A massive 15-game Friday MLB DFS main slate brings everything to the table on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several highly capable aces, a few underperforming top-end starters, young up-and-coming strikeout artists in great matchups, and plenty of gas-can pitchers who can ignite an opposing offense, making for great targets for stacks. A few games in the Midwest lead the board in Vegas, with the Blue Jays vs Tigers, Rays vs Twins, and Rangers vs White Sox all checking in at nine-run totals. The matchup between the Orioles and Royals leads the way in the early afternoon with a 9.5 total on the board and plenty of potential in the inexpensive Baltimore lineup. The slate includes another six games that are totaled at 8.5 runs and just a few that do not look at least somewhat reasonable for MLB DFS scoring. A few massive implied team totals stand out on the board as well, the Blue Jays are leading the entire slate with an implied total of 5.4 while the Yankees drop in just beneath them at 5.3; no other team on the slate is currently cracking the five-run mark, making the two AL East titans jump off the page when considering stacks for the night. As always, getting to a strong mix of positively leveraged options is the recommended approach to building a full slate of lineups, but on a 15-game slate, the barrier to differentiation is far easier to clear, making it more straightforward to play chalk bats or pitchers where desired. Getting apart from any massive individual ownership is always worth the effort, being different on one player who does not come through at huge popularity while including an alternative hitter at lower ownership from the same stack is the easiest way to pass the field at the top of MLB DFS standings on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Best MLB DFS Tournament Strategy & Picks Today
Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Pavin Smith — 4.07
Atlanta Braves: Dansby Swanson — 4.51
Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 11.37
Boston Red Sox: Trevor Story — 9.14
Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 5.53
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 5.06
Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 12.11
Cleveland Guardians: Oscar Gonzalez — 7.07
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon — 6.04
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 6.05
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 6.37
Kansas City Royals: M.J. Melendez — 11.42
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 12.59
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 13.11
Miami Marlins: Jesus Sanchez — 7.34
Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 9.62
Minnesota Twins: Gary Sanchez — 4.62
New York Mets: Eduardo Escobar — 3.52
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 8.20
Oakland Athletics: Chad Pinder — 7.59
Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos — 8.02
Pittsburgh Pirates: Dan Vogelbach — 5.02
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 9.53
San Francisco Giants: Mike Yastrzemski — 5.76
Seattle Mariners: Eugenio Suarez — 7.09
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 6.69
Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Zunino — 5.13
Texas Rangers: Kole Calhoun — 10.06
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 22.43
Washington Nationals: Yadiel Hernandez — 4.31
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
While it seems unlikely that we exist in a universe that will allow the first 15-game slate of the season to be played on a day with no weather concerns, that does appear to be the current outlook. Keep your eyes on the skies for inbound meteors while rostering any desired team with confidence of a full game being played.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The huge pitching slate has a number of premium options and a significant amount of quality at a variety of price points on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The most interesting pitcher on both sites is going to be Atlanta’s Spencer Strider, the young flamethrower who can dazzle with his strikeout upside, but who has also had major problems with walks in his brief time in the show. Strider will be very popular at an excellent price in one of the night’s best matchups when he takes on the Pirates tonight, but he is far from safe. The slate includes ace-caliber arms with plenty of name recognition, but Joe Musgrove and Walker Buehler are having very different seasons. Musgrove has been far better and he has the seemingly better matchup, while Buehler has struggled, mostly with his fastball, and faces a tough Giants lineup but at a discounted price. The Marlins will have Pablo Lopez on the mound to face the Astros, Lopez has been every bit as good as anyone on this slate, but he comes at a high price in a brutal matchup by comparison to a number of other good options. Luis Severino is both popular and expensive, but he has MLB DFS point-scoring upside in a good matchup against the Cubs. Evaluating the mid-range makes it clear that Spencer Strider is not the only young pitcher with a chance to be relevant tonight, the Guardians will have Triston McKenzie on the mound to face the anemic Athletics, while Aaron Ashby leads the Brewers into Washington D.C. for a matchup with the Nationals, and Luis Garcia will be challenged by the frisky Marlins lineup. Veteran righty Kyle Gibson checks in at a low price on both sites, Tylor Megill will be at very low ownership in a game against the Angels that should yield strikeout upside, and Luis Castillo is lurking at low ownership and a cheap price across the industry. This list could easily include a handful of other options from the pitching pool, but there is a steep drop-off in the lower-third of options, the extreme value prices on DraftKings for pitchers like Jhonathan Diaz and Elvin Rodriguez are far more siren song than safe passage, lineups that include them are likely to wind up on the rocks.
Anyone with visions of rostering Spencer Strider at low ownership and positive leverage today will have those fragile hopes dashed with one glance at the Top Pitchers Tool. Strider does rank as one of the most likely pitchers to put up a slate-relevant score this evening on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he is too cheap for his strikeout acumen in this matchup against the Pirates, but he will be at or near a slate-worst leverage score with massive popularity projections across the MLB DFS industry tonight. Strider costs just $7,000 on DraftKings, where he will be in more than 35% of public lineups. The Braves righty costs just $7,200 on the blue site and checks in with an ownership projection in the neighborhood of 15% which makes Strider potentially more interesting on the single-starter site. The electric righty has a 36.8% strikeout rate over 32.2 innings, primarily in bulk relief outings out of the bullpen. He has made two starts with mixed results and he does have an unsustainable 13.5% walk rate so far this season. Despite the free passes, Strider has pitched to a 2.94 xFIP and a 2.76 ERA in the small sample, and he has yielded just a 0.75% home run rate on 39.4% hard-hit and a 9.1% barrel rate. The Pirates have yielded massive MLB DFS scores to far worse starters than this one, if he manages to harness the walks and pitch even slightly more efficiently, Strider has significant scoring upside. Pittsburgh’s active roster sits 20th in baseball with a .145 ISO and 17th with a 2.76% home run rate against righties, and those are their good attributes. The team ranks 26th with a 24.4% strikeout rate in the split and they have created runs 10% worse than average against righties this season. On a smaller slate, the raw popularity total and -21.5 leverage score would be warning signs, but Strider’s upside is massive and there are simply no options that rival him in the same price tier. On a slate where it will be easy to get different with bats, it makes sense to approach the field’s ownership on the Braves starter on DraftKings. At 15% public popularity, one could conceivably take on additional shares of this pitcher for the discounted price on the FanDuel slate in an attempt to win things with bats, but with so many options and only one bite at the pitching apple, it probably makes more sense to roster him at or even slightly below the field’s projected exposure.
Let’s talk about Walker Buehler. Most people would point to the righty’s 20.2% strikeout rate and rightfully suggest that he has struggled this season. Buehler struck out 26% over 207.2 innings last season, so the dip is clearly a noteworthy aspect of his season to this point, as is the pounding that opposing hitters have put on his fastball. A deep dive into Buehler’s Statcast profile suggests what the narratives in the media support, the pitcher is still tinkering with his fastball and cutter combination, searching for the right mix from both a volume and a break and location perspective. Buehler is throwing his fastball less often but leaving it in the zone far more regularly this season, while also throwing the pitch with more horizontal break than ever before. He has decreased usage of the pitch from 52% last season to just 38% this year while taking his cutter from a 17% usage pitch to a 25% option. Opposing hitters have pounded the suddenly basic fastball to the tune of a .638 slugging percentage and a .674 xSLG so far this season, but Buehler’s other pitches have largely been effective. The contact on his fastball is evident in the 40.6% hard-hit percentage that Buehler has allowed, but he has limited hitters to a 5.9% barrel rate and a 6.7-degree average launch angle while allowing just a 2.71% home run rate. He has a 3.74 xFIP with a 3.84 ERA over 61 innings in 11 starts this season, despite the lack of his typical putaway arsenal. It seems logical to expect Buehler to figure out his fastball location issues in a hurry, which should have an impact on the .311 batting average on balls in play that opposing hitters are currently stacking against the premium starter. With much of that contact coming on the ground, the BABIP is down to happenstance, Buehler has a 48.9% ground ball rate, the highest point he has reached in an extended sample since the 2018 season. The righty is not in an easy matchup, he will be taking on a Giants roster that has just a 19.4% strikeout rate against righties this season, the fourth-best mark in the split. San Francisco has shown middling power against right-handed pitching, their .159 ISO and 2.92% home run rate both rank 14th, but their run creation sits 13% above average and ranks ninth in the split. With a cheap-for-him price and popularity approaching zero on both sites, leveraging up on shares of Buehler and betting on the track record seems worthwhile in MLB DFS tournaments.
The Rockies have a 14th-ranked 21.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, making that their best attribute in the split. Colorado’s collective ISO sits at a 22nd-ranked .139, they have a 2.75% home run rate that sits 18th, and their lowly WRC+ comes in 14% below average, the 26th-best in baseball. The team is facing Padres ace Joe Musgrove, who has had a strong start to his 2022 campaign. Musgrove checks in at a high price from site to site and he will be popular, but he is worthwhile in this matchup. The righty has a 24.8% strikeout rate over 66 innings in 10 starts, he is very reliable for depth and the potential for wins and quality start bonuses. While the 1.64 ERA may not be entirely real, Musgrove has a very sharp 3.26 xFIP with a 0.92 WHIP and just a 5.4% walk rate this season. He has induced an 11.3% swinging strike rate while racking up an excellent 31.3% CSW% and allowing just a 4.5% barrel rate in his 36.7% hard-hit percentage, amounting to merely a 1.55% home run rate. Musgrove is an easy enough option to pluck from the top of the board on either site, he will be popular on both sites, but there are plenty of ways to differentiate lineups on a 15-game slate.
Milwaukee’s Aaron Ashby has a 30.5% strikeout rate over 46 innings and six starts so far this season. Ashby can conceivably pitch at this level on a sustained basis, and he has been equally good for preventing run creation and limiting hard hits. The southpaw has struggled with walks, he has an 11.2% walk rate that puts him on a similar footing with Strider, but he has pitched to a sterling 2.78 xFIP with a 3.13 ERA to this point in the season. Ashby has limited hard hits to just 29.8% so far, with just a 3.5% barrel rate and an average launch angle of 0.4 degrees. Between the excellent strikeout rate and a 64.6% ground ball rate, Ashby is absolutely brutal on opposing offenses. The opposing Nationals are an odd matchup, the team has a league-best 17% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, but they check in with a pathetic 1.14% home run rate and a .091 ISO that both sit 28th in the split while their 94 WRC+ ranks 22nd. Ashby has the talent to find strikeouts in the matchup, but they will not be easy to come by, at the same time, he has an enhanced chance of pitching deep into the game and accruing both a win and quality start, where that matters. Ashby is inexpensive for his talent, he lands in the mid-$8,000s on both sites and checks in at less than 15% popularity, he can be rostered at or around the field’s exposure.
Cleveland is hosting the Athletics, perhaps baseball’s worst overall lineup, and they will have Triston McKenzie on the mound to benefit from the cakewalk. McKenzie has a solid 22.3% strikeout rate over 58 innings this season, though that is far down from the 27.5% he posted in 120 innings and 24 starts last year. The righty seems to be working on harnessing his control and command this season, he has cut walks from 11.7% to just 7.3% while pitching to a 0.86 WHIP and inducing an 11.1% swinging-strike rate but generating just a 24.8% CSW%. McKenzie is a work in progress, and he has a 21.7% popularity projection at $8,800 on DraftKings. Oakland’s active roster has a .111 ISO and a 1.67% home run rate that rank 28th and 30th against righties and they have created runs a league-worst 26% below average in the split. The team strikes out at a 23.1% clip that sits 21st, McKenzie is a targetable upside play, but he is potentially more interesting at a higher price tag on FanDuel. The public appears to be balking at the $9,800 asking price on the blue site, McKenzie is projected for just 5.8% popularity at the hefty price, he is an interesting differentiation piece for FanDuel tournaments.
The endless list of quality options on this pitching slate could keep someone typing all afternoon. The pitching depth on a 15-game slate is so absurd that there are even three good options named Luis available tonight. Luis Severino brings a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 3.42 xFIP into a matchup against a Cubs team that has a 21.7% strikeout rate that ranks exactly in the middle of the league against righties this season. Chicago’s active roster has created runs 3% better than average but they have lacked power in the split with just a .148 ISO and a 2.59% home run rate. Severino ranks near the top of the probability board on both sites, but he is drawing negative leverage and significant popularity at a higher price than several other premium options. Luis Garcia will be facing a Miami roster that has been very good against right-handed pitching this year, the Marlins have a 119 WRC+ in the split, ranking them fourth for run creation. The team can also hit for power, they have a .175 ISO and a 3.29% home run rate, but they do strike out 21.9% of the time against righties. Garcia has a 23.5% strikeout rate over 55.2 innings in 10 starts this season, and he has a 12% swinging-strike rate that suggests he can find strikeouts against anyone, but he is not entirely safe in the matchup. The advantageous ownership situation can be targeted, however. Garcia checks in with single-digit ownership for just $8,900 on FanDuel while landing at 12% popularity for a slightly higher price across town. Luis Castillo has been solid in his late start to the season, he has a 25.2% strikeout rate with a 3.22 xFIP and a 3.55 ERA over 33 innings in six starts. Castillo checks in with low single-digit ownership on both sites, despite being priced in the high $8,000s across the industry. The Reds righty is as good an option as anyone on the slate, but the public is leaving him on the table in a matchup against a Cardinals roster that has created runs 12% better than average while striking out just 19.8% of the time against righties. This is not an easy spot for any starter, but Castillo has an underappreciated upside on this slate. On the other side of the Houston vs Miami game, Pablo Lopez is drawing less than 1% popularity on both sites, which is probably a mistake in any matchup. Lopez has been excellent this season, he has a 26.1% strikeout rate with a 3.10 xFIP and a 2.18 ERA over 66 innings, but he will be facing the Astros who are both good at creating runs and very difficult to strike out. Lopez is a good contrarian option from the top tier of salary, but his range of outcomes is fairly broad for this start.
Toronto Blue Jays
In scouring the internet, if there is a site that does not suggest the Blue Jays as a fantastic option for pure MLB DFS scoring tonight, it can safely be deleted from browser bookmarks. A matchup against the wrong E-Rod has Toronto number one with a bullet in both the power index and Awesemo’s Top Stacks Tool for both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Tigers righty Elvin Rodriguez is simply not a major league pitcher at this point in his career. Rodriguez has thrown 16 innings in three starts, striking out just 19.4% and pitching to a 5.04 xFIP with a 9.7% walk rate, a 1.67 WHIP, and just a 6.9% swinging-strike rate. To say that Rodriguez is targetable would be an insult to targets, the pitcher is a gigantic flashing hit me hard sign and it is imperative that the Blue Jays are prioritized on this slate. Rodriguez has yielded a ridiculous 8.33% home run rate, giving up six long balls in the small sample. Toronto sports significant power in spots throughout their lineup, starting with star leadoff man George Springer, who has hit 11 home runs while creating runs 39% better than average this season. Springer is followed by Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who are both underperforming expectations while still creating runs and hitting for power at above-average clips. Guerrero has a gargantuan home run rating on tonight’s slate, he has hit 13 this season, it seems likely to be 14 by this time tomorrow. Teoscar Hernandez is a frequently forgotten outfielder in the heart of the order, but he is drawing his fair share of popularity on the blue site where he costs just $2,800 today. That discount has Hernandez as the most popular bat on the team on that site, he sits at just 8.8% for the correct $5,000 price tag on DraftKings. Alejandro Kirk, Santiago Espinal, and Matt Chapman add quality to the middle of the projected lineup before leading into Raimel Tapia and Cavan Biggio, who round out the Blue Jays’ batting order with a blend of mid-range pop and speed. The team can and should be rostered in a variety of combinations from one through nine tonight on both sites, the bottom half of the injury comes at low ownership on FanDuel while the entire team is at 10% or less popularity on DraftKings.
New York Yankees
The other team with an implied total above five runs tonight will be facing lefty Wade Miley in their hitter-friendly park in the Bronx. The Yankees land as Awesemo’s second-ranked team by their probability of success, but their stack score falls below that of several other contenders based on high prices and negative leverage. New York has pounded left-handed pitching this season, the team has a .197 ISO that ranks third in the split, their massive 4.51% home run rate is baseball’s best, and the 14% above average WRC+ sits 10th against lefties. Miley is a soft tosser with a 15.4% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate in his 16 innings this season. He had an 18.1% strikeout rate with a 2.46% home run percentage and a 4.07 xFIP in 163 innings last season, he can be targeted with bats. All of the hitters in the projected Yankees lineup are carrying less than 10% popularity on DraftKings. The team lands in the low-to-mid teens on the blue site, where their low prices make them more popular, but they are highly playable in this spot. D.J. LeMahieu is likely to lead off for a lineup that will feature Aaron Judge’s extreme power upside in the two spot, and, most likely, first baseman Anthony Rizzo hitting third. The team does not like to stack three right-handed hitters atop the lineup, even against a lefty, so Rizzo will probably remain in that spot while he is followed by Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and Gleyber Torres. Shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the low-end option who can typically be skipped in Yankees stacks, he is dispossessed of power and has limited correlated scoring upside, even the team’s catchers are better bets to get involved. Switch-hitting center fielder Aaron Hicks or Joey Gallo will be an option at some point in the lineup, depending on whether Stanton slots into the outfield or designated hitter role. Gallo is the better option, he loses essentially none of his massive power against same-handed pitching, he is the same hitter in all circumstances.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles were featured in a good matchup yesterday and they bounce nearly to the top of stack rankings in an even better spot against middling Jonathan Heasley. The righty has delivered just a 12.8% strikeout rate with a 15.4% walk percentage over his 25.1 innings in five starts this season. Heasley has an atrocious 6.25 xFIP under a passable 4.62 ERA that could fool those not paying attention. With just a 9% swinging-strike rate and a 24% CSW% as well as a 1.70 WHIP and a 43.9% hard-hit percentage with a 9.8% barrel rate, Heasley is another extremely hittable pitcher on this slate. Baltimore’s bats have come to life in recent weeks, the team includes a number of quality options starting from center fielder Cedric Mullins II and excellent first baseman Trey Mancini. The duo atop the lineup could not be more different, Mullins is carrying a team-high 12.5% ownership projection on DraftKings and a 19% mark on FanDuel, while Mancini comes in at just 1.9% and 5.6% respectively. The first baseman is under-owned as the public opts for shares of Ryan Mountcastle at the position from later in the lineup. In between the dueling first basemen, outfielders Anthony Santander and Austin Hays can be rostered at fair prices and around 5% popularity on FanDuel. Santander is cheap at $3,700 on DraftKings, which pushes his popularity to around 10%, but he is easy enough to include, while Hays is in the middle single-digits for public exposure. After Mountcastle, who is still under-owned at just 8.3% and 4.3% from green site to blue, is catcher Adley Rutschman, who has not discovered his form at the plate at this level so far, as well as Rougned Odor, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo. Odor has the longer track record and he has hit six home runs this season, but Urias has a matching home run total with a 50.8% hard-hit percentage and a 9.4% barrel rate to Odor’s 33.6% and 6.6% marks, and neither could beat Mateo in a 40-yard dash if given a 15-yard head start.
Boston Red Sox
Everyone loves a good late-night hammer on a Friday, and with a 10:10 ET start in their game in Seattle, the loaded Red Sox lineup has limited lefty Marco Gonzales looking an awful lot like a nail tonight. Gonzales has pitched to a 4.72 xFIP over 57.2 innings in 11 starts this season, he had a 5.16 xFIP in 143.1 innings last year. The southpaw has yielded a 37.9% hard-hit percentage with an 8.7% barrel rate, premium contact that has amounted to a 4.44% home run rate, and he is another pitcher whose ERA may fool some into thinking there is quality where there is none. Gonzales has a 3.59 ERA, but his swinging-strike rate sits at just 7.4%, his CSW% checks in at a pathetic 21.8%, and he has walked 7.3% of hitters while striking out just 13.7%. Boston has created runs 13% better than average with a .161 ISO against lefties after getting out to a slow start to their season. The team is projected for single-digit ownership up and down the lineup on both sites, they make for an excellent stack target on this slate.
With a cheap hitter projected in the leadoff spot in the absence of their usual choice, the Red Sox stack gets going easily with Christian Arroyo, who is capable of delivering value at his discounted salary. Arroyo has made 96 plate appearances and he is slashing .191/.232/.326 while creating runs 46% worse than average, but he has shown flashes of power in hitting three home runs this year. The long balls come on the back of a 37.8% hard-hit percentage with a 12.2% barrel rate for a hitter who only strikes out 17.7% of the time while walking in just 3.1% of his plate appearances. Arroyo is a good option to put the ball in play, last season he slashed .262/.324/.445 and created runs 6% better than average in 181 plate appearances, there is upside at just $2,100 with three-position eligibility on the FanDuel slate, but Arroyo is projected for 15.2% popularity on the blue site. He lands at just 7.6% on DraftKings, where he is far more playable for half the popularity. Every other Red Sox hitter comes at 5.4% popularity or lower on both sites.
Rafael Devers has hit 12 home runs this season, with two of them coming against left-handed pitching, a 3.33% rate. For his career, Devers is a .276/.327/.424 hitter with a .148 ISO who creates runs exactly at league average against same-handed pitching, but the field is overcorrecting for the split against this specific lefty. With all of the contact that Gonzales allows, it seems inconceivable that Devers would be completely shut down by the platoon matchup. He is pulling a team-leading mark in today’s home run model, but he lands at just 2.4% popularity on FanDuel and 5.1% on DraftKings. Devers should have little issue with Gonzales, and he seems likely to see right-handed pitching out of the bullpen if things go to plan.
Veteran power-hitting outfielder J.D. Martinez costs $5,000 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel and he will be at or around 5% popularity across the industry. Martinez has hit five home runs this season, but he is slashing .351/.415/.543 and creating runs 72% better than average in his 212 plate appearances. The under-owned hitter has a 44.6% hard-hit percentage with a 12.9% barrel rate, he is an excellent option for run creation and there is still lingering power upside in his bat.
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts has been dealing with lingering injury issues and has been in and out of the lineup in recent days, but he is an outstanding option if he plays. Bogaerts is slashing .319/.386/.476 while creating runs 46% better than average over 236 plate appearances, he is one of the top bats at his position on any slate. The veteran right-handed hitter has struck out 20.8% of the time while walking at an 8.9% clip this season. He has a 40.5% hard-hit percentage and an 8% barrel rate that have yielded six home runs. There is upside for more, particularly against this starting pitcher.
Trevor Story turned believers into doubters then brought them back to the fold with a torrid stretch in May. Story is now sitting at a .230/.316/.439 triple-slash over 225 plate appearances, with nine home runs and a .209 ISO. The under-owned infielder has a 39.5% hard-hit percentage with an excellent 14% barrel rate this year, though he has a team-worst 31.1% strikeout rate. Story has added eight stolen bases and he has created runs 11% better than average, he is a worthy addition to stacks, but it is difficult to combine him with the previous three hitters on DraftKings, where all four are at $5,000 or higher. The task is somewhat easier on FanDuel, with Martinez and Bogaerts checking in at just $3,600 and $3,800 respectively, and with Story carrying multi-position eligibility that helps differentiate lineups that skip Bogaerts.
Lefty outfielder Alex Verdugo is projected in the six spot, but the team may favor the right-handed power of Bobby Dalbec or catcher Christian Vazquez in this spot. Any of the three hitters is playable in this position, and all three are likely to land in some order in the bottom third of the lineup; not one of them will be owned more than 3.5% on either site or there is a lot of skill between them. Verdugo is slashing .251/.293/.362 and creating runs 19% worse than average with limited power, but he had a 107 WRC+ over 604 plate appearances last year and has a more highly regarded bat than he has shown to this point in the season. Vazquez is slashing .279/.325/.388 with two home runs in 160 plate appearances, but the power he showed in hitting 23 home runs in 2019 seems mostly gone. Dalbec is the premium power bat, though you have to look closely at his statistics to see it. The slugger has scuffled to a .193/.274/.303 triple-slash with just three home runs this season, but he still has a 47.1% hard-hit percentage with an 8.8% barrel rate after hitting 25 home runs in 453 opportunities last year. Dalbec is a good bet to finish with more than 20 home runs this season, despite a slow start, he can be included in stacks for a low price and no popularity. Jackie Bradley Jr. is a less appealing option unless defense counts where you play MLB DFS.
Home Run Prediction Today: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Toronto Blue Jays
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[MLBPAGE]
