The Saturday slates split very differently from site to site today, with FanDuel kicking off a 10-game main slate at 4:05 ET while DraftKings is opting for a five-game contest starting at 7:15 ET, with only the Dodgers vs Giants and Cubs vs Yankees games appearing on both sites. DraftKings is running a large pool of contests with high payouts akin to a main slate in the 4 pm window as well, which is helpful for discussing the slate in full and creates additional opportunities for action for gamers on the two-pitcher site. The average run total on the slate is 8.5 with only the matchup between the Brewers and Nationals and the game between the Orioles and Royals landing at 9.5. There are several spots with very lopsided spreads, leading to a handful of teams that sit at higher implied team totals than much of the field. The Phillies, Brewers, Blue Jays, Braves, Astros, and Yankees are all carrying implied totals above five runs this evening. With a solid handful of targetable stacking opportunities and only a few premium pitchers on the board, the slate should be interesting for varying combinations and attempting to find unique angles into the night’s action. An early start has us in short-form mode for today’s article which will cover both main slates.
Best MLB DFS Tournament Strategy & Picks Today
Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 3.34
Atlanta Braves: Matt Olson — 8.50
Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 7.77
Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts — 9.25
Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 8.75
Cleveland Guardians: Jose Ramirez — 8.20
Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 4.76
Detroit Tigers: Javier Baez — 5.53
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 10.06
Kansas City Royals: Andrew Benintendi — 7.55
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 10.26
Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Smith — 5.82
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 4.27
New York Mets: Francisco Lindor — 5.34
New York Yankees: Josh Donaldson — 11.80
Oakland Athletics: Ramon Laureano — 9.06
Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 13.42
Pittsburgh Pirates: Jack Suwinski — 4.69
San Diego Padres: Brent Rooker — 7.97
San Francisco Giants: Evan Longoria — 6.13
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez — 8.74
Toronto Blue Jays: Bo Bichette — 11.91
Washington Nationals: Nelson Cruz — 9.80
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
The afternoon and evening main slates do not appear to have any major weather concerns tonight.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The main slate pitching on FanDuel is far deeper than on DraftKings, with options including Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Frankie Montas, Eric Lauer, and Charlie Morton who lands in a great matchup. Options that appear on both main slates include Jordan Montgomery and Clayton Kershaw, while the DraftKings only slate adds Carlos Carrasco and George Kirby to the list of targetable starters. There are a few middling options for value on both sites, but none that stand out as particularly strong plays against the field.
Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler checks in with a 28.3% strikeout rate and a 3.03 xFIP with a 3.14 ERA over his first 57.1 innings in 10 starts this season. Wheeler has been very good at keeping the ball in the yard this year, allowing just a 0.84% home run rate on a 32.7% hard-hit percentage with a 4.7% barrel rate. Wheeler is facing a frisky Diamondbacks lineup that has hit right-handed pitching for power so far this season, but one that also features significant strikeout upside in the split, he should have an excellent opportunity to pitch deep into the game while chasing strikeouts, a win, and a quality start bonus.
Right-handed Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman is another leading option on this slate. Gausman has made 11 starts and thrown 64.2 excellent innings this season, pitching to a 2.59 xFIP with a 1.16 WHIP and a 2.78 ERA. Gausman has been as good as Wheeler at limiting home runs with just a 0.75% rate, but his have come on a 40% hard-hit percentage with a 5.9% barrel rate. Gausman induces a whopping 16.3% swinging-strike rate, he has phenomenal upside for strikeouts and he typically stays very clean for issuing free passes, the righty has just a 2.6% walk rate this season. Gausman stands out for a big projection against a weak Tigers lineup that ranks last in ISO, home run rate, and WRC+ against righties this season while also striking out at a 25th-ranked 24.6% in the split.
Brewers lefty Eric Lauer will be challenged to find his strikeouts in a matchup against the stingy Nationals lineup, but it is somewhat unlikely that he will be aggressively challenged for runs or sequencing by the weak Washington roster. The Nationals have a sterling 16.8% strikeout rate to rank second in baseball against lefties, but they have been one percent worse than average creating runs in the split and they have a 28th-ranked 1.24% home run rate with a .095 ISO that sits 29th in the split this season. Lauer, meanwhile, has an outstanding 27.7% strikeout rate with a 3.55 xFIP and a 2.38 ERA this season. He has yielded a 3.40% home run rate on a bloated 42.4% hard-hit percentage and a 9.9% barrel rate, but he has largely overcome the bad premium contact numbers this season and he looks like a strong selection from the middle of the board on the FanDuel main slate and DraftKings early slate.
The Braves will have right-handed veteran Charlie Morton on the mound to battle the Pirates, Morton has a 22% strikeout rate over 54.1 innings this season but he has pitched to just a 4.53 xFIP with a 5.63 ERA. The scuffling righty has allowed a 41.9% hard-hit percentage and a 7.5% barrel rate this year, but just a 2.85% home run rate, against these Pirates he should have a great opportunity to post a monster score for his cheap price from site to site. Morton is negatively leveraged but he makes for a worthwhile consideration on both sites.
Clayton Kershaw is making his return from injury against a Giants team that pounds on left-handed pitching. San Francisco’s active roster has a .197 ISO and a 3.77% home run rate that both rank fourth in the split. The team’s compiled 120WRC+ against lefties is also fourth-ranked, and the team strikes out at a 13th-ranked 20.8% rate in the split. Kershaw is a costly option at above $10,000 from site to site, but he is worth the money. The veteran lefty has a 29.4% strikeout rate and a 2.51 xFIP over his 30 innings in five starts this season. The southpaw has allowed just a 1.83% home run rate and a 32.9% hard-hit percentage, but he will be challenged by the lineup and may be slightly limited in his return from injury, this is a starter that the team does not like to push when unnecessary.
The Mets will have Carlos Carrasco on the mound to face the free-swinging Angels lineup tonight, which is pushing the strikeout and MLB DFS point-scoring upside for the righty tonight. Carrasco has a 23.1% strikeout rate and a 3.40 xFIP over his 64 innings, providing a steady presence in the tumultuous rotation for New York. The righty has induced a 13% swinging-strike rate while yielding just a 1.14% home run rate on 36.8% hard-hit and a 5.9% barrel rate. Carrasco is at a fair price on both sites, he ranks atop the DraftKings board by probability and looks to be under-owned for his chances of turning in a relevant start.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays lead the board on FanDuel again this afternoon. The team is facing Detroit’s Beau Brieske in a matchup that looks almost as good as the launching pad the Blue Jays started on yesterday. Brieske has a 4.92 xFIP with a 4.93 ERA and a massive 6.74% home run rate this season. The righty has allowed a 41.8% hard-hit percentage and a ridiculous 14.2% barrel rate, opposing hitters tend to abuse this pitcher. Toronto bats should be targeted on all sites in all formats. Blue Jays to focus on include George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, and Alejandro Kirk from one through five. All of those options are popular and pricey from site to site, but they are key hitters who can be combined with later lineup options like Santiago Espinal, Matt Chapman, and Raimel Tapia. The Blue Jays have the second-highest stack score for the afternoon slates and they land atop the probability board, though they are negatively leveraged.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers also land near the top of the board on both sites for the afternoon slates. The team has the highest stack score on the FanDuel main slate and the DraftKings early slate. They land at negative leverage on both sites, but they seem worth targeting across the industry. Milwaukee is facing left-handed punching bag Patrick Corbin, who has a 6.71 ERA and a 4.13 xFIP with just an 18.5% strikeout rate this season. Corbin has allowed a 44.7% hard-hit percentage and a 9.2% barrel rate but he has somehow gotten away with it to the tune of just a 2.45% home run rate, which will not last. The Brewers are good against lefties, the team’s playable targets include Christian Yelich, who is leading off once again, despite slashing just .230/.321/.364 with a .134 ISO and a WRC+ that sits five percent below average. Yelich seemed to be finding his stroke in recent weeks, but the numbers have yet to catch up in the triple-slash or run creation departments. The outfielder is still stinging the ball regularly, he has a 50.3% hard-hit percentage and an 11.3% barrel rate that rival his MVP season. Willy Adames, Andrew McCutchen, and Hunter Renfroe are all solid options from the middle of the lineup, Renfroe tends to tattoo left-handed pitching, he has 10 home runs overall this season and he will be owned in the single-digits against a bad lefty. Luis Urias and Rowdy Tellez slot into relevant positions in the lineup and they should be included in stacks for their power-hitting upside while the bottom-third of the lineup including Victor Caratini, Lorenzo Cain, and Mark Mathias are just mix-and-match options.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers, fortunately, appear on both main slates and rank highly while pulling in fair ownership with a possible hint of leverage. The team makes for an excellent target even if they cross the border into negative leverage land, they are one of baseball’s best offenses and they are facing a limited starting pitcher in lefty Sammy Long, who has thrown 15.1 innings in his three starts this season. Long has just a 16.4% strikeout rate and a 5.08 xFIP but a 2.35 ERA and just a 1.64% home run rate that defy expectations. He has been good at avoiding quality contact, he has allowed a 38.6% hard-hit percentage but hitters have not barreled a ball against him yet this season. The Dodgers projected lineup is playable from top to bottom, as it is on most nights.
Superstar outfielder Mookie Betts is having an outstanding season to date. Betts is slahing .284/.360/.550 with 16 home runs, six stolen bases, a .266 ISO and a WRC+ that sits 56% above average. The outstanding leadoff man gets on base with extreme regularity, adding correlated scoring potential to his individual upside. Betts has a 47.3% hard-hit percentage and strikes out just 16.3% of the time, he is excellent at single-digit ownership at any price.
Freddie Freeman has hit just four home runs, but he is slashing .289/.369/.443 and creating runs 30% better than average to this point in the season. The All-Star has a 43.5% hard-hit percentage with just a 15% strikeout rate, he is excellent at putting the ball in play with power. Freeman is a regular contributor in the Dodgers lineup, he belongs in stacks at under 10% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Shortstop Trea Turner strikes out just 18.7% of the time and has a 48.1% hard-hit rate to lead the projected lineup. Turner is slashing .301/.356/.473 while creating runs 33% better than average. He has added 13 stolen bases to his fantasy scoring tally so far this season, when he is on base he can be relied upon to add points by running, making him an excellent correlated scoring option in the middle of the lineup.
Max Muncy returned to the lineup at significant popularity because of a deeply discounted price on FanDuel yesterday, the site has responded by increasing his cost from $2,800 to $2,900, he will be very popular once again. The slugger is scuffling this season, he has a .156/.328/.291 triple-slash while creating runs 12% worse than average but we have a significant track record with the multi-positional asset on the blue site. Oddly, Muncy is eligible only at shortstop on DraftKings today, creating a decision point between him and Trea Turner.
Catcher Will Smith is playable on both sites, he is often under-owned where the position is not required. Smith has hit seven home runs while slashing .236/.342/.408 with a .172 ISO this season. Smith has a 45.2% hard-hit rate with a 9.5% barrel rate, he is an excellent bat at the catcher position. Smith strikes out at just a 17.4% rate and he walks 13.6% of the time, involving him in scoring with regularity.
Justin Turner lands in the sixth spot in the batting order most nights. Turner is another long-proven veteran who has had difficulty getting going this year, he is slashing just .216/.287/.357 with four home runs while creating runs 16% worse than average this season, which is why the third baseman’s price is just $4,000 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel, he is a good option at low popularity.
From the left side of the plate, outfielder Cody Bellinger checks in with a 40.8% hard-hit percentage and a 9.2% barrel rate with seven home runs, but he is slashing just .206/.280/.397 this season. Bellinger has a .191 ISO and he has created runs seven percent worse than average to this point, but there is any-given-slate upside in the slugger every night.
Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux are embarrassingly good hitters to have in the eighth and ninth spots in a lineup. Taylor is a multi-position star who is slashing .253/.332/.446 with six home runs and a .194 ISO while creating runs 18% better than average this season. Lux also fills multiple positions for a cheap price and low ownership, he is slashing .285/.367/.376 while creating runs 17% better than average, he is a great option from the nine spot as a wraparound, but his power has yet to arrive this year. Lux has hit just two home runs and he has a .091 ISO, he is more of a correlated scoring play than an individual contributor on this slate.
Home Run Prediction Today: Teoscar Hernandez — Toronto Blue Jays
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