Memorial Day Monday MLB DFS features wall-to-wall baseball action with excellent contests through the day leading up to a six-game evening main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The main slate includes a 10-run total in what seems like the 74th consecutive Orioles vs Red Sox game, as well as an inflated 10.5 run mark for the Brewers vs Cubs matchup at Wrigley Field in Chicago with the wind blowing out. The balance of the slate is made up of competitive contests with eight or 8.5-run totals, with the exception of a lopsided line in the Pirates vs Dodgers game that heavily favors hometown Los Angeles. With ace Walker Buehler on the mound, the Dodgers look like a strong bet for the big win and for quality shares of MLB DFS lineups. There are a number of targets on the board, including an exciting pitching debut and some strong positive leverage marks on both sides of the game. Building successful MLB DFS lineups on this slate should largely be a matter of working within the positively leveraged teams as primary stacking options with a fair mix of the positively leveraged and the highly probable starting pitchers. With a big thank you to our servicemen and servicewomen around the world, we dive into today’s interesting DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
Best MLB DFS Tournament Strategy & Picks Today
Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Daulton Varsho — 5.27
Atlanta Braves: Dansby Swanson — 6.52
Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 7.53
Boston Red Sox: Trevor Story — 8.42
Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 6.65
Los Angeles Dodgers: Mookie Betts — 6.07
Milwaukee Brewers: Tyrone Taylor — 10.36
New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 14.43
Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Chavis — 6.03
Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 4.41
Texas Rangers: Mitch Garver — 4.44
Washington Nationals: Nelson Cruz — 9.15
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
There appear to be no weather concerns whatsoever on a beautiful Memorial Day around the country, load up whichever lineups you’re interested in and enjoy your barbecues.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Monday’s pitching slate features one of baseball’s best starters taking on one of the game’s worst lineups, with righty Walker Buehler on the mound in the late game for the Dodgers, who will be hosting the lowly Pirates. Buehler has been down in terms of strikeouts, but effective overall through this season, this looks like a terrific get-right spot for the righty to find his strikeout stuff and post a strong MLB DFS score across the industry. Buehler has limited competition in terms of proven track record or even name recognition on this slate. The second-most familiar starter for the public is likely Arizona’s Zac Gallen, who is in an excellent strikeout spot against the power-packed Atlanta Braves. Gallen is a good pitcher who can potentially exploit the Braves’ 30th-ranked 27% strikeout rate against righties this year. The Rays will have Drew Rasmussen on the mound against the middling Rangers, Rasmussen is a solid option for strikeouts, and he has an opportunity to pitch through this lineup cleanly three times and reach a win and quality start bonus. Lefty David Peterson has a high-quality matchup against the top-heavy lineup of the Nationals. If he can get through Juan Soto and Nelson Cruz a couple of times over, he has upside for both strikeouts and success bonuses that could make for a viable play on a slate of this nature. The most exciting starter on the slate is potential wildcard Spencer Strider, who is drawing ownership on both sites in his debut against the Diamondbacks. Strider is a high-upside strikeout flamethrower who has been pitching in a multi-inning role out of the bullpen, he is potentially elite in the long term, but he may struggle with walks and depth in his debut start.
The Braves rookie right-hander checks in with a 25% ownership projection at $6,900 on DraftKings and he projects for 8.3% popularity on the FanDuel slate, where he costs $6,800. Spencer Strider is a name the public became familiar with over the past few weeks as he gained momentum with elite strikeout performances out of the bullpen. The mustachioed marvel has a 38.9% strikeout rate over 24.1 innings with an outrageous 16.8% swinging-strike rate. Strider does come with a warning label across the MLB DFS industry, however. He is still a two-pitch rookie making his debut as a starter in the Show, and his pitch count seems unlikely to go far beyond 80. Strider has utilized his plus-plus four-seam fastball 73% of the time this season. The elite pitch generates a 31.7% whiff rate at an average of 99 mph. Strider’s second pitch is an elite wipeout slider that generates a 48.8% whiff rate and comes in at a 13 mph offset from his elite fastball. The young righty has thrown nine changeups in his innings out of the bullpen, he is unlikely to rely on the pitch, but he may unleash it, for better or worse, more often in his role as a starter. Strider has reached a high point of 71 pitches out of the bullpen, and his most recent high was a 69-pitch outing on May sixth. Even with the potentially limited pitch count, Strider has the strikeout acumen to post a highly relevant fantasy score in an outing against an Arizona active roster that has a 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, the 26th-ranked team in the game. The Diamondbacks have been surprising for power in the split this season, but it seems unlikely to last, their .200 ISO and 3.90% home run rate against righties currently both sit second, and they have created runs a 13th-ranked 10% better than average, so it may pay to draw some hedge stacks if getting ahead of the field on Strider on either site.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of baseball’s worst teams against right-handed pitching. The team’s active roster has a .120 ISO and a 1.94% home run rate in the split, the 26th and 28th-ranked power marks against righties this season. The team has been 15% worse than average creating runs against righties, and they strike out at a 24.4% rate that checks in 24th out of the game’s 30 teams. This all plays in Walker Buehler’s favor tonight. The Dodgers’ righty ace has seen his strikeout numbers dip in the early part of the season as he dabbles with different pitch mixes. Over 207.2 innings last year, Buehler struck out 26% of opposing hitters, this season that rate has dropped to just 19.1% in 52.2 innings. Buehler has otherwise been very similar in most aspects of the game, he has a 3.81 xFIP that is slightly up from his 3.57 from last year, but he has the exact same 6.4% walk rate, and he has suffered from some inflated BABIP numbers against. The righty has improved his home run rate from an already good 2.33% mark last year to a 1.36% rate this season on a barrel rate that has dipped from 6.8% to 4.3%. Buehler is inducing more swinging strikes this season, increasing that rate from 11.6% to 12.3%, but his CSW% has dropped from 29.6% to 26%, meaning he has not been working in the zone for called strikes as frequently. Against a non-threatening Pirates lineup that provides plenty of strikeout upside, Buehler is in an excellent spot. The Dodgers righty will be extremely popular and negatively leveraged on both sites, but he is well worth a large investment of pitching shares, there are no truly comparable options on the board tonight, Buehler is alone in terms of both talent and matchup, on DraftKings he is not even the most expensive starter. It would not be a mistake to just roster Buehler at or about the field’s ownership, though drawing shares to spread around to positively leveraged options is probably the stronger approach to a full slate of lineups.
Tampa Bay righty Drew Rasmussen should be more popular despite an $8,900 price tag on FanDuel and a $10,100 mark on DraftKings. Rasmussen has been a solid option over 43.2 innings in nine starts this season, pitching to a 23.7% strikeout rate with a 3.11 xFIP and a 2.68 ERA. The righty has induced an 11.8% swinging strike rate with a 26.2% CSW% and a 5.8% walk rate with a 0.98 WHIP, he has not given away many opportunities to opposing offenses this season. The pitcher had similar numbers across the board in 76 innings and 10 starts last season as well, the extended sample supports the strong mid-range quality that Rasmussen can provide at low ownership against a Texas lineup that has not been great this season. The Rangers’ active roster has a .131 ISO and a 2.85% home run rate against righties this season. The home run mark sits in the top half of the league at 13th in the split, but the team’s ISO ranks 24th and they strike out at a 24.1% rate that sits 23rd. There is more than enough upside for MLB DFS scoring in this matchup for Rasmussen, he is the highest-ranked pitcher with both low ownership and positive leverage and he makes an excellent target for shares beyond the field’s exposure on both sites.
On the other side of the game in the desert, righty Zac Gallen checks in with fair popularity and negative leverage in an excellent matchup for strikeouts against the Atlanta Braves. Gallen has a 24.7% strikeout rate this year and he put up a 26.6% rate over 121.1 innings in 23 starts in 2021. The righty has induced a 10% swinging-strike rate this year while walking just 5.7% and pitching to a 3.66 xFIP with a 0.83 WHIP. He has been excellent for contact this year as well, Gallen has just a 1.15% home run rate on a 31% hard-hit percentage with a 6% barrel rate. The solid starter will have to navigate a loaded Braves lineup that sits sixth with a .171 ISO and fifth with a 3.42% home run rate against righties this season. Working in the pitcher’s favor are the fact that the Braves have created runs just 1% better than average despite the power output in the split, and even more that, they have a league-worst 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. This lineup has yielded high upside starts several times in recent weeks, Gallen has a chance to exploit the strikeout potential for a large MLB DFS score, but he is a negative leverage play with nearly 40% public popularity on DraftKings and 20% on the single-pitcher blue site.
Milwaukee Brewers
In the second game of their doubleheader, the Brewers are pulling in by far the slate’s highest probability of being the top stack on both sites. They are also crushingly popular on the main slate tonight. Milwaukee is at significant negative leverage at the top of the board, with essentially every other team at either positive leverage or playable ownership. With a matchup against limited lefty Drew Smyly, who has just an 18.2% strikeout rate with a 4.71% home run rate over 39.2 innings this season, the Brewers are loaded for bear with power this evening. Unfortunately, most of the hitters in the lineup are projected for ownership shares approaching 40% on the blue site and 30% or above on DraftKings. The team has been productive throughout the season, and they have an excellent hitting environment this evening, but their team numbers are far better against righties, which could be an under-discussed aspect of this matchup. While no one is advocating for rostering Smyly in this spot, it is noteworthy that so much of the public will be rostering a team with an active roster 29% worse than average creating runs against lefties this season. Milwaukee’s collective .104 ISO and 2.20% home run rate in the split sit 26th and 20th against lefties, and the team has a 22.7% strikeout rate that sits 19th. While shares of Andrew McCutchen, Luis Urias, Christian Yelich, Tyrone Taylor, Mike Brosseau and Keston Hiura, lineup depending, all of those players are dramatically over-owned on both sites. Undercutting the field on Brewers shares in favor of essentially any other choice is advisable, when utilizing stacks of Milwaukee players it is very important to focus on differentiation of pitchers and secondary stacks.
New York Mets
Mets lefty David Peterson is worthy of inclusion for shares on the mound at a good price and mid-range popularity on both sites. He will be backed up by a strong lineup in an excellent matchup that should help him reach a win bonus. On the other side of the game, middling righty Erick Fedde is an excellent target for New York’s premium bats, who all come at efficient ownership or positive leverage. Fedde has a 4.16 xFIP with a 3.55 ERA this season, but he has struck out just 21.4% of opposing hitters while yielding a 40.2% hard-hit percentage. The righty has limited home runs to just a 2.55% rate this season, but that seems like happenstance given his stuff, limited strikeout upside, and a 3.90% rate over 133.1 innings just last year. New York’s lineup does not include a hitter projected for more than 10% ownership on DraftKings, while public exposure peaks at Starling Marte’s 12.5% mark on the FanDuel slate. Marte is an excellent target for individual performance and correlated scoring who can be combined with the elite power of Pete Alonso, the still realistic upside of scuffling shortstop Francisco Lindor, the horseshoe Jeff McNeil wears around his neck and whatever else is in the bottom of the Mets lineup. Switch-hitting Eduardo Escobar has not produced much this season, but he hit 28 home runs with a .219 ISO just last year and he is cheap and unpopular across the industry from the sixth spot in the projected lineup. Mark Canha and Luis Guillorme are interesting mix-and-match options from anywhere in the lineup, although the team will be without injured leadoff man Brandon Nimmo for the foreseeable future. Getting beyond the field on Mets stacks is an easy pivot from popular Brewers bats while remaining at a high probability of success on tonight’s MLB DFS slate.
Atlanta Braves
While the popular and negatively leveraged Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers all rank higher than the Braves by their probability of success, Atlanta looks like a good option for power, and they come at an excellent leverage score with low ownership against a popular pitcher. It makes sense to be on both sides of the Gallen and Braves bats equation, just as it makes sense to include shares of Spencer Strider and the Diamondbacks lineup on the other side. Atlanta is targetable with the pitcher based on their strikeouts, but they remain an elite top-to-bottom lineup that has excellent power despite the league-average run creation against righties. At single-digit ownership on DraftKings and just 12% popularity on FanDuel, leadoff superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is an excellent play at any price. Acuna has two home runs and nine stolen bases in his 89 plate appearances since returning to the lineup, he has significantly more upside for MLB DFS scoring. Shortstop Dansby Swanson is projected to hit second again tonight, earning a promotion based on six home runs and a 118 WRC+ with a 42.9% hard-hit percentage and a 12.5% barrel rate, as well as the struggles of others in this lineup. Swanson leads to a powerful group of bats including Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies. Catcher William Contreras and outfielder Adam Duvall can be included in stacks, while popular waiver-wire addition and early arriving prospect Will Harris can be included wherever available. Harris is a highly regarded hitter who earned a surprise promotion at the start of the weekend. The Braves are under-owned on both sites tonight, but Gallen is talented. Getting over the field but not to an outrageous degree is the approach.
Baltimore Orioles
With a strong positive leverage score and a good probability mark on both sites in the Top Stacks Tool, the Orioles look like an interesting tournament option across the industry tonight. Baltimore’s underperforming lineup was better against lefties last season, and while they have been bad against both hands but better against righties in 2022, their talented young lineup features several high-end right-handed bats that suggest they will improve in the split as the season continues. The team is taking on limited veteran lefty Rich Hill, who has just a 16.7% strikeout rate in 35 innings this year after putting up a 22.7% rate in 158.2 last season. Hill had a 4.70 xFIP and a 3.18% home run rate in that sample last year and he sits at a 4.62 xFIP with a 2.78% home run rate this season, he is targetable for run creation and the Orioles could find sneaky power with the potentially high frequency of contact.
Switch-hitting Cedric Mullins II leads off for the Orioles at just $4,600 and below 10% popularity on both sites. Mullins was one of baseball’s biggest surprises last year, he put up a massive 30 home run 30 stolen bases season in 675 plate appearances while slashing .291/.360/.518 and creating runs 36% better than average. This season the outfielder’s numbers have dipped significantly, as have those of much of this lineup with the changes to their home park. Mullins is slashing .241/.303/.372 with five home runs, but he has stolen 11 bases in his 219 plate appearances. At low prices and popularity, Mullins is worthy of inclusion in stacks for steals and correlated scoring, but his contact will need to improve from 36.3% hard-hit and a 6.9% barrel rate if he is going to regain his home run form.
Trey Mancini is a right-handed power bat who has certainly struggled with the new dimensions in the team’s ballpark, but everything else about his game has remained intact so far. Mancini is slashing .298/.368/.386 with a .088 ISO and just three home runs, but he has created runs 21% better than average in his 193 plate appearances and he has a 43.8% hard-hit percentage with a 9.5% barrel rate. Mancini is underrated and inexpensive at just $4,100 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel. At just 9.5% popularity on the blue site, he is both the most popular Orioles bat and too low-owned.
Anthony Santander hits from both sides of the plate just like Mullins, and similar to his outfield mate, he has also seen his numbers change from his performance last year. In 2021, Santander hit 18 home runs in 438 plate appearances, though his WRC+ sat at just a 92, 8% below average overall while he slashes .241/.286/.433. This season, Santander is slashing .219/.335/.391 with eight home runs and a run creation mark that sits 14% above average. The marked improvement in his on-base percentage has been a difference-maker for the outfielder, Santander provides cheap power at low ownership on both sites tonight.
With five home runs and a WRC+ that sits 38% better than average, inexpensive Austin Hays has been the most reliably productive player for the Orioles overall this season. The outfielder costs just $3,700 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel at low-to-mid single-digit ownership. Hays has a sturdy 43.5% hard-hit percentage with an excellent 15.3% strikeout rate this season, and he walks at just an average 8.2% clip, meaning the ball is put in play with power frequently. The righty hitter mashed 22 home runs and had a .205 ISO in 529 plate appearances last year, there is additional power potential lurking at low public exposures.
Ryan Mountcastle is too cheap at just $2,800 on the DraftKings slate and $3,200 on FanDuel. The graduated top prospect hit 33 home runs in 586 plate appearances as a rookie last season, posting a .232 ISO while creating runs 11% better than average, this season he has dipped to a .122 ISO and a WRC+ 14% below average in his 156 opportunities, which has created the price and popularity discount. Mountcastle remains an elite bat, he has a 43.9% hard-hit percentage and a 13.1% barrel rate this season, the power is coming.
Catcher Adley Rutschman is another former top prospect who has a full-time role with the big club and wields a strong right-handed bat in the middle of this lineup. The backstop has just 35 plate appearances under his belt after his recent promotion, he is searching for his form at the Major League level while slashing .167/286/.233 and creating runs 41% worse than average, but he has shown an advanced eye at the plate so far, striking out just 17.1% of the time while walking 11.4% in the small sample. Rutschman is another excellent long-term bet who has any given slate value on both sites at low prices and popularity.
Ramon Urias provides flexibility between third base and shortstop for a low price on DraftKings, and he checks in at just $2,200 as a third baseman on the blue site. Urias has three home runs and a .116 ISO while creating runs 19% worse than average this year, but he did create runs 15% ahead of the curve over a larger sample in 296 plate appearances last year. Urias has position and popularity offset value on DraftKings, he has a little more utility for the bargain-basement price on FanDuel. For just $200 above the minimum price, Urias’ 50.5% hard-hit percentage is worthy of a handful of shares when rostering a number of Orioles stacks.
Lefty second baseman Rougned Odor does not offer the same hard-hit upside as Urias, and he is slashing just .225/.260/.408 this season. Odor strikes out at a 24.7% rate while hitting four home runs and creating runs 11% worse than average, the lefty is something of a late lineup afterthought.
Speedster Jorge Mateo would be a fantasy weapon if he could get on base with any reliability whatsoever. Mateo has made 162 plate appearances; he is slashing .216/.250/.346 while creating runs 31% worse than average. Getting on base just a quarter of the time destroys the value of Mateo’s speed, though he has stolen 12 bases in the self-limited opportunities. If he manages to get on base a few times, the shortstop is a wraparound asset. He can even provide power from time to time, with three home runs this season.
Home Run Prediction Today: Matt Olson — Atlanta Braves
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