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MLB DFS Tournament Picks & Home Runs 5/26

Terry McBride

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Thursday’s main slates split differently from site to site, with FanDuel getting a head-start once again in order to include the Yankees vs Rays game on a 10-game slate starting at 6:40 ET, while DraftKings leaves that one off the board and picks up at 7:05 ET with a nine-game affair. The board in Vegas shows that the bookmakers are expecting a fairly low-scoring night filled with tightly contested ballgames, finding the right combination of bats and arms is a challenge, with several of the top pitchers on the board facing some of the better available lineups. The obvious stacking opportunities against weak starters are all drawing significant ownership, this is a slate where leverage will be a critical factor for tournament success. There are several under-owned options on the mound at a variety of prices, taking chances on those pitchers while rostering the popular key bats is one of several viable approaches to lineup building for MLB DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

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Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions

Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 4.78

Atlanta Braves: Matt Olson — 12.39

Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts — 5.66

Chicago White Sox: A.J. Pollock — 10.82

Cleveland Guardians: Franmil Reyes — 15.56

Colorado Rockies: Randal Grichuk — 11.33

Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 8.28

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana 3.92

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout — 14.07

Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 8.29

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 5.81

Minnesota Twins: Gary Sanchez — 6.70

New York Yankees: Miguel Andjuar — 7.37

Oakland Athletics: Sean Murphy — 5.92

Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos — 7.68

St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 8.07

Tampa Bay Rays: Harold Ramirez — 7.19

Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 6.46

Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 7.16

Washington Nationals: Keibert Ruiz — 5.28

Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

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MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment

Thursday has more threatening weather on the horizon for MLB DFS gamers. The Guardians vs Tigers and the Phillies vs Braves games are both looking at fairly significant threats of in-game showers and potential delays or even postponement. Both situations warrant monitoring as lock approaches, FanDuel gamers will have to make decisions earlier but there will be time to pivot post-lock, with both games starting at 7:10 ET. There is a similar threat of rain slightly later in the evening for the Red Sox vs White Sox game in Chicago at 8:10 ET, with threatening radar that is another game that should be watched in the probability of postponement column in Awesemo’s projections. The game in St. Louis between the Brewers and Cardinals may seem light rain, but it seems like the most likely of the four to play cleanly as things currently stand.

MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Thursday offers a rich pitching slate, with FanDuel gamers picking up a bonus option in New York’s Nestor Cortes, the mystifying lefty with a 30% strikeout rate over more than 130 innings since the start of last season. Cortes joins a cohort of pitchers that features options from a variety of price and experience tiers. Proven ace Aaron Nola is at a very low-for-him price in a tough matchup against the Braves, but one that could yield significant power upside, and righty Kyle Wright will answer back for the Braves at low ownership. Some of the most targetable teams in baseball are offering up excellent opportunities for less popular starters like German Marquez, who will be a strong option in a start against the Nationals, and Martin Perez, who is taking on the Athletics’ feeble attempt to impersonate a Major League lineup. Oakland will answer back with one of their few good players on the mound in the form of righty Frankie Montas, who looks like a strong option as well. Superstar Shohei Ohtani has been better on the mound than at the plate this season, he is facing a solid Blue Jays lineup in an interesting matchup at a targetable price for the talent. The slate also includes young standout lefty Tarik Skubal and old wise righty Adam Wainwright, both of whom could be excellent plays at low ownership with the weather threatening their games. Skubal has excellent strikeout upside but he will be challenged by the low-strikeout Guardians lineup, while Wainwright could slip through the cracks against the division-rival Brewers. On the other side of that game, lefty Eric Lauer will be hard-pressed to continue his excellent run against a Cardinals lineup that is brutal on left-handed pitching. Lauer has been fantastic this year, and he is worthy of consideration at positive leverage, even against this opponent, but it is a firm both-sides situation for MLB DFS lineups. There are several value-tier options on the board as well, including Konnor Pilkington, who will be dueling with Skubal and facing the low-end Tigers lineup for just $4,000 on DraftKings as the most popular discount option, while washed-up veteran lefty Patrick Corbin is likely to get tattooed by the Rockies for just $5,900. Dallas Keuchel is unlikely to find the necessary strikeouts to see real value at his $5,200 price, but he may suppress the Red Sox lineup enough to render them a poor choice at the plate.

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On talent and proven stability, even in a tough spot against the Braves, righty ace Aaron Nola stands alone on this slate. Nola ranks atop the board on both sites when sorting by pitchers’ probability of being a top-two option on DraftKings or the best overall starter on FanDuel. However, Nola is projected to be extremely popular and negatively leveraged on both sites, which makes it a challenge to roster him at the same level as the public when there are other strong options available in better matchups and stronger leverage situations. Nola should be included in lineups on both sites, he has an excellent chance of finding a good number of strikeouts against a Braves active roster that has a 26.4% strikeout rate in the split against righties this season, the worst rate in the league. Atlanta ranks sixth-best with a .168 ISO against righties, while their 3.53% home run rate this season sits fourth on the splits board. The team has only managed to create runs at league average against righties this season, if Nola can avoid the home run mistakes he has a good chance of reaching a strong MLB DFS score. The righty has a 30.9% strikeout rate with a 2.68 xFIP and a 0.99 WHIP over his first 52.1 innings in nine starts this season. Nola has allowed a bit of additional premium contact this season, his home run rate is up from 3.47% over 180.2 innings last year to 4.35% so far this season. His hard-hit rate has actually dropped from a solid 37.2% to a good 36.4% but his barrel rate has spiked from 7.1% to 9.3%, which is likely just small sample happenstance at this early point in the season. Nola is one of the league’s best right-handed pitchers, he is always worthy of consideration, but he will e owned by nearly 30% of the field for his low $8,900 price tag on FanDuel and 40% of the public is getting to him for $9,200 on DraftKings. The pitcher is worthy of ownership that approaches those levels on both sites, it would not be a mistake to utilize him at the same numbers as the field, he is on the list of pitchers who are no-brainers against any opponent when they are priced down for seemingly no reason, but the popularity considerations are a major factor on this slate. Drawing shares from Nola to dedicate to positively leveraged plays while remaining highly invested in the Phillies’ ace is most likely the right approach.

One of the interesting options for positive leverage can be found on the other side of the same game. Atlanta’s Kyle Wright has been delivering on his potential since the start of this season. As has been covered in this space previously, Wright debuted all the way back in 2018 at only 22 years old, but he has seen only cups of coffee at the Major League level, only surpassing the 100 innings pitched mark two starts ago, in 2022, at age 26. Wright is fully developed and he has landed on an effective pitch mix, he has a 29.5% strikeout rate over his first 47 innings in eight starts this season while pitching to a 2.96 xFIP and a 1.09 WHIP. The emerging righty has induced a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and he has a 31.6% CSW%, while limiting hard hits to just 34.8% and allowing merely a 1.05% home run rate. Wright has been outstanding to this point in the season, he will be facing a tough Phillies lineup tonight, but one that is similar to his own offense in that they are more power-oriented in the split. Philadelphia has created runs better than the Braves, they sit five percent above average against righties and they have a seventh-ranked 3.22% home run rate with a 10th-ranked .159 ISO while striking out at a 23.5% clip that sits 22nd. Wright has the talent to pitch through this lineup three times while reaching win and quality start bonuses if his team delivers against Nola. He costs $9,500 on the FanDuel slate and $9,900 on DraftKings, casting him down to single-digit ownership that makes him the best leverage and upside target on the mound on either site. Wright should be owned much more aggressively than the field is utilizing him in this situation, he has the potential to be a major piece of the puzzle for MLB DFS tournaments tonight.

Athletics righty Frankie Montas is drawing major popularity on both sites, making him the third-most negatively leveraged option behind Nola and Ohtani. Montas is facing a Rangers active roster that has been quietly good against lefties, but miserable against right-handed pitching this year, which boosts his scoring potential. The Rangers rank 23rd in the split with a .125 ISO, though their 14th-ranked 2.84% home run rate is their best attribute, so they flash minor power from time to time in the split. The team has created runs 14% below average so far this season by collective WRC+, the 27th-ranked of baseball’s 30 teams. They also sit 25th with a 24.3% strikeout rate in the split against righties, which will play well for a pitcher who has a solid 27.4% strikeout rate over his first 50.2 innings in nine starts this season. Montas has pitched to a 2.96 xFIP with a 1.01 WHIP while inducing a 13.6% swinging-strike rate this season. He has been around average for contact so far, the righty has allowed a 38.6% hard-hit rate with a 7.6% barrel rate that has translated to a 2.99% home run rate. The home run mark is up slightly from his 2.57% last season, but the hard-hit percentage and barrel rate are both actually improvements from the 42.2% and 8.7% marks he posted in those categories last year, meaning the home runs could be the product of ballparks or mere happenstance. Montas has a 3.55 ERA, supporting the notion that he has gotten slightly unlucky for power so far this year even though he has not yielded many home runs in general. The Athletics’ ace was good last season, he had a nearly matching swinging-strike rate and a slightly lower 26.6% strikeout rate, he should be a good bet for a high strikeout total against this Rangers club. Montas is over-owned on both sites, he should be rostered, but a minor undercut to the field’s 25.1% on FanDuel and 37% on DraftKings helps to spread out shares.

The Guardians have not been good for power or run creation against left-handed pitching this season, but their active roster sits eighth in baseball with just a 19.7% strikeout rate in the split. The team’s 2.08% home run rate sits 19th and they rank in the bottom third of the league with a .109 ISO and a WRC+ of just 85. All of which is a lead-in to saying that Tigers’ southpaw Tarik Skubal could be in a good situation but may be challenged to find his usual strikeout upside in this start. The lefty has been very good to start the season, pitching to a 28.4% strikeout rate and just a 4.5% walk rate while improving his concerning contact metrics from last year. Skubal yielded a 45.1% hard-hit percentage with a 13.9% barrel rate over 149.1 innings last year, this year he has allowed just a 39% hard-hit percentage with a  5.1% barrel rate, turning last season’s bloated 5.52% home run rate into an excellent 1.14% mark this season. Skubal has upped his swinging-strike rate from 11.4% to 12.1% while improving his CSW% and cutting his walks and WHIP, he is an improved pitcher with top-of-the-rotation stuff who is dramatically under-owned on this slate. Skubal is one of the top leverage targets on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, he can be rostered ahead of the field’s projected exposure, his high price tag is worth paying on both sites.

The game between the Brewers and Cardinals will be one to watch. The division rivalry game sees lefty Eric Lauer taking on righty Adam Wainwright with the two pitchers in fairly similar situations for MLB DFS contests. Wainwright has just a 19% strikeout rate on the season and he is inducing just a 5.8% swinging-strike rate but he has been excellent at limiting contact and he typically pitches well and deep into games, despite the lack of major strikeout upside. He will be taking on a good Brewers lineup that has a .172 ISO and a 108 WRC+ with a 3.25% home run rate against righties this season, all top-10 marks. The team strikes out at a 23.5% clip, the 22nd-best on the board, but Wainwright will need to work to get there with the absence of swing-and-miss stuff so far this season. Lauer, meanwhile, will be facing a Cardinals lineup that has simply annihilated left-handed pitching this year. St. Louis is baseball’s best team for power in the split, their massive .262 ISO and 5.31% home run rate are both by far the best marks in baseball against pitchers of either hand, while their 19.3% strikeout rate sits seventh in the split. The team has created runs at a ludicrous 72% better than average against lefties so far this season, again by far baseball’s best offense in any situation. To put that rate of run creation in perspective, the second-highest collective WRC+ against lefties is the excellent 131 (31% above average) posted by the Angels. Against righties, the best WRC+ in baseball is that same Angels team at 129. Essentially, the Cardinals against lefties is 40 percentage points better for run creation than one could hope to find with any other team in any other situation, which seems like it may be challenging even for a pitcher of Lauer’s recent skill. The lefty has an excellent 32.9% strikeout rate and a 2.65 xFIP with a 0.94 WHIP this season but he has allowed a 41.6% hard-hit percentage with a 9.9% barrel rate and a 4.27% home run rate, minor flaws in other situations but targetable power output for this team in this spot. Lauer is almost completely unowned at prices above $10,000 from site to site, he is worth an investment of pitching shares, but this is very much a both-sides situation, the Cardinals are absolutely under-owned on this slate as well. While Wainwright is a minor consideration who comes at reasonable probabilities, low costs, and positive leverage, he can be deployed confidently from site to site, Lauer looks like a potentially significant inflection point for the scoring direction of this slate.


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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are in a different situation from site to site tonight, despite landing as the most likely stack to succeed everywhere across the industry. The team is positively leveraged albeit at high ownership on the DraftKings slate, while they land as the most negatively leveraged stack on the FanDuel board. Los Angeles’ high prices on DraftKings are the likely explanation for their low relative ownership, the team is forecast to be nearly twice as popular on the FanDuel slate, and DraftKings gamers are certainly not worrying about the soft matchup against Humberto Castellanos. The limited righty has a 17.4% strikeout rate and a 4.44 xFIP with a 3.36% home run rate so far this season. Castellanos has not been awful, but he is not a threat to sit hitters down, and pitching to contact is a bad idea against a lethal lineup. The Dodgers boast one of baseball’s best end-to-end batting orders, they can typically be deployed from one through nine on any given slate. The team comes with ownership projections in the low teens from one through five, before dropping into the single digits for the bottom half of the projected lineup on the DraftKings slate, while the premium Dodgers bats are all pulling upwards of 25% ownership shares on FanDuel. Targeting the obvious names like Mookie BettsFreddie Freeman, and Trea Turner is easy, as is expecting more from underperforming Max Muncy in the middle of the Dodgers’ lineup. Getting to the lower-owned bats who offer salary offsets and multi-position upside in this lineup is key to utilizing them in unique configurations and combinations, which is paramount when rostering highly-owned plays. Catcher Will Smith is less popular than he should be on the FanDuel slate, where the position is not required, Smith is talented enough at the plate that he should not be considered a weak link like many backstops, combining him with one or two of Justin TurnerCody BellingerChris TaylorEdwin Rios, and Gavin Lux, depending on the final lineup configuration, is a good approach to stacking Dodgers on this slate. DraftKings gamers can fire away from top to bottom, on FanDuel, we will have to pick our spots with this team more carefully, but they remain very much in play despite the popularity and negative leverage.

Colorado Rockies

It is truly a weird season when the Rockies earn a featured spot while on the road, particularly in the same week when they unexpectedly added star bat Kris Bryant back to the injured list just two days after his long-awaited return, but that is what a matchup against this pitcher will do for a team’s outlook. The reanimated body of former Major League starter Patrick Corbin will be on the mound, for a little while, this evening. Corbin has been a major target over the past two seasons while seeming mostly lost on the mound. The lefty had a 4.29 xFIP and  1.47 WHIP with just a 19% strikeout rate over 171.2 innings last year while allowing a 4.93% home run rate. He has managed to keep the long ball in check this season, his home run rate sits at just 2.9% but Corbin has actually allowed a higher hard-hit percentage, climbing from 40.7% last season to a massive 47.6% this year, with a barrel rate that has jumped from 9.2% to 10.3%, the home runs are absolutely coming with that contact profile. The southpaw has just an 18.8% strikeout rate this season, he is inducing a 9.9% swinging-strike rate and pitching to a 4.45 xFIP with an inflated 9.7% walk rate. The Rockies, meanwhile, have at least not been bad against left-handed pitching this season, and the team features several excellent right-handed power bats. Colorado’s active roster has a fifth-ranked 18.9% strikeout rate in the split as well, so they will likely put the ball in play against this starter. The Rockies will need to find their home run upside, they have just a 1.99% home run rate in the split, but they have created runs 21% better than average against lefties this year, they are playable at positive leverage against Corbin. Despite the excellent matchup, most of the key Rockies bats are projected for single-digit ownership on this slate. Leadoff man Connor Joe has four home runs and a .365 on-base percentage, creating runs 12% better than average overall this season, he is a $5,300 DraftKings outfielder or first baseman with less than five percent of the field utilizing him, on FanDuel Joe is projected for about 10% ownership as the team’s most popular bat for only $3,200. Yonathan Daza offers an even lower ownership mark from lower prices, he is slashing .353/.404/.400 with a 119 WRC+ over his first 94 plate appearances and he is better against lefties. Daza is underappreciated by the public in this matchup. Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron have titanic power that they can unleash against any pitcher, but particularly against a lefty who will be throwing beach balls at them tonight. Grichuk has a 45.1% hard-hit percentage but just a 4.4% barrel rate with five home runs, but he has been sturdy for run creation and has a good triple-slash. Cron is one of baseball’s premium power hitters when he is rolling, the righty has hit 12 home runs and he is slashing .314/.357/.598 with a .284 ISO while creating runs 51% better than average, both righties should be included in Rockies stacks at well below 10% public popularity. Brendan Rodgers is another low-owned bat with potential in the middle of this lineup. Rodgers slots in at second base on DraftKings and he adds shortstop eligibility on FanDuel, making him a solid mix-and-match piece for less than three percent popularity and a low price tag. Lefty Ryan McMahon will probably see plate appearances against righty relief pitchers, he should not be skipped if he is in the Rockies’ lineup. Infielder Jose Iglesias is slashing .309/.366/.382 as a viable correlation piece, but he is not a traditionally strong MLB DFS contributor, nor are Garrett Hampson or Elias Diaz, who round out the projected lineup. The under-owned quality from one through six in the Rockies lineup makes for an excellent tournament target on this slate across the industry.

St. Louis Cardinals

Despite the matchup against Eric Lauer, the Cardinals’ output against lefties has been too good to ignore when they land at low ownership and positive leverage on both sites. As mentioned above, this lineup against a lefty is far and away baseball’s best situation for both power and run creation, and they do not strike out at a high rate in the split. The Cardinals are today’s featured stack because every hitter in the lineup falls at less than one percent popularity on both sites. This is a strong both sides opportunity for MLB DFS purposes, the pitcher should be rostered at low ownership as well, he has proven capable of handling even an elite lineup, but the better bet remains with the Cardinals’ bats.

Leadoff man Tommy Edman has been solid to start the season, he has flashed some power upside with four home runs and a 40.5% hard-hit rate so far, though his ISO is down to .158 after coming in hotter early on. Edman is slashing .278/.367/.437 and creating runs 34% better than average atop this lineup, the major improvement in his on-base acumen is extremely valuable, Edman has excellent speed and he has already stolen 10 bases in his 181 plate appearances this season, after totaling 30 last year. Edman is cheap at $3,600 on FanDuel, he costs $5,600 on DraftKings but he will be owned at the same roughly one percent on both sites. He offers multi-position eligibility in with positive leverage, making him an outstanding starting point for Cardinals stacks.

Edman is followed by the outstanding duo on either side of him in the infield, with Paul Goldschmidt hitting second and the team’s star third baseman following him. Goldschmidt is slashing .344/.411/.575 with a .231 ISO while creating runs 81% better than average this season. The first baseman has a 45.3% hard-hit rate and he strikes out just 18.8% of the time overall. Goldschmidt is an excellent option for power and run creation, the field is leaving his excellent bat alone, though he is technically the highest owned Cardinals hitter on either site at 1.1% on FanDuel.

Third baseman Nolan Arenado has hit nine home runs with a .256 ISO and a run creation mark 52% better than average so far in 2022. Arenado has a surprisingly limited 36.4% hard-hit rate with that excellent power output, so he could arguably have more to give at the plate as the season rolls along. The excellent hitter has a 14.9% strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate, he is an outstanding option for correlated and individual scoring on any given slate, against a lefty he is an outrageously good option when he comes at one percent popularity. Arenado is expensive at $5,800 on DraftKings, but not so much at only $3,700 on FanDuel, he should be rostered aggressively and enthusiastically on both sites tonight.

Hall of Famer Albert Pujols should have never left St. Louis in the first place, some players should just remain with one team (and be well compensated for it – attention Brian Cashman, CC: Aaron Judge) for their entire career. In his return to the Cardinals, which was expected to be a semi-limited swansong, Pujols is slashing .227/.329/.439 but he has a .212 ISO with four home runs in just 76 plate appearances, and he has created runs 24% better than average. Against a lefty who yields premium contact, there are worse bets than even an aged Pujols. The righty first baseman has a 44.2% hard-hit rate and just an 18.4% strikeout rate overall this season, though it is difficult to leave Goldschmidt on the table in favor of Pujols where two first basemen cannot be included in the same lineup.

Infielder Nolan Gorman hits from the left side of the plate and may sit tonight against same-handed pitching, but fellow rookie Juan Yepez should be in the lineup in this spot. Yepez has been excellent over 81 plate appearances, slashign .288/.358/.493 with a .205 ISO and four home runs while filling in admirably for injured Tyler O’Neill. Yepez is a prime target at a reasonable salary and no popularity in the middle of this lineup, he is even good at limiting strikeouts similar to his veteran teammates, Yepez has just a 21% strikeout rate so far this season, he can be expected to be productive and put the ball in play, which gives him scoring potential in this situation.

Various projected lineups diverge on the bottom end of this lineup, but this seems like the most likely spot to find righty Harrison Bader, who provides more upside with four home runs and 11 stolen bases on the year than does infielder Edmundo Sosa, who has a largely empty stat-line over 56 plate appearances. Bader is slashing .246/.300/.370 he is best utilized in small doses, but he can provide some quality from later in the lineup at very low costs and low ownership from site to site. Sosa would be a less appealing option in this spot, but he does come very cheap. The infielder is creating runs 29% worse than average in the small sample, last year he saw 326 plate appearances and created runs four percent ahead of the curve with six home runs and four stolen bases, so he is not completely inept.

Catcher Andrew Knizner has slashed .269/.364/.358 while creating runs 16% better than average over 77 plate appearances. The heir apparent to Yadier Molina can be rostered where catchers are required. Either Brendan Donovan or Corey Dickerson will likely round out the lineup in one spot or another in the bottom third. The pair of lefties are not ideal options, but if the team blows up Lauer’s day they could easily see plate appearances against right-handed pitching, which would boost the appeal significantly at no popularity. Either can be included with low expectations.

Home Run Prediction Today: C.J. Cron — Colorado Rockies

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Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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