The Thursday main slate features an interesting mix of pitchers, including the return of a long-absent former Nationals ace (on one site, at least), a pair of premium options and a lot of back–of-rotation arms. FanDuel is starting the action at 6:40 ET to include the Nationals vs Marlins game, with DraftKings opting for the five-game slate that begins at 7:10 ET. A number of hittable pitchers should lead to a strong night of scoring, which is reflected on the board in Vegas. The game between the Orioles and Royals checks in at a slate-leading 9.5 run total, while the four earlier games in the evening are all carrying totals of 8.5. The final matchup of the night, an interesting contest between the Red Sox and Angels, lands at the bottom of the slate with an eight-run total and a depleted Angels lineup that will be lacking Mike Trout and will not have the team’s other superstar available as he will be on the mound. On a somewhat short slate, focusing on differentiation at the plate, both in stack choices and selection of hitters with those stacks, is the key to building unique lineups. On the mound, gamers can target the top-end starters aggressively, while approaching the remaining spots with a “best option that fits for price” mentality utilizing the Top Pitchers Tool for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Matt Olson — 15.59
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 8.51
Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 7.29
Cleveland Guardians: Oscar Gonzalez — 9.22
Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 13.34
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 11.67
Miami Marlins: Jorge Soler — 11.46
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton — 11.38
New York Yankees: Joey Gallo — 10.30
Oakland Athletics: Kevin Smith — 9.37
Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Chavis — 4.22
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 4.58
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
Thursday’s weather is non-threatening, a roof will mitigate any risk from the storms in Miami, and hitting conditions for the remaining five games are clear and favorable.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The Thursday pitching slate has one clear-cut ace at the top of the heap in the form of Yankees starter Gerrit Cole, who carries a slate-leading probability of being the top option on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, but who also comes at a heavy ownership cost. Cole is followed on the board by capable options in Max Fried and Nick Pivetta. Fried has the better matchup, the southpaw is taking on a Pirates team that is far better against lefties than they are righties, but he has the talent to overcome any upside the Pirates see in the split. Pivetta is facing a free-swinging Angels lineup that is likely to be missing Mike Trout once again, giving him an excellent chance at pitching deep into the game while chasing a heavy strikeout total. On the other side of that matchup, Angels star Shohei Ohtani will answer back with his excellent strikeout rate but he will be challenged by a talented hard-hitting Red Sox lineup, knocking him down the Top Starters board by a few places. A total wildcard on the slate is returning Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg, who has thrown just 26.2 innings in the last two years. Strasburg made it through just five starts and 21.2 innings last year after pitching only five innings before an injury in the odd 2020 season. The starter was excellent in his last full season in 2019, pitching to a 3.17 xFIP and a 29.8% strikeout rate. Strasburg has made three minor league rehab starts, pitching 13.1 innings of strong baseball. The righty is unlikely to pitch deep into the game tonight, but at $8,200 he has a chance of finding enough strikeouts to be slate-relevant with no one including him in lineups. On the other side of the same game, struggling Marlins starter Trevor Rodgers should have an opportunity to get his season headed in the right direction with a strong start for MLB DFS scoring. The slate fills out with options like J.T. Brubaker, Dylan Bundy and Jordan Lyles, none of whom are overly appealing in this situation.
At $10,400 on DraftKings and $10,800 on FanDuel, Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is drawing significant popularity as the clear top starter on the slate tonight. Cole draws a Twins team that hits for power and has been successful creating runs in the split, this is no pushover opponent. Minnesota’s active roster has a .164 ISO and a 3.09% home run rate that sit 10th and 12th in baseball while their collective WRC+ in the split lands at a second-ranked 21% better than average. The team does strike out at a 22.9% rate against righties, dropping to 19th in the split, but they can punish mistakes and Cole tends to make one or two per game, even in his best starts. The Yankees righty has a 31.5% strikeout rate with a 5.8% walk percentage and a 2.59 xFIP this season. He has induced an excellent 15.5% swinging-strike rate while limiting home runs to just 2.33% on a 38.1% hard-hit percentage and a 6.9% barrel rate. Cole is a premium starter who should be able to handle anything the Twins bring to the plate while chasing a high strikeout total and a quality start bonus with the win coming easily, as his teammates will be facing Dylan Bundy, who is likely to yield both run creation and power to the loaded Yankees lineup. With the strong probability that Cole lands as the night’s top scorer, he is drawing nearly 45% popularity on DraftKings and 20% on FanDuel, but his leverage scores are only slightly into negative territory. Ultimately, he is highly playable at, or even beyond, the field’s projected ownership.
Braves lefty Max Fried has struck out 22.1% of opposing hitters while pitching to a 3.02 xFIP and a 2.74 ERA. Fried has been excellent through the season despite a minor dip in strikeouts, he has a 4.3% walk rate and a 1.01 WHIP while inducing a 12.3% swinging-strike rate and keeping the ball in the yard with a 1.81% home run rate. The southpaw has allowed just a 37.3% hard-hit percentage with a 6% barrel rate and a 6.2-degree average launch angle, it is difficult to elevate the ball against Fried, let alone hit it on a home run trajectory with the requisite power. The opposing Pittsburgh Pirates are betting against left-handed pitching, the team has a .167 ISO and a 3.38% home run rate that rank 11th and eighth in the split, and they have created runs 4% better than average. With Fried’s ability to sap power from opposing offenses he should be able to shut down the positive aspects of the matchup for Pittsburgh while exploiting the team’s 23.6% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, Fried is pulling in major popularity with a reasonable price for the premium matchup. The lefty costs $9,500 on the DraftKings slate, where he is nearly equaling Cole at roughly 45% popularity. On FanDuel, Fried outpaces the Yankees ace as the most popular option on the slate, his $9,800 price is pulling in the attention of more than 30% of the field. Any choice on the mound that is not named Cole or Fried is an immediate differentiator tonight, but the pair of pitchers carry much of the night’s probability of success.
At $8,400 on DraftKings and $9,100 on FanDuel, Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta is drawing some attention from the public, but he lands as a positively leveraged option across the industry tonight. Pivetta has a 23.3% strikeout rate over 61.2 innings in his 11 starts this season, pitching to a 4.00 xFIP and a 3.50 ERA. The righty walks a few too many, his rate sits at 8.4% but he has been good with keeping the ball in the park, posting a 2.41% home run rate in spite of a 43.8% hard-hit percentage and an 8.9% barrel rate. Pivetta has strikeout acumen that is not necessarily on display in his statistics so far, last year he had a 26.5% strikeout rate over 155 innings in 30 starts, he has a good chance to exploit the free-swinging nature of the Angels’ lineup. Los Angeles’ active roster lands 30th out of 30 teams with a 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The team has a sturdy home run rate at 3.80% and they create runs 8% ahead of league average with a .174 ISO in the split, but they will likely be without superstar Mike Trout, who is nursing an injury. Even if Trout is in the lineup, he and Shohei Ohtani both strike out at greater than a 25% rate, Pivetta has upside at positive leverage on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
On the other side of the same game, Shohei Ohtani checks in at significant negative leverage on the DraftKings slate, and he lands only a few points below the leverage line on the blue site. Ohtani ranks third on the board by his probability of success, and he comes at a cheap price for a pitcher with a 33% strikeout rate over 47.1 innings. The righty has a 2.69 xFIP and a 3.99 ERA, he has induced a sharp 15.1% swinging-strike rate while walking only 5.6%, but he has taken some damage on balls in play and he has allowed a surprising 4.06% home run rate on a 36.7% hard-hit percentage with a 10.8% barrel rate. Ohtani was far better at limiting home runs last year. The increased rate is likely down to happenstance, but the surface numbers have the ace-caliber starter checking in at just $8,100 on DraftKings and drawing nearly 50% of the field. At a normal $9,900 on FanDuel, Ohtani is far more playable at around 20% popularity. The righty will be facing a Red Sox lineup that has come on extremely strong in recent weeks. Boston ranks 11th with a .161 ISO and 10th in creating runs 12% better than average against right-handed pitching. The team’s 20.6% strikeout rate sits 10th in the split, but their home run upside has remained dormant, they rank only 23rd with a 2.50% home run percentage against righties this season. Ohtani is not entirely safe, and he has the weight of public popularity around his neck in this start. Undercutting him in favor of drawing additional shares of the pitchers featured above or taking shots on positive leverage from lesser options below him on the board seems like a quality approach to large-field tournament play.
New York Yankees
After disappointing somewhat as yesterday’s top stack on the board, the Yankees are right back at it tonight, landing second by their probability of success metric on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The team is facing Dylan Bundy, who has a limited 19.1% strikeout rate and a 4.01 xFIP with a 5.57 ERA and a 4.26% home run rate so far this season. Bundy allows plenty of premium contact, the Yankees loaded lineup should be able to take advantage and create runs through sheer power. New York’s projected lineup is drawing popularity, but they are playable in stacked combinations. D.J. LeMahieu is an easy option with three-position eligibility on FanDuel for a cheap price, he comes with two positions and a fair price across town on DraftKings, where he is pulling in nearly 17% popularity as one of the most highly owned Yankees. Aaron Judge is the most popular bat on the team at about 22% on both sites, he has created runs 99% better than average this season and belongs in most Yankees stacks. Judge is followed by Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson in the modern-day Murderers’ Row that is the healthy Yankees lineup. Gleyber Torres has had a strong start to his season and should be included if he is in the lineup, while Aaron Hicks has scuffled but remains an option for correlated scoring. The Yankees catchers are rare contributors, but Jose Trevino has managed four frustrating home runs and a .281/.333/.461 triple slash while creating runs 31% better than average in his 96 plate appearances this season. Masher Joey Gallo is lurking toward the bottom of the lineup as the most likely player to damage a lineup that forgets him. Isiah Kiner-Falefa does not offer that sort of upside; he is a price and popularity offset option at best. Differentiating combinations of Yankees bats is an easy task and the full stack is arguably underpriced, they make for a fine tournament target again tonight.
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Atlanta Braves
The Braves are atop the board on both sites when sorting by the team’s probability of success. Atlanta is facing J.T. Brubaker, a serviceable right-handed starter who does not stand out for quality. Brubaker has pitched to a 22.5% strikeout rate with a 4.40 xFIP and a 4.70 ERA this season, he has a 1.45 WHIP and a 10.2% walk rate that provide far too many chances to opposing offenses and he is somewhat targetable for power with a 3.39% home run rate. The Braves lineup is frequently featured in this space, the team plays from one through nine on most nights and they pack a wallop against pitchers of both hands. When a righty is on the mound, Atlanta’s active roster has generated a .176 ISO and a 3.59% home run rate that rank fifth and sixth in the split. The team has created runs 3% better than average but they do strike out at an aggressive 26.2% clip, the 29th-ranked mark in the game. Minor shares of Brubaker could be acceptable in tournament play, but the Braves bats should be the focus, they are pulling in excellent home run marks in today’s home run model, and the team is loaded from top to bottom. Ronald Acuna Jr. is the most popular bat at around 20% ownership on DraftKings and 25% on FanDuel. The superstar is followed by shortstop Dansby Swanson, who has hit six home runs and stolen nine bases while creating runs 18% better than average, Austin Riley, who has hit 15 home runs and has a .269 ISO, and Matt Olson, who is drawing a team-leading home run mark tonight despite his slow start for power this year. Olson has seven home runs, but he has still created runs 30% better than average while connecting at a 46.9% hard-hit rate. The slugging first baseman leads into Travis d’Arnaud, Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies, who could hit one, two, and three for many teams in baseball. Adam Duvall has hit just four home runs while slashing .205/.264/.332 this year, but there is always a place for his clear power at a cheap price and no popularity. Rookie Michael Harris II rounds out the projected lineup with low-cost quality. Atlanta’s confirmed lineup can be played in any configuration tonight, they have an excellent chance of delivering as the top stack and their ownership and leverage situations are not tragic or unplayable.
Baltimore Orioles
A rare feature spot for the Orioles is the result of a slate-leading stack score on both sites tonight. The Orioles rank third by the probability of success on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and the new summary metric has them rating as the best overall option when price, popularity, and leverage are taken into account. Baltimore is facing Royals lefty Kris Bubic who may as well take the mound dressed as a gigantic bullseye. Bubic has a 14.3% strikeout rate and a 15.4% walk rate over 18.1 innings in his six starts this season. The southpaw has allowed a 5.49% home run rate on a 50% hard-hit percentage with a 15.6% barrel rate, partially explaining why he has a 9.33 ERA this season. The Orioles’ heavily right-handed lineup has not been great against lefties this season, they were better in the split last year but in 2022 the team has just a 2.38% home run rate and a .125 ISO in the split while creating runs 11% worse than average. Part of that has clearly been attributable to their newly renovated ballpark that sapped right-handed power in the early portion of the season, the team’s numbers spike in the split when on the road, which is the case tonight. Baltimore looks like a strong option for stacks at fair prices, but the public seems to be flocking more to the opposing Royals, who all land at mid-20% popularity on both sites. Baltimore is under-owned for its potential in this spot.
Switch-hitting outfielder Cedric Mullins II was outstanding in hitting 30 home runs and stealing 30 bases seemingly out of nowhere last season. Mullins has hit just six home runs, but he has stolen 11 bases this season while slashing .237/.298/.379 and creating runs 6% worse than average. A turnaround from the team’s dynamic leadoff hitter will do wonders for their run creation, simply getting on base more frequently atop the lineup should be Mullins’ goal over the next few weeks, but he remains an excellent option for MLB DFS purposes in any form. Mullins strikes out at just an 18.7% clip, he puts the ball in play regularly, and he costs merely $3,100 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings. The low prices make the outfielder Baltimore’s most popular bat on this slate, but he can still be utilized in stacks on both sites.
Trey Mancini was vocal about his dislike for the new park dimensions in Baltimore in the early part of the season, his power was clearly impacted early on, but Mancini has still turned in a strong performance to this point in the season. The first baseman is slashing .303/.374/.448 with six home runs while creating runs 39% better than average over his 227 plate appearances this season but he is pulling only a 10.4% popularity projection on DraftKings and sits less than three percentage points above that mark across town on the blue site. Mancini is always a strong addition to Orioles stacks, a slugger with a 43.6% hard-hit percentage and an 11% barrel rate should absolutely be more popular against this pitcher.
Excellent young outfielder Austin Hays has delivered on his potential for the Orioles over the past season and a half. Hays hit 22 home runs in 529 plate appearances while creating runs 6% better than average for Baltimore last year, this season he has hit seven home runs while improving his output across the board. Hays is slashing .292/.359/.467 this season, up from .256/.308/.461 last year, which has bumped his run creation mark significantly. Hays matches Mancini with a WRC+ that sits 39% above average in his 217 plate appearances this season. He is also the third straight hitter in this lineup who strikes out less than 20% of the time and puts the ball in play with ease. Hays is underappreciated on both sites tonight.
In some ways, Anthony Santander has scuffled to start the season. The outfielder is slashing .231/.338/.397 with no stolen bases and just a 38.1% hard-hit percentage with an 8.4% barrel rate, but he still leads the team with nine home runs. Santander has created runs 15% better than average but his ISO sits at just .166 after delivering 18 home runs on a .192 ISO last year. The switch-hitter is a productive player, he strikes out just 19.7% of the time and walks in 12% of his plate appearances, bolstering his correlated scoring potential. Santander belongs in most Orioles stacks; he is pulling in a 12.6% popularity mark for a low $3,600 price on DraftKings and just a 4.9% ownership share at $3,100 on FanDuel.
Adam Scherer’s FanDuel MLB DFS picks today and top low-owned GPP stacks.
The projected Orioles lineup is a bit frustrating on DraftKings, where Ryan Mountcastle presents a decision point at first base, limiting gamers to a choice between him and Trey Mancini, but both can be included with FanDuel’s flex position. The projected lineup on one site actually includes a third first baseman, but skipping him is less problematic than the Mountcastle conundrum. The first baseman has a 45.5% hard-hit percentage and a team-leading 13.6% barrel rat this season and he has hit eight home runs in his 189 plate appearances. Mountcastle is slashing .257/.302/.429 and creating runs 7% better than average this season. He is pulling in an 18.3% popularity rate as the more frequent choice on DraftKings while he lands in just 8.3% of lineups on the blue site.
Third baseman Ramon Urias is slashing .225/.273/.387 and creating runs 13% worse than average so far this season, but there is an appeal in his 50.8% hard-hit percentage and 9.4% barrel rate. Urias has translated the premium contact into six home runs and a .162 ISO, but he strikes out at an aggressive 25.5% clip and he is more a bolt-on than a featured target in this stack. Tyler Nevin checks in as the third first baseman on FanDuel, but he carries additional third base eligibility on DraftKings. Nevin has hit one home run and created runs 24% worse than average. He is not an appealing MLB DFS option. The same is true of catcher Robinson Chirinos, who is slashing .133/.232/.235 and creating runs 62% worse than average. Rookie Adley Rutschman is the better backstop option if he is in the lineup.
Shortstop Jorge Mateo rounds out the projected batting order with skills that are always interesting for MLB DFS purposes. Mateo is probably the fastest player in baseball, he has stolen 13 bases despite getting on at just a .240 clip so far this season, if he could ever crack even a .300 on-base percentage he would be a weapon for fantasy baseball. The shortstop has flashed minor power that has always been expected but rarely present in his limited time in the Show. He has hit four home runs this season on just 30% hard-hit and a 7.5% barrel rate. It would not be fair to expect power, but knowing it is possible is a bonus with this player. The flawed option checks in with a 31.4% strikeout rate and just a 3.2% walk percentage, which helps to explain the brutal on-base percentage. Still, as a $2,400 option with only 5.1% popularity as a wraparound on FanDuel and 13% ownership at $2,700 on DraftKings, Mateo makes for an interesting mix and match alternative at shortstop, and he is a good addition to Orioles stacks.
Home Run Prediction Today: Matt Olson — Atlanta Braves
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