Thursday brings a small MLB DFS main slate with only five games on deck on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With the big run-scoring opportunity spots scheduled into the afternoon slate, the evening schedule tops out at just 9.5 runs in the matchup between the Phillies and Nationals. The Rangers vs Tigers game comes in with an 8.5 total, the Rays vs Yankees and Brewers vs Mets games are both slated for only eight runs and the Angels vs Mariners game drops to just a seven-run total in what should be the best pitching duel of the night. The Yankees are carrying a run total of 4.9, the second highest on the slate behind the 5.6-run implied total going to the Phillies, who are a strongly favored top stack of the day for MLB DFS scoring output. The Phillies and Rangers are seeing power bumps from their respective matchups against two pitchers who yield far too much premium contact, they are key targets on this slate. With a pair of premium aces and several other serviceable pitchers on the table, there are a number of angles into the slate that can yield highly probable yet positively leveraged lineups, despite hefty ownership on a few key players.
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Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson — 7.73
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 13.17
Milwaukee Brewers: Rowdy Tellez — 12.80
New York Mets: Francisco Lindor — 5.74
New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 12.67
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 13.13
Seattle Mariners: Jesse Winker — 5.07
Tampa Bay Rays: Brett Phillips — 3.11
Texas Rangers: Kole Calhoun — 22.63
Washington Nationals: Nelson Cruz — 4.89
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
The Thursday main slate looks free from any significant weather concerns. There are minor scattered showers with precipitation probability in the low teens for the games in Washington D.C. and New York, but none seem like they will face postponement.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the Top Stacks Tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Thursday’s small pitching slate is another top-heavy affair that features two proven aces at the top of the board with significant popularity. Both Zack Wheeler and Shohei Ohtani warrant significant attention from the field in their respective matchups and with a limited number of premium options on the board, Ohtani, is particularly popular at his broken price of just $8,200 on the DraftKings slate. The Yankees will have Luis Severino starting against the Rays in their hitter-friendly home park, the righty has been every bit as good as Wheeler and Ohtani this season, but he is in arguably the worst matchup of the three while landing at a similar price point on the FanDuel slate. Martin Perez lands at an odd and uncomfortable price tag for anyone familiar with his long-term body of work. The Rangers lefty is having an excellent season and he is facing the lowly Tigers, but it is still very difficult to gin up the necessary belief in the starter at these inflated prices. Seattle’s George Kirby is the final easily playable option on the slate, he will be facing a high-strikeout Angels lineup at a reasonable mid-range price on FanDuel and for far too cheap at just $6,500 on DraftKings.
Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler is facing the fairly low-strikeout Nationals, who have a 20.2% rate that lands sixth against righties this season. The team is a relatively non-threatening offense that may be without their best bat in outfielder Juan Soto, which would have a major impact on that strikeout rate and their potential to generate any power or run creation upside. With Soto active, the Nationals roster has created runs just 1% better than average this season and they have a 2.58% home run rate and a .141 ISO. Wheeler, meanwhile, has been excellent over 63.1 innings this season, he has a 29.2% strikeout rate and a 2.86 xFIP with a 2.84 ERA. The righty has induced a 12.9% swinging-strike rate with a 30.2% CSW% while yielding just a 33.3% hard-hit percentage with a 4.3% barrel rate that have added up to a microscopic 0.78% home run rate this season. Wheeler costs $9,600 on DraftKings and $10,600 on FanDuel, he is under-owned at just 15% on the blue site and around 30% on DraftKings, he will be positively leveraged on both sites. Wheeler is a prime target for pitching shares across the industry this evening.
Luis Severino lands at the peak of the Top Pitchers tool on both sites tonight. The Yankees’ righty has a 28.9% strikeout rate over 61 innings in 11 starts this season, pitching to a 3.17 xFIP and a 2.80 ERA while allowing a 3.25% home run rate. Severino has induced a 13.9% swinging-strike rate, but he has yielded a fair amount of premium contact with a 39.7% hard-hit percentage. Severino is facing a Rays team that has a .146 ISO and a 2.91% home run rate against righties this season, so he is relatively safe from major power output, and his opponent has created runs at a rate 3% worse than average in the split this season. There is also strikeout upside available for Severino, the Rays active roster has a 24.6% strikeout rate in the split, the 26th-ranked team in the league. The Yankees righty is projected for more than 30% popularity on FanDuel, and he lands above 50% on DraftKings. He is in a good spot and has major scoring upside, but he is technically at negative leverage on this slate.
Update: Within seconds of publication of this article, it was announced that Luis Severino has been scratched from tonight’s start and placed on the COVID-19 list.
In a start against the Mariners, Shohei Ohtani looks like another strong bet for pitching upside, but he also lands at significant popularity. For some reason, Ohtani is priced at just $8,200 on DraftKings, which is drawing more than 40% of the field while he is pulling in a 22% projection for his $10,200 price on FanDuel. Ohtani has been extremely sharp on the mound this season, he has a 31.7% strikeout rate over 54.1 innings in 10 starts, pitching to a 2.82 xFIP and a 3.64 ERA. The righty has yielded a bit of power with a 3.57% home run rate on a 37.4% hard-hit percentage and a 9.4% barrel rate, but he can be dominant in starts and he has a clear path to a strong fantasy score. The Mariners are not a pushover opponent, the team has a 112 WRC+ against righties this season, the 12th-best run creation mark in the split, and they have struck out at a 20.9% rate that also sits 12th in the league. Still, Ohtani should be able to find strikeout upside while suppressing offensive output for a team that has a .142 ISO and a 2.63% home run rate against righties. Ohtani warrants a small undercut on his major popularity, but he should be rostered aggressively across the industry.
On the other side of the same contest, George Kirby is also carrying an oddball price tag on DraftKings. Kirby costs $6,500 on that site while checking in for $9,400 across town on FanDuel. The righty has a 22.7% strikeout rate and just a 2.6% walk rate this season, he has pitched to a 3.50 xFIP and a 3.65 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP that suggests he has been a bit unlucky with batting average on balls in play, a mark that comes in at a high .290. Kirby has allowed too much premium contact, he has yielded a 43.9% hard-hit percentage and a 10.5% barrel rate with a 4.55% home run rate this season, so he may run into trouble against the few hard-hitting members of the Angels lineup, but he may also benefit from major strikeout opportunities. Kirby is facing an Angels active roster that has a 29th-ranked 26% strikeout rate against righties this year, he is pulling in a 30% popularity mark at the broken DraftKings price but just 8.7% for his cost on the blue site, making him an interesting tournament play FanDuel.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies stout offense will be backing up Zack Wheeler with major scoring upside in a matchup against flawed veteran southpaw Patrick Corbin, who comes in with just a 17.5% strikeout rate this season. Corbin has allowed a 2.87% home run rate, but that comes on the back of a 44.3% hard-hit percentage with a 10% barrel rate that suggests he has gotten quite lucky to this point. Corbin allowed a 4.93% home run rate last season on a 40.7% hard-hit rate and a 9.2% barrel rate. More power is coming, and the Phillies are the exact right team to exploit the opportunity for a big power outburst. Philadelphia’s projected lineup is aggressively owned by the field however, the top five hitters are all projected for more than 30% popularity on DraftKings and between 25 and 30% on FanDuel. Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto are all deservedly popular. They have significant power upside and provide excellent correlated scoring opportunities as a five-man stack, but the crushing popularity makes it problematic to put them together with other key pieces tonight. The bottom of the batting order has a few options to help offset some popularity, but even Didi Gregorius, Alec Bohm and Yairo Munoz are drawing attention. The Phillies are worth rostering, they are in an excellent spot, but attention must be paid to differentiation on this small slate.
Texas Rangers
Another team benefiting from a fantastic matchup is Texas. The Rangers are on the road in Detroit to face righty Beau Brieske who has a 15.3% strikeout rate and a 4.82 xFIP this season. Brieske is a bad starter who pitches to contact while allowing far too much premium bat-on-ball. So far this season he has yielded a 43.6% hard-hit percentage with a 12.8% barrel rate, amounting to a massive 5.94% home run rate that has Texas’ power numbers inflated by a dramatic amount. Brieske should allow plenty of opportunities for the Rangers to create runs and hit for power, he has just a 7.4% swinging-strike rate and a 21.8% CSW%, the Rangers are a strong bet but one that also comes at significant popularity, they should be targeted but using them in conjunction with the Phillies and popular pitching will lead to duplicated lineups in large field GPPs.
A run creation mark 17% worse than average and just six home runs is probably not what the Rangers front office thought they were buying in free agency with Marcus Semien. Last season, the infielder hit 45 home runs and created runs 31% better than average while with Toronto, while that was also an unreasonable expectation for 2022, Semien should be far better than his .224/.287/.346 triple-slash. Semien has added 11 stolen bases to his six home runs, which helps with his fantasy output in minor ways, but he has not been hitting for power or getting on base nearly enough so far this year. He costs $4,600 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel and he will be rostered at or around 30% across both sites.
Corey Seager has been a far better addition for Texas, but he actually slips to a 99 WRC+ coming into today’s slate. The shortstop has hit 13 home runs in his 266 plate appearances this season, he has a 44.2% hard-hit percentage and a 10.2% barrel rate as one of the better power-hitting shortstops in the game. Seager is slashing .224/.289/.415 with a .191 ISO, he can be rostered against this pitcher with enthusiasm, but around 30% of the field will be doing so on both sites with this Texas infielder as well.
Outfielder Adolis Garcia hit 31 home runs and stole 16 bases in a breakout season in 2021. So far this year he has hit 12 home runs and swiped 10 bases over 256 plate appearances, creating runs 13% better than average. Garcia is a solid multi-category contributor for MLB DFS scoring, he has plenty of speed to go with his 46.2% hard-hit percentage and 10.7% barrel rate and his home run total is second on the team behind Seager. Garcia is also crushingly popular on both sites, with ownership landing between 20 and 25%.
Kole Calhoun is an interesting left-handed bat with an excellent home run upside in this matchup. Calhoun has a 47.5% hard-hit percentage with a 12.1% barrel rate, both team-leading marks, and he has hit seven home runs in his 208 plate appearances this season. Calhoun is cheap and less popular than he should be on DraftKings, he is a bargain at $2,500 but pulling in 20% popularity on FanDuel.
Catcher Jonah Heim hits from both sides of the plate and he has seven home runs while creating runs 11% better than average this season, he can be rostered for $2,600 as a differentiator on FanDuel and he makes for a strong catcher play on the site that actually requires the position.
First baseman Nate Lowe is an underrated bat in the Rangers lineup. Lowe has created runs 17% better than average over his 228 plate appearances this year, hitting eight home runs while slashing .276/.320/.435 this season, he is in play at just $3,000 and 14% ownership on DraftKings and $3,000 for 8.9% popularity on FanDuel, the bottom-half of the Rangers lineup features a few interesting opportunities with pricing and popularity.
Over the first 44 plate appearances of his career, Ezequiel Duran is slashing .326/.341/.535 with a .209 ISO while creating runs 51% better than average. Duran has two home runs and two stolen bases in the tiny sample as well, he is a well-regarded prospect who has already flashed upside at the major league level, which has the multi-position infielder drawing popularity on both sites. Duran can be utilized, but he is no longer a secret.
Brad Miller is slashing .223/.277/.392 with seven home runs as a part-time platoon player for the Rangers this season. Miller primarily plays against right-handed pitching, he is an established power hitter who delivered 20 home runs last season and who hit 30 home runs the only year he saw more than 500 plate appearances, reaching that mark in 601 tries in 2016. Miller has a 37.6% hard-hit percentage and an 8.6% barrel rate this season, by far his lowest marks in at least four years. Miller has averaged a 46% hard-hit percentage and a 12.8% barrel rate over the last three seasons, he is still very good when he gets bat on ball, and he is cheap and less popular than some teammates.
Speedy Leody Taveras is slashing just .111/.200/.111 over his first 10 plate appearances this season. Taveras has struggled to get traction at this level, he made 185 plate appearances last season and slashed .161/.207/.270 with three home runs and 10 stolen bases. If he gets on he is capable of creating MLB DFS points from thin air with his speed, but it is an unlikely proposition. Taveras can be deployed with caution in a small number of lineups at low popularity.
Home Run Prediction Today: Kole Calhoun — Texas Rangers
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