Sunday Sept. 4, gets a rare early start with Game 1 of the Colorado at Cincinnati doubleheader pushing up lock to 12:10 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/4)
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: LHP Nick Lodolo vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $9,700
Rain created a postponement on Saturday and there is precipitation throughout the Sunday forecast. Ideally it does not start until mid-afternoon, which should get the 90 or so minutes needed for rookie Nick Lodolo to put in his work before any delays. If this game starts out in a delay, the we should definitely look to other pitching options.
To their credit, the Rockies have at least been around league average when facing southpaws, but they still are not a particularly intimidating lineup. C.J. Cron has elite power and Randall Grichuk along with Brendan Rodgers are serviceable, but after that it is a bunch of lefties and replacement level bats.
Lodolo has a bit of a wild side with a walk rate nearly touching double digits, however, he also collects strikeouts in bunches at a 27.3% clip. Even better, he has limited power thus far in his rookie campaign and his salary is not going to break the bank.
Keep in mind as of this writing, both the MLB.com probable pitchers page and the ESPN schedule are listing Lodolo as the expected Game 1 starter. There is always a chance Cincinnati changes things up if it seems that a weather shortened outing is likely and they could elect to go with Game 2 starter Chase Anderson instead. In that case, we should hopefully know before this early lock and if that is the scenario the plays out, bail on Lodolo and use the next hour and change to determine what other pivots weather will allow such as Max Fried, Lucas Giolito and George Kirby.
Secondary Target: RHP Frankie Montas at Tampa Bay Rays — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $9,000
If weather risks were not so prevalent today, Frankie Montas would just be a mix-and-match option. The former Oakland ace has certainly underperformed expectations in his first five starts after being acquired by New York. To be fair, four of those starts have been against tough opponents with games in Boston and St. Louis along with two in the Bronx against the crosstown Mets and division rival Blue Jays. The three home runs allowed in his last start against the Angels in Anaheim was not a great look, but one of those came against Shohei Ohtani and at the end of the day a six inning start with half a dozen strikeouts and four earned runs is not the end of the world.
There are no issues in the controlled environment of Tropicana Field and of course this is a pitching friendly ballpark. Tampa Bay is above average against right-handed pitching with a 108 wRC+, but Montas should still be able to coax a strikeout per inning from the projected lineup this afternoon. Plus not having a weather headache is going to be worth a little boost today as well.
Wild Card Target: RHP Max Castillo at Detroit Tigers — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $5,900 | FanDuel $5,500
The forecast in Detroit is far from favorable, though it does seem there could be a couple of potential windows where at least most of this game could be played. Well at least enough to get in the requisite five innings to record a decision. Of course the Tigers are heading to the West Coast later today for a Monday night matchup against the Angels in Anaheim, so maybe this one gets called off early with there still being a late September series between these squads in three weeks.
If it looks like this game has a chance of going, rookie Max Castillo is an interesting option. Castillo was part of the return package from Toronto in the Whit Merrifield trade and he has been down in Triple-A getting ready to make his first start for the Royals. The 23-year-old logged 85 and 80 pitches in his two starts for the Omaha Storm Chasers and he should be good for around 75 pitches this afternoon against the hapless Tigers who are an abomination against right-handed pitchers. The salary and matchup make Castillo an intriguing option that is worth dancing with Mother Nature this afternoon.
Best MLB DFS Stacks
Wild and wonky weather is an understatement today and in the hour it took to analyze the weather, then write up the pitching matchups, things continued to shift. In order to maintain maximum utility for this article today, I will highlight the various options rather than going into great detail since so many matchups could be placed on hold.
Main Slate: Baltimore Orioles vs. RHP Adrian Martinez — 4.6 implied runs
Power has been an issue for rookie Adrian Martinez as he has a 1.86 home runs per nine innings rate across his 29 innings in The Show this season. However, it is not easy for any pitcher to work on that while plying their trade in the Pacific Coast League and in 89.2 innings, Martinez has allowed 2.4 home runs per nine innings pitching for the Las Vegas Aviators. Martinez came over from the Padres as part of the Sean Manaea deal and while he will end up being a decent back of the rotation starter, he is facing the team of destiny this afternoon in Baltimore.
First it was calling up rookie catcher Adley Rutschman that seemed to give the Orioles a boost on offense and in the clubhouse. They have continued surging up the standings and are in contention for a Wild Card slot and are doubling down by calling up shortstop Gunnar Henderson. The 21-year-old split time between the top two levels in MiLB with a combined 407 at bats resulting in a .297/.416/.531 triple slash line along with 19 home runs and 22 stolen bases. He was so feared in the minors that he ended up with 79 walks. While there will be an adjustment period for him in The Show, he should be able to handle it in stride.
Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle man the outfield and first base, while presenting headaches for opposing pitchers. Each has average to elite power against right-handed hurlers and there are extra-base hits in the Baltimore forecast. Rougned Odor and Jorge Mateo are differentiation options if the field starts flocking to the Batters of Birdland in hopes of avoiding the other weather spots. Either is capable of running into a home run and Mateo also does some running on the base paths when pitchers do not keep tabs on his leads from first base.
Main Slate: New York Mets vs. RHP Erick Fedde — 5.6 implied runs
This game is on the weather watch list, though it looks like only the later innings are carrying any risk. Last night Patrick Corbin saw Lady Luck smiling on him as New York managed only one run. It is unlikely that this formidable offense is held in check by sub par pitching two days in a row, so we can target the Metropolitans with wild abandon.
Gamers still think of Erick Fedde as a prospect, but this is his age-29 season and today marks his 97th big league appearance. Across his 427.2 MLB innings, Fedde has just 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings along with an unsightly 1.5 home run rate. While his nearly 50% ground ball rate can mask these deficiencies, nearly one in five fly balls leaves the yard.
The Mets bring the lumber from both sides of the plate with Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte being the four core building blocks. Dan Vogelbach should be in the lineup with a right-handed hurler on the mound, though he is a pinch hit risk as his base running continues to be hampered by lower leg issues. Jeff McNeil should see a boost in the batting order and with his ability as an above average defender at multiple positions, he is likely to play the full game.
Late Slate: Houston Astros at LHP Tucker Davidson — 5.3 implied runs
Yet again we have a Houston squad that is one of the best in the league against lefties. Though no teams have been able to keep pace with St. Louis, the Astros key batsmen have a long history of success when facing southpaws.
Tucker Davidson was never able to put it all together as an Atlanta prospect, so they dealt him to Anaheim for veteran reliever Raisel Iglesias. Davidson has been a disaster through four outings with the Halos lasting just 19 innings with 14, yes FOURTEEN walks. Sadly that is par for the course and in 34.1 total innings this season, he has 27 walks and just 21 whiffs.
Look to the usual suspects in Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and reigning American League batting champion Yulieski Gurriel this afternoon. Yordan Alvarez has not made a start in over a week as he has been dealing with a wrist issue and he has been a late scratch a few times during this stretch. Even if he returns, leaving him out of Houston stacks is an easy way to create differentiation on the three-game afternoon slate.
Rookie Jeremy Pena usually finds himself near the top of the order against lefties, so he is a solid option as well. From the back end of the lineup, former Baltimore slugger Trey Mancini and discount dandy Chas McCormick are another way to create unique lineups.
Additional Opportunities
Lucas Giolito is right in the sweet spot with the various sports books projecting him for around five strikeouts. This has led to a range 0f 4.5 to 5.5 strikeouts for his props. The Stokastic projections have him for 5.6 strikeouts today which makes the over 4.5 an interesting option, even though it comes with heavy “juice” at -150 to -160 on the books that have it currently posted. This projection give Giolito a 70% probability of reaching the five strikeouts needed for this wager, though it makes sense to look for a same game or regular parlay to help create a better ROI. Over his last dozen starts, the 28-year-old is averaging a strikeout per inning and with the Twins missing several key bats, Giolito is a strong option to close out the sixth inning which should be enough to nab his supporters a victory with the over.
If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.
Other Pitching Options
- LHP Max Fried vs. Miami Marlins (Main, weather risk)
- RHP George Kirby at Cleveland Guardians (Main, weather risk)
- RHP Lucas Giolito vs. Minnesota Twins (Main, weather risk)
- LHP Carlos Rodon vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Late)
- RHP Jose Urquidy at Los Angeles Angels (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Seth Brown at RHP Spenser Watkins (Main)
- Corey Seager at RHP Josh Winckowski (Main)
- Rafael Devers vs. RHP Dain Dunning (Main)
- Luke Voit at RHP Carlos Carrasco (main)
- Christian Walker vs. RHP Jason Alexander (Late)
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
There are weather issues everywhere today, including the doubleheader in Cincinnati. The venues with the highest risk are in Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis. Pittsburgh and Washington have slight chances of precipitation that is going to impact those games, however, it is enough to monitor.
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