The Monday main slate of MLB DFS action features matching 10-game contests from site to site, beginning at a standard 7:05 ET start time. The slate is looking so straightforward it is almost unnerving to analyze. There appear to be no weather concerns, and everything aligns as expected in the various tools. In fact, the oddest thing about this slate is the fact that the Kansas City Royals are playing the San Francisco Giants, an interleague matchup that still does not jibe with a sports brain that was formed in the 80s and 90s. The board in Vegas sees that game and the contest between the Marlins and Phillies as the low points of the night for run creation, with both games carrying 7.5 totals. The highwater mark comes in the matchup between the Braves and Nationals, the Braves are seeing a big spike in today’s power index on the back of the opposing pitcher’s numbers and a hefty 10-run total. The remaining games land between 8.5 and 9.5 on the board, and all of the Braves, Blue Jays, Cardinals, and Astros are pulling in implied team totals of five runs or more, making them the prime targets for stacks in a price and popularity vacuum. The Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools are keys to finding the best combinations available on a slate of this nature, and the new Top Hitters Tool can help with in-stack decisions and one-off selections for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Daulton Varsho — 8.17
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. — 22.05
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 6.41
Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 8.99
Chicago White Sox: A.J. Pollock — 16.70
Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto — 7.35
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 6.62
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 12.42
Kansas City Royals: MJ Melendez — 6.88
Miami Marlins: Jesus Sanchez — 8.60
Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 5.84
Philadelphia Phillies: Didi Gregorius — 4.27
Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Chavis — 10.44
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 11.88
San Francisco Giants: Wilmer Flores — 5.36
Seattle Mariners: Abraham Toro — 6.08
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Gorman — 5.75
Texas Rangers: Brad Miller — 7.41
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 17.11
Washington Nationals: Lane Thomas — 5.45
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
The weather across the league looks non-threatening with conditions that are ripe for hitting in most stadiums. Temperatures are on the rise from coast to coast, the game in Washington D.C. will play in the mid-to-high 80s, while the matchup in St. Louis is staring down the barrel of 95 degrees through the late afternoon. The games in Texas and Arizona will almost certainly be played with closed roofs, given 100-degree forecasts, but there are numerous spots for offense on this slate.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the Top Stacks Tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Monday’s MLB DFS action features a robust list of available pitchers including Phillies ace Aaron Nola who will be facing the upstart Marlins who answer back with an ace of their own in Sandy Alcantara. Yu Darvish, who lands in a better matchup against the swing-happy Cubs and may be in the best spot of the three most established starters. The Braves will have Ian Anderson tangling with the Nationals on a balmy night in the swap of our nation’s capital, and Cristian Javier is facing the Rangers at a fair price. Lance Lynn will make his long-awaited return for the White Sox in a soft matchup against the Tigers and Blue Jays righty Alek Manoah is on the board in a contest taking on the Orioles. The Reds’ Mike Minor checks in at extreme discount pricing in a start against the Diamondbacks, who have scuffled against lefties this season, which could make him one of the more compelling value plays despite his general lack of quality.
Phillies right-handed ace Aaron Nola will toe the rubber in a sneakily challenging matchup against the Marlins tonight, with Sandy Alcantara on the mound for Miami. Both starters are having strong seasons, and both make for good options for MLB DFS purposes. Nola is carrying a 29.3% strikeout rate over 74.2 innings in 12 starts, he has been very sharp to start the season, pitching to a 2.93 xFIP and a 3.50 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP. Nola has limited premium contact to a 34.4% hard-hit percentage and a 7.4% barrel rate, but he has allowed a 3.45% home run rate that seems higher than it should be with those contact marks. Nola is an ace by any measure, he is drawing heavy public popularity and it would not be surprising in the least to see him finish the night with the highest fantasy score, but he is facing a Marlins team that has been good at creating runs against righties this year which is at least worth noting. Miami’s active roster has a .176 ISO and a 3.58% home run rate that both rank sixth in the split, and they are 11% better than average by collective WRC+ against righties. The team strikes out at a 22.3% rate in the split, there are points on the table for Nola to claim, but he is not quite as safe as a start against the Marlins may have suggested in years past. Alcantara, meanwhile, will be facing a Phillies team that is also good against righties. Philadelphia’s active roster ranks third with a .183 ISO and second with a 3.78% home run rate in the split, and their run creation mark sits 6% above average. There are strikeouts in the Phillies lineup as well, their 23.3% rate against righties is 23rd in baseball and is a mark that Alcantara can exploit if he avoids the team’s power. The Marlins righty has a 24.1% strikeout rate over 83.2 innings in 12 starts this season, he has pitched to a 3.52 xFIP and a sparkling 1.61 ERA while limiting home runs to just 1.25% on a 33.6% hard-hit percentage with a 4.2% barrel rate. Alcantara is an underrated ace who is not drawing the popularity he deserves, even at a slate-high price of $11,300 on FanDuel. At $10,200 on DraftKings, he is projected for around 15% popularity, which is three times his blue site projection but probably still not enough of the excellent Marlins righty.
The Cubs offense ranks around the middle of the league against righties. Chicago has a 17th-ranked .149 ISO and a 15th-ranked 21.8% strikeout rate in the split, their 2.60% home run rate is their low mark sitting in 20th while their 102 WRC+ ranks them 17th for run creation against righties. Between the targetable strikeout rate and the lack of major run creation or power acumen, the numbers suggest that San Diego starter Yu Darvish is in for a strong opportunity tonight. Darvish has been limited this season with just a 20.1% strikeout rate over his 67.1 innings, but he is inducing an 11.2% swinging-strike rate and he was at a 29.2% overall strikeout rate across 166.1 innings just last year. The righty has pitched to a 4.11 xFIP and a 3.61 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a 5.6% walk rate this season, he has been good despite the downturn in his strikeout numbers, partly by limiting premium power to just a 1.87% home run rate on a 7.2% barrel rate. Darvish checks in at a fair mid-range price of just $8,400 on the DraftKings slate, where he is drawing only 10% popularity. For $9,700 on FanDuel, Darvish is pulling in less than 5% popularity in what should be a quality matchup, there is upside in this situation for the veteran righty.
The value arm of the day appears to be Cincinnati’s Mike Minor, who is drawing nearly 30% popularity at his $4,700 price on the DraftKings slate and even a bit of attention at 6.6% for $6,700 on FanDuel. Minor has completed just 8.1 innings in two starts this season and he has not thrown 90 pitches yet, but at the low cost there is a reasonable consideration for upside, provided the salary savings is spent on the correct bat combinations. Minor has a 21.1% strikeout rate in the tiny sample, pitching to a 5.10 xFIP and an 8.64 ERA with a ridiculous 13.16% home run rate, he allowed five home runs to 38 hitters so far, an outrageously bad outcome. Minor pitched to a 5.05 ERA and a 4.38 xERA over 158.2 innings with a 21.1% strikeout rate last season, allowing a 3.9% home run rate. If he harnesses things even to that degree tonight, he could pay off the minor salary requirement in a quality matchup. The Diamondbacks roster is 22nd in baseball with a 23.4% strikeout rate against lefties this season, and they have lacked power with a .123 ISO and a 2.32% home run rate in the split. Arizona has created runs 13% worse than average, the 28th ranked out of the game’s 30 teams. This is a good spot for most lefties, but there are gigantic question marks on Minor in this spot given the current year output so far, this may be a spot where the field is getting carried away with dollar signs flashing in their eyes, rather than paying attention to the actual pitcher in the matchup, despite the value, undercutting the field on Minor may be the stronger approach.
Over 44.2 innings in seven starts and some bullpen work, Astros righty Cristian Javier has a 30.4% strikeout rate with an 8.7% walk percentage and a 3.90 xFIP. The righty has pitched to a 3.22 ERA and he has induced a 12.4% swinging-strike rate, but he has compiled just a 24.7% CSW%, leaving room for growth. Javier has allowed a 38% hard-hit percentage but an average exit velocity of 90 mph and a 9.3% barrel rate this season, amounting to a 2.13% home run rate. The righty costs just $8,800 on the blue site and $9,600 on DraftKings, and he will be owned under 10% on both sites tonight. He will be taking on a Rangers active roster that may be coming to life slowly, but still sits 24th in baseball with a 24.3% strikeout rate against righties while creating runs 7% below average, the 22nd-ranked mark in the split. Texas has a .146 ISO that sits 19th, but their 3.28% home run rate against righties jumps to 10th. If he can avoid the long ball, Javier stands a good chance to rack up strikeouts in this start, but the public is not deploying him frequently, the young Houston righty looks like one of the top pitching plays of the day in general, and he comes at positive leverage on both sites, he is a good target for additional shares beyond the field for MLB DFS tournaments.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox leap to nearly the top of a loaded power index this afternoon, with the team facing Tigers starter Rony Garcia on the road in Detroit. Garcia has thrown 28 innings this season, making three starts and a number of bullpen appearances. The righty has a 30% strikeout rate and a 6.4% walk rate with a 3.14 xFIP thus far, he has been sneakily good to start the year. In his three starts, Garcia has a 3.37 xFIP with a 1.29 WHIP but a 6.43 ERA and a 5.08% home run rate, while striking out 27.1% and walking 6.8%. Regardless of role, Garcia has a ghastly 57.1% hard-hit percentage with an 18.6% barrel rate, amounting to a 4.55% home run rate that is definitely lower than it should be, all of that premium contact will turn into run creation and home runs soon enough. The White Sox have disappointed in extreme ways this season, the team’s active roster has just a .102 ISO and a 1.75% home run rate that both rank 29th against righties and they have created runs 28% worse than average in the split, also the 29th-ranked mark on the board. The team has been good at avoiding strikeouts and putting the ball in play however, they have a 20.5% strikeout rate that sits eighth in the game. Between the team’s contact acumen and the ridiculous contact that the starter allows, this could be a good day for an under-owned White Sox stack. The top part of the lineup is the focus, A.J. Pollock is slashing just .247/.277/.373 with three home runs while creating runs 16% worse than average, but he belongs in White Sox stacks in this matchup. Andrew Vaughn slots into the two spot for a cheap price. He has six home runs in 168 plate appearances and a 46.8% hard-hit percentage this year. Luis Robert and Jose Abreu are the two healthy stars in the middle of the team’s lineup, Robert has six home runs and 11 stolen bases while creating runs 5% better than average. Abreu has seven home runs, but he has just a .156 ISO despite a 54.7% hard-hit percentage. Jake Burger and third baseman Yoan Moncada follow in the projected lineup while struggling catcher Yasmani Grandal is likely to sit once again with an injury. Grandal will be replaced by Seby Zavala who hit five home runs with a .194 ISO in 104 plate appearances last season. The bottom of the lineup rounds out with Leury Garcia and Danny Mendick, who are both playable for limited correlated scoring potential, with Mendick doing a better job of it so far this season. In his 74 plate appearances, Mendick is slashing .290/.329/.464 while creating runs 27% better than average.
Toronto Blue Jays
The power-packed Blue Jays were a fixture in this space in great matchups all weekend and little changes about that in a game against Baltimore starter Kyle Bradish. The team is once again pulling titanic power marks in the home run model, and they look like excellent targets as either one-offs or as full stacks. Bradish has a respectable 24% strikeout rate over his 37.2 innings, but he has allowed a 43.5% hard-hit percentage and a 12% barrel rate that have yielded 92.3 mph of exit velocity on average. That has amounted to a massive 5.99% home run rate to this point in his career, Bradish is targetable for home run and run creation upside, he has a 3.96 xFIP but a 6.45 ERA this season. The Blue Jays roster is projecting for power from top to bottom, with George Springer, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all looking strong from atop the lineup. The team will be popular, all three of those key hitters are projected for roughly 15% ownership on DraftKings and 25% on FanDuel. On the blue site, they are joined in that tier of popularity by underpriced $2,700 Teoscar Hernandez, but the outfielder is the first differentiation point for his $5,000 salary on DraftKings. At that price, Hernandez is pulling in less than 10% popularity. He has not been good over 145 plate appearances while dealing with injuries this season, but Hernandez is a proven bat who hit 32 home runs in 595 opportunities last year, he should be more popular on this MLB DFS slate. Santiago Espinal, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Matt Chapman are all projected for single-digit DraftKings ownership, with only Chapman cracking the 10% mark on FanDuel. Rookie Gabriel Moreno is one of baseball’s top prospects, and he may be available as a cheap catcher option tonight. If Moreno plays, he should be in DraftKings lineups at just $2,200, he is playable on FanDuel for the minimum and no popularity. Cavan Biggio is slashing just .203/.365/.288 with one stolen base and no home runs over 74 plate appearances. If he continues to get on base at a .356 clip, he will eventually create value as a wraparound play.
San Diego Padres
The Padres are not a favored team in this space, and they deserve only tepid interest once again, but they rank in the upper third of the Top Stacks Tool for both sites tonight in a matchup against Justin Steele, who has a 4.04 xFIP and a 4.79 ERA in his 47 innings over 11 starts this season. Steele has a 22.3% strikeout rate, and he has walked 12.3% with a 1.55 WHIP while inducing just an 8.9% swinging-strike rate, he is a targetable left-handed starter in terms of run creation, but he has actually been quite good at limiting premium contact and home run power, Steele has allowed just a 0.95% home run rate and a 1.4% barrel rate this season. The Padres roster features a few quality right-handed bats and most of them come cheap on both sites. Leadoff man Jurickson Profar started the season hot but is currently sitting at .248/.342/.416 with seven home runs and four stolen bases, but he has created runs 19% better than average and costs just $3,700 on both sites. Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado follow Profar from dramatically different levels of quality. Cronenworth has been 4% below average creating runs while Machado lands 60% above average in a fantastic season that is going to waste in San Diego. Machado is the key hitter in this lineup, he is projected for around 15% popularity on both sites, and he deserves it. First baseman Luke Voit has been featured in this space numerous times for how overrated he is, but at just $3,500 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel with single-digit popularity, there is a touch of potential. Part of the problem for Voit will be figuring out how to turn his mere 39.6% hard-hit percentage and Steele’s 34.1% hard-hit percentage and excellent barrel rate into power. Voit is followed by veteran Eric Hosmer, Ha-Seong Kim, Austin Nola, Trent Grisham and Jose Azocar an underwhelming group of five if there ever was one. Only Hosmer has created runs above average this season, with a 111 WRC+ and the group has an average ISO below .150. The Padres rate well on the stacks board and Steele seems like a target, but his ability to sap power and the team’s overall lack of quality has this one landing with a bit of a thud.
Atlanta Braves
A team that seems very unlikely to disappoint tonight is Atlanta. They will be very popular, and they will demand a focus on differentiation both in stacks and in full lineup combinations, but the team has an excellent opportunity for power and run creation this evening on a hot hitter-friendly night in Washington D.C. against Josiah Gray. The Nationals righty has been taking his lumps at the major league level, pitching to a 4.40 xFIP and a 5.26% home run rate over his 62.1 innings this year. Gray has a 25.9% strikeout rate, and he may find a solid handful of swing-and-miss in the aggressive Atlanta lineup, but the power that he allows is undeniably appealing. Plus, his 10.9% walk rate and 1.32 WHIP suggest there will be plenty of runners on base if the Braves manage to keep strikeouts within reason.
At 21.6% on DraftKings and 26.2% on FanDuel, a large portion of the team’s ownership projection belongs to superstar leadoff man Ronald Acuna Jr. who leads the slate with a massive home run potential mark this evening. Acuna has hit six long balls in 145 plate appearances since returning to the Braves lineup. The outstanding outfielder is slashing .311/.414/.529 with a .218 ISO and 11 stolen bases while creating runs 60% better than average, he is simply one of baseball’s very best players. Acuna can be rostered even at the popularity; he is one of the hitters who is most likely to be involved in scoring tonight.
Dansby Swanson has been hitting second for the Braves for a few weeks, he is slashing .290/.355/.448 with seven home runs and nine stolen bases while creating runs 25% better than average, delivering on his full potential. The shortstop has a 43.9% hard-hit percentage and an 11% barrel rate, but he is one of Atlanta’s free swingers with a 27.3% strikeout rate. Swanson is a favorite in this space, he was a frequent callout as a late lineup target earlier in the season and he remains under-owned even hitting second. At $5,300 on DraftKings, Swanson is pulling in only 10% ownership at a premium position, he should be more popular. On FanDuel, he will be owned at a mid-teens level that is similar to much of the Braves lineup.
Third baseman Austin Riley has mashed his way to 16 home runs in 263 plate appearances this season. The excellent power hitter has a 55.2% hard-hit percentage with a 17% barrel rate while slashing .259/.327/.523 and creating runs 33% better than average. Riley is an unheralded star in the middle of this lineup who has been responsible for keeping the Braves run creation engine rolling along for much of the season, he is too cheap and not popular enough even at his relatively high marks.
Matt Olson is projected to hit fifth tonight. The slugging first baseman has a 47% hard-hit percentage with a 10.7% barrel rate but he has hit just eight home runs over his 270 plate appearances. Olson is slashing .251/.356/.459 with a .208 ISO and he has created runs 25% better than average, despite any perceived struggles he has been highly involved in the offense and he is underpriced for his talent. Olson belongs in many Braves stacks tonight and has an excellent shot at a home run against this pitcher.
Switch-hitting second base star Ozzie Albies has disappointed so far this season. Albies has created runs 9% worse than average while slashing just .246/.288/.408 with a .163 ISO. Albies has eight home runs and three stolen bases, with the power coming on just a 26.6% hard-hit percentage and a 5.5% barrel rate. The second baseman hit 30 home runs and stole 20 bases just last season. Albies is too cheap and too unpopular on this slate.
Marcell Ozuna has a 45.5% hard-hit percentage and a 13.1% barrel rate that amount to 10 home runs to this point in the season. Ozuna costs just $4,300 on DraftKings, where he is projected for under 10% popularity, he checks in at a $2,900 price with 12.4% of the field utilizing him at the odd discount on FanDuel. Ozuna strikes out at a 22.4% rate, one of the lower marks in the Braves projected lineup, he is slashing .223/.2645/.398 and creating runs 20% worse than average, making him another disappointing player in this lineup, for several reasons. Ozuna can be mixed and matched in Braves stacks, his power even plays as a low-cost one-off if needed.
The Braves have two quality catchers on their roster, William Contreras is projected to play tonight, he can be included enthusiastically in stacks on both sites. The backstop is slashing .292/.376/.674 with nine home runs and a 49.2% hard-hit percentage over his 101 plate appearances this season. Contreras has a team-leading 19.7% barrel rate in the small sample; on a team with Acuna, Olson, Duvall and other obliterators of baseballs, that is no small feat.
Outfielder Adam Duvall has scuffled to just a .206/.261/.353 triple-slash but he has any-given-slate upside from day to day, particularly against a pitcher who yields home runs to far less proven power hitters. Duvall is followed in the lineup by Michael Harris II who comes in slashing .296/.321/.426 while creating runs 6% better than average over his first 56 plate appearances. Harris remains cheap and he is projected for low single-digit ownership. He makes for an excellent wraparound play in Braves stacks, and he can offset price and popularity concerns.
Home Run Prediction Today: Matt Olson — Atlanta Braves
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