan Heasley does have 30 strikeouts in his last 33 innings, but he has also allowed seven home runs and 15 walks, indicating that he is dancing on the edge of disaster. Tonight, it is going to be in the mid-80s with a 5 to 7 mph breeze out to left field in Kauffman Stadium. This is a nice ballpark upgrade for the Texas offense.
On DraftKings, Corey Seager ($5,600), Adolis Garcia ($5,400) and Marcus Semien ($5,000) have salaries similar to the top Dodger options in Coors Field. This makes them excellent counterplays, and with Josh Smith ($2,400) leading off and Kole Calhoun ($3,800) in the heart of the order, it is easy to lower the average hitter cost of this stack.
Late Slate: Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP Johnny Cueto — 4.7 implied runs
Once again, we should go back to the Angels, who have a favorable matchup against Johnny Cueto. Against all odds, the 36-year-old journeyman has put together his best stretch of starts since he joined the Giants in 2016. Cueto has dealt with a variety of injuries that have limited him to only 55 appearances over the last five seasons. Lady Luck and Cueto’s funky delivery are only going to carry him for so long; the wheels should come off the wagon any time now in spectacular fashion.
Mike Trout (.393 ISO), Shohei Ohtani (.289 ISO), Jared Walsh (.231 ISO) and Taylor Ward (.219 ISO) are quite a gauntlet at the top of the order, and each has shown elite power against right-handed hurlers over the last two seasons. The back half of the lineup is less daunting, so we will want to focus only on the boppers up top.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: LHP Carlos Rodon vs. Detroit Tigers — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $10,600
Carlos Rodon has been ridiculous across five June starts, allowing just four earned runs against 37 strikeouts in the span of 30 innings. Detroit is better against southpaws than right-handed hurlers, but that is far from a deterrent. The projected Tigers lineup has a 30.8% strikeout rate against southpaws since the beginning of last season, and in that same timeframe, Rodon has a combined 33.3% strikeout rate. This, combined with San Francisco being nearly a 2-to-1 favorite, makes Rodon a coveted selection.
Secondary Target: LHP Robbie Ray vs. Baltimore Orioles — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $10,200
Once again, the performance of Robbie Ray has been a rollercoaster ride with results all over the map. Everything broke his way last season when he secured the American League Cy Young Award, despite not earning All-Star honors. During his five May starts and the first two in June, he was dreadful, with a 5.58 ERA and 2.2 home runs per nine innings in 40.1 cumulative frames.
The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction over his last three outings, with only two earned runs allowed accompanied by 20 strikeouts in 20 innings. Of course, the truth is somewhere in the middle, but the home matchup against Baltimore lands several checkmarks in the positive column. The Orioles have been a league-average offense against southpaws, though their 24.5% strikeout rate is the fifth highest.
Wild Card Target: RHP Shane Baz vs. Milwaukee Brewers — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,600 | FanDuel $7,200
Tuesday’s slate is loaded with top-tier pitching options, so there is no need to be painted into a corner. However, there is, of course, a game in Coors Field boasting an 11 implied run total, so if savings are needed on the two-pitcher sites, look to youngster Shane Baz. Tampa Bay has somewhat of a soft pitch limit on Baz, who has made only three starts this season after having elbow surgery this spring. In his last two outings, he threw 78 and 76 pitches, so something in the 75 to 80 range is an appropriate expectation for tonight.
The 23-year-old has 15 strikeouts in 13 innings of work this season, and the projected Milwaukee lineup has a 23.8% strikeout rate over the last season and change against right-handed pitchers. Five innings, a handful of strikeouts and a couple of earned runs seems like a reasonable baseline expectation for Baz. If the pitch limit is a negative, Dean Kremer in Seattle tonight against the Mariners is an even cheaper alternative.
Additional Opportunities
Brandon Woodruff has been all over the place with his strikeouts, and he is someone to target in the MLB player props market today. Currently, he has a 6.5 over/under on his strikeout prop and the Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 5.3 strikeouts, giving him a 71% probability of falling short of his target. Over his last 999 batters faced, Woodruff does have a 29.7% strikeout rate, which is excellent. However, the better the opposition, the lower his strikeout total. Naturally this makes sense, but for perspective, he had four or fewer strikeouts in three of his nine starts this year and four starts with exactly six strikeouts. This makes his best two outings of 9 and 12 strikeouts against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati seem anomalous.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Zac Gallen vs. San Diego Padres (Main, Late)
- LHP Sean Manaea at Arizona Diamondbacks (Main, Late)
- LHP Framber Valdez at New York Yankees (Main SP2)
- RHP Jon Gray at Kansas City Royals (Main SP2, Evening)
- RHP Dean Kremer at Seattle Mariners (Main SP2, Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Sean Murphy at LHP JP Sears (Main)
- Nelson Cruz vs. LHP Jose Quintana (Main)
- Ian Happ vs. RHP Luis Castillo (Evening)
- Jesse Winker vs. RHP Dean Kremer (Late)
- Javier Baez at LHP Carlos Rodon (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Tuesday is a precipitation-free day across the MLB landscape, with warm to hot weather in several locations. Coors Field leads the way, with temperatures in the low-90s for the first half of the game. Chicago, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Washington also have positive weather influences worthy of a mention.
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