The midweek main slate features nine games on both DraftKings and FanDuel on a night that seems to be leaning toward the offensive side of the game in a number of spots around the league. The board does include several premium starters, but a Coors Field game and another windy day in Chicago have two inflated run totals on the board, with positive hitting conditions and poor pitching options for several teams creating additional opportunities unrelated to park factors. The board in Vegas tops out with an 11.5-run total between the Padres and Cubs in Chicago and a 12-run mark for the Guardians vs Rockies game in Coors Field, both games seem very likely to pop for MLB DFS relevant scoring, but much of the field’s roster liquidity will be soaked into those two sponges, leaving ample opportunity for offenses in other contests around the league. With a number of high-end teams on the board in those games, simply pivoting to options including the Braves, Blue Jays, Red Sox, or Cardinals could be a winning move on the right night.
Best MLB DFS Tournament Strategy & Picks Today
Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 12.43
Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 7.34
Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 10.15
Chicago Cubs: Frank Schwindel — 13.11
Cleveland Guardians: Josh Naylor — 6.76
Colorado Rockies: Randal Grichuk — 10.99
Los Angeles Angels: Taylor Ward — 6.59
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 12.69
Milwaukee Brewers: Rowdy Tellez — 7.45
New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 4.13
New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 8.88
Oakland Athletics: Seth Brown — 10.69
Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Chavis — 7.74
San Diego Padres: Jake Cronenworth — 6.93
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 7.09
Tampa Bay Rays: Isaac Paredes — 6.43
Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 13.26
Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 5.18
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
Wednesday’s weather looks promising for hitting and non-threatening for pitching, with no obvious spots for expectations of in-game delays or postponements.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the Top Stacks Tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The top-heavy Wednesday pitching slate reaches significant heights, with aces including Corbin Burnes, Shane McClanahan, and, despite the best efforts of reality, Nestor Cortes Jr. The Yankees southpaw is dueling McClanahan in a game in the Bronx that is carrying an uncharacteristically low run total in what should be a sharp pitcher’s duel with MLB DFS scoring potential on the mound on both sides. Burnes is sitting alone at the top of the board in a matchup against the Mets, but he will also be the most popular pitcher on the slate tonight. The Cardinals will be getting Jack Flaherty back in action for the first time in 2022, Flaherty was shelved during Spring Training with shoulder soreness after dealing with injuries on and off throughout last season. The righty is a very good pitcher who is in a great matchup, but his pitch count and upside are somewhat questionable and he ranks several spots down the board despite facing the lousy Pirates lineup. A pair of young starters come at good prices with reasonable popularity in matchups of differing quality, Spencer Strider will be facing the low-strikeout Nationals, while Roansy Contreras draws the stout Cardinals lineup. Between those two starters and the top of the board are veterans Jose Berrios and Tyler Anderson, both of whom benefit from their matchups, with Anderson facing the free-swinging Angels and Berrios drawing the Orioles. The final playable starter on the slate looks like Mets lefty David Peterson, who checks in at a mid-range price and positive leverage in a tricky spot against the Brewers. The board is perfectly shaped for mixing and matching top-end arms with mid-range options to create a balanced pool of entries while attacking some of the lesser-owned high-upside stacks across both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening.
Brewers ace Corbin Burnes is tonight’s slate leader for good reason, he has an excellent 31.8% strikeout rate with a 2.75 xFIP and a 2.48 ERA over 72.2 innings in 12 starts this season, continuing the torrid pace from his Cy Young Award-winning 2021. Burnes has limited home runs to a 3.11% rate on the back of a 38.1% hard-hit percentage and a 6.8% barrel rate and he has induced a 16.7% swinging-strike rate, he is excellent at limiting opportunities for opposing offenses and also getting out of any trouble that may arise via the strikeout. Burnes is facing a Mets active roster that sits 15th in baseball with a .155 ISO and 16th with a 2.74% home run rate against right-handed pitching, but one that also leads baseball with a run creation mark 26% above average in the split while striking out at a second-ranked 18.5% rate. Burnes will be challenged by New York’s lineup, but he is easily worth including in a large portion of MLB DFS entries on any site. Undercutting the field slightly in favor of drawing shares to allocate to positively leveraged options is always viable as well, but it would not be a mistake to roster Burnes at or around the field’s projected ownership.
Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. and Rays lefty Shane McClanahan have both been excellent to start the season. McClanahan has a whopping 35.5% strikeout rate with a 1.87 ERA and a 2.01 xFIP, he rivals Burnes with a 16.9% swinging-strike rate and he has been good at limiting premium contact with just a 33.5% hard-hit percentage and a 7.3% barrel rate leading to a 2.90% home run rate. Cortes has a 28.6% strikeout rate over his 64.1 innings in 11 starts, pitching to a 3.23 xFIP and a 1.96 ERA. The advanced numbers betray the difference between the two starters that is invisible when looking solely at their microscopic ERA marks, McClanahan is the better pitcher head-to-head. Still, Cortes has been excellent this season, he has limited home runs to a 2.42% rate on a 34.6% hard-hit percentage and sparkling 4.9% barrel rate. Both lefties are in play tonight, but neither will have an easy go of it. Cortes draws a Rays team that sits 13% above average creating runs against lefties while striking out at just a 16.5% rate, the leading mark in the split. Tampa Bay has been weak for power against lefties however, they have just a .102 ISO and a 1.18% home run rate, the 28th and 29th ranked marks in the split, giving Cortes hopes for pitching deep into the game. McClanahan will be facing a Yankees lineup that is loaded with right-handed power and sports lefties who handle same-handed pitching extremely well. The New York active roster is third in baseball with a .205 ISO and second with a 4.63% home run rate against left-handed pitching this season. The Yankees have created runs 20% better than average in the split while striking out at a 23.6% clip, the swing-and-miss gives McClanahan additional upside with his outrageously good strikeout rate, but there is always danger lurking with the Yankees’ one through nine power. McClanahan is somewhat unpopular and he is positively leveraged from site to site tonight, making him a very interesting MLB DFS tournament play, Cortes is a negatively leveraged option who could easily lead the slate but most likely warrants an ownership undercut.
The Orioles’ active roster has a .153 ISO and a 2.60% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season while striking out at a 22.8% clip, the latter two marks both rank 20th while the ISO sits 16th. Baltimore has created runs 2% worse than average against righties this year, which may be why the field appears to be aggressively leaning into shares of Toronto righty Jose Berrios on both sites tonight. Berrios is drawing popularity equal to Burnes for his $8,900 price tag on the DraftKings slate and his 30.6% ownership mark on FanDuel doubles up every other option on the board. Berrios is by far the most negatively leveraged play of the day, he sits at a -21.7 on FanDuel and -15.9 on DraftKings, again basically double the next-worst mark on the board. The roller-coaster righty is not exactly pitching to amazing numbers, despite two strong recent starts against the Twins and Tigers. Berrios cleared eight innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts against Detroit his last time out, a start after he put up a career-high 13 strikeouts in an outlier seven-inning performance against Minnesota. The reality of the situation is that Berrios is currently sitting at a 19.5% strikeout rate over his 64.2 innings this year, down from a 26.1% mark over 192 innings last season. The righty has a 4.24 xFIP with a 4.73 ERA and a 3.61% home run rate and he has yielded a massive 47.3% hard-hit percentage with an 11.8% barrel rate overall this season. Last year’s contact marks were at 38.3% hard-hit with a 9.1% barrel rate, so Berrios struggles with premium contact even when he is pitching well, when he is giving up more barrels and striking out fewer hitters a large swath of the field is playing with fire in rostering him at such significant negative leverage. Making any other decision on the mound will be a differentiation point tonight, rostering Orioles bats would be a highly contrarian way to attack the field’s overindulgence with the Toronto righty, while Berrios could lead the slate in scoring in this matchup it makes more sense to take an alternate angle to this specific corner of the slate.
Atlanta’s Spencer Strider checks in at just $7,700 on DraftKings and $7,500 on FanDuel despite his 36.8% strikeout rate for the season. Strider moved from a dominant multi-inning role in the bullpen to the starting rotation where he is still growing into the role. The righty has outrageous strikeout stuff but needs to harness his control and command and limit walks like he did in his recent outing against the Pirates to be truly effective. Overall, Strider has a 12.3% walk rate with a 1.12 WHIP, but he has pitched to a sterling 2.83 xFIP and a 2.35 ERA while inducing an ace-caliber 15.7% swinging-strike rate with a 31.1% CSW%. The righty has limited home runs to a 0.65% rate on 35.4% hard hits and a 7.6% barrel rate so far this season. He will be challenged by a stingy Nationals lineup that strikes out at just a 19.9% clip against righties, a mark that will change significantly if superstar Juan Soto sits again to nurse his sore knee. In that circumstance, Strider will gain significantly in his upside, making him an even sharper play at relatively low ownership. The Nationals have created runs 3% better than average but they have lacked power in the split with just a .142 ISO and a 2.57% home run rate this season. Strider is fully capable of delivering the requisite number of points for his low pricing, he is not popular enough at 20% on DraftKings and he is certainly too low-owned at 10.6% on FanDuel.
Coors Field
The Colorado ballpark is on the table once again tonight, this time with both teams ranking atop the Stacks Tool on both sites. The Guardians lead the way with significant popularity and a negative leverage score that is the slate’s second worst behind the Cubs. The team is facing Austin Gomber, a capable but average pitcher who can, at times, suppress opposing offenses. The Rockies rank second in a matchup against Konnor Pilkington, and they check in at lower raw ownership that sits closer to efficiency while still landing on the negative side of the coin. The Rockies once again seem like the better play for MLB DFS tournaments based on popularity, matchup and leverage, but they will be owned by more of the public this evening than against last night’s ace starter. Playable Guardians bats include Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez, Owen Miller and Josh Naylor, with options like Myles Straw, Oscar Mercado and others in the projected lineup filling in around the edges. Among the premium bats, only Rosario and Miller fall below 20% ownership on DraftKings, while the top-half of the lineup is owned at or around 20% on FanDuel. The less appealing bottom end of the lineup is still pulling mid-teens popularity, with a few single-digit marks on the worst overall options. The Rockies, meanwhile, are facing a limited lefty who has allowed a 41.3% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate that should play well into their heavily right-handed lineup. The Rockies are pulling interesting marks in the home run model, and they are on the plus side of splits. The top half of the lineup is projected for mid-teens popularity on DraftKings, with all of Connor Joe, Charlie Blackmon, Brendan Rodgers and C.J. Cron projected between 12 and 16%. On FanDuel, those marks range from 10% to 20%, with the bottom of the lineup filling in from the middle single-digits to the 15.8% mark on Randal Grichuk. Grichuk and fellow mid-lineup outfielder Yonathan Daza are cheap and less popular on DraftKings, as are Ryan McMahon and underappreciated correlation option Jose Iglesias.
Wrigley Field
The wind is a major factor at Chicago’s Wrigley Field once again today, and the game is pulling in a Coors-like run total. This situation has the public flocking to Cubs bats in their matchup against the Padres and lefty Ryan Weathers who is making his season debut. Weathers made 18 starts and 30 appearances in the Show last season, pitching to a 5.32 ERA with a 5.30 ERA and a 4.71 xFIP. The lefty had an 18% strikeout rate at the major league level last season, in 12 starts at triple-A this year he has just a 14.3% strikeout rate and a 9.3% walk rate while allowing a 4.65% home run rate, again these are triple-A numbers for 2022. This seems like an excellent spot to attach the pitcher with bats, but the entire field is looking in Chicago’s direction. The team is projected for a 23% ownership share as a stack on DraftKings, leaving them at a slate-worst -8.6 leverage score but still with a second-ranked 14.4 stack score overall, which tells us that they are popular but playable, which is also the case on FanDuel. Targetable Cubs bats include Christopher Morel, who is slashing .269/.353/.462 with a .192 ISO and three home runs over 120 plate appearances, creating runs 27% better than average atop the lineup. Morel is followed by catcher Willson Contreras and corner infielders Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel, who have combined for 24 home runs in 451 plate appearances this season. The pair of power hitters are projected for more than 25% popularity on DraftKings, and Wisdom is approaching 30% on FanDuel. Contreras drops in as the most popular Cubs hitter at a massive and likely unplayable 37.1% popularity projection at the catcher spot on DraftKings, and he remains at nearly 30% on the FanDuel slate. Ian Happ has seven home runs and five stolen bases as a key cog in the middle of the Cubs lineup, he is pulling in nearly 25% popularity on DraftKings and around 20% on the blue site. Happ leads into a low-end stretch of options that could include Yan Gomes, Jason Heyward, Nico Hoerner and Jonathan Villar, all of whom will carry ownership at varying degrees of potential productivity. Rostering Cubs still seems like a good idea, but getting well under the field and spreading out to other highly rated options in better ownership situations is recommended. One such option could be the opposing Padres, who will also benefit from the park factors and who will be facing a limited pitcher as well, with Caleb Kilian making the start for Chicago. The Padres lineup is pulling in single-digit ownership on DraftKings and mid-teens marks on the FanDuel slate, with Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer leading the way as options. Luke Voit has been featured regularly for being overrated, but he is playable in this scenario and his power seems to be stirring at long last. The Nomar Mazara, Ha-Seong Kim and others portion of the lineup in the bottom third is less inspiring, but they will all be unpopular and inexpensive for mix-and-match play.
Toronto Blue Jays
If it seems like the Braves and Blue Jays have been atop the power index for weeks, that’s not far off from reality. Both teams have been in excellent matchups for the last handful of slates in a row, and nothing changes tonight. The Braves could have easily taken this featured spot once again, but Toronto edges them out with a very favorable matchup and a lack of popularity that leads to positive leverage from near the top of the board. The Blue Jays draw Bruce Zimmermann tonight, a lefty who has pitched to a 4.25 xFIP and a 5.52 ERA with a very limited 16.6% strikeout rate and a 9.0% swinging-strike rate this season. Zimmermann has made 12 starts and thrown 62 innings, yielding a gigantic 5.66% home run rate on a 41.3% hard-hit percentage and a 13.5% barrel rate. The lefty has been spared somewhat from further misfortune by his sharp 4.2% walk rate, but he still has an inflated 1.40 WHIP, he is a major target for both power and sequencing, the Blue Jays have an excellent chance at a slate-leading performance this evening, but they are not drawing enough popularity.
George Springer has hit 12 home runs in his 243 plate appearances and he is creating runs 41% better than average from the right side of the plate. Springer has stolen four bases and he gets on base nearly 35% of the time, making him a great option for individual and correlated scoring on any slate. Springer comes in at below 10% popularity on DraftKings, as does the entire Blue Jays lineup. He will be more popular on FanDuel, where he is pulling in a 16.4% mark for his low $3,800 price. With positive leverage in play, Springer is an easy start to Blue Jays stacks.
Shortstop Bo Bichette is slashing .265/.310/.440 with a .175 ISO while creating runs 11% better than average and he has 10 home runs and four stolen bases this season. Despite the quality in that stat line, Bichette’s performance has been a bit disappointing, the shortstop slashed .298/.343/.484 with a 122 WRC+, 29 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 690 plate appearances just last year, leading to the conclusion that there is additional upside lurking. Bichette has a 51% hard-hit percentage and a 9.4% barrel rate. More power is inbound, and he makes a great option at around 10% popularity on both sites for a fair price at a premium position.
No one needs to be sold on the virtues of playing a superstar like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., even in a season that is undeniably below expectations to this point he is easily worthy of inclusion on any slate. Guerrero has hit 15 home runs and created runs 33% better than average with a .232 ISO, so “below expectations” is a very relative term in this sense, but this is a hitter who chased a Triple Crown last season, slashing .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs while creating runs 66% better than average, scarily that is closer to the true Guerrero than what we have seen in 2022, there is more upside in this bat as well.
Catcher Alejandro Kirk has hit five home runs while slashing .313/.394/.460 and creating runs 44% better than average over 188 plate appearances, he is projected to hit in the cleanup spot with the team’s young catcher prospect also likely to make an appearance later in the lineup, adding a bit of a wrinkle to roster dynamics on DraftKings, where catchers are needed, and on FanDuel, where catchers are not required but two can be included if desired. Kirk remains the preferred option at the position, and he is drawing just low single-digit popularity on both sites.
Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez is the most popular bat on this team on FanDuel once again, given consistent mispricing this time at just $2,500. Hernandez is pulling in a 23.5% ownership projection at that price on the blue site while landing at 7.8% for just $4,800 across town. The outfielder hit 32 home runs just last year, posting a .227 ISO with a 132 WRC+, he is excellent for the price despite his popularity and his current-year struggles. Hernandez is sitting at just .245/.303/.385 with a 95 WRC+ over his 155 plate appearances after suffering an injury earlier in the year, odds are he returns to form in a hurry so taking advantage of the misprice while it is available is a must.
Infielder Santiago Espinal has created runs 24% better than average over 233 plate appearances, slashing .294/.348/.450 with five home runs for the season. Espinal was 15% better than average for runs last year while slashing .311/.376/.405 over 246 plate appearances, so while this is a bit unexpected it is not entirely surprising. The infielder comes at a low price with multi-position eligibility on DraftKings, he is easily playable at second base for just $2,600 and 3.5% popularity on FanDuel as well.
Veteran Matt Chapman has hit eight home runs and is slashing .222/.308/.389 with a .167 ISO and a run creation mark 1% below average. Chapman is a bat to watch in this lineup, his power has been slow to fully emerge, but he has an excellent 50% hard-hit percentage and a sharp 11.1% barrel rate that suggest there is more on the way. Chapman has upside at just $4,400 and $2,800 from site to site, he will be owned at less than 5% across the industry but he deserves more attention.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. slots in as another cheap low-owned outfielder on both sites. Gurriel is slashing .278/.335/.399 with a 109 WRC+ this season, he has not hit for much power with just three home runs and a .121 ISO, but he is somewhat underappreciated at this point. Gurriel has a solid 46.9% hard-hit percentage but just a 4.4% barrel rate, he strikes out at just an 18.3% clip while walking 6.9% of the time, meaning he is putting the ball in play with authority on a regular basis, which should lead to additional productivity for MLB DFS scoring.
Catching prospect Gabriel Moreno is playable from the bottom of the lineup if the Blue Jays go with the dual-backstop configuration again. Moreno is one of baseball’s elite prospects, universally regarded as a top-10 overall farm player, and he has done well over his first dozen plate appearances in the Show. In the tiny sample, Moreno is slashing .364/.417/.364 with a run scored and two batted in, amounting to a run creation mark 29% better than average.
Home Run Prediction Today: Matt Chapman — Toronto Blue Jays
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