MLB DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Pitchers: Atlanta Has a Peach of a Matchup Against Josiah Gray + Nola as SP1 (September 28)

Wednesday, September 28, marks the middle of the week with a GIANT 12-game featured slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.


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DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/28)

Main Slate Stack:

Atlanta Braves at RHP Josiah Gray — 5.1 implied runs

The Stokastic Top Stack Tool loves when Josiah Gray pitches, as he leads the league with 37 home runs. That is half a dozen more than Gerrit Cole, who has thrown nearly 46 more innings and has an 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings rate that is 2.1 higher than Gray’s. The only thing in Gray’s favor tonight is that the projected starting lineup for Atlanta has seen the former Dodger for only 24 collective at-bats.

Atlanta is currently tied with the Mets and the stakes are high, with the winner taking the National League East crown while the loser is relegated to Wild Card status. Lefties have been an issue for Gray, who has been hammered with a .388 wOBA and a .320 ISO in his last 399 opposite-handed matchups. Fellow righties have been elite as well when they connect with the ball, boasting a .220 ISO.

Tonight, we should target the trio of batters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate in the Braves’ standard lineup against right-handed starters. Matt Olson is of course one of the best hitters in the game, yet rookie Michael Harris II has better numbers, albeit in just 25% of the plate appearances. Veteran Eddie Rosario will likely be in the back half of the order and he has a long history of success when holding the platoon advantage. Washington does not have any decent lefties in their bullpen, so Rosario is likely to be in the lineup for the entire game.

Tuesday was a rough one for the Nationals as they called on four different relievers to close out the game after starter Paolo Espino hit the showers. This beleaguered bullpen is one of the worst in the league, so once Gray is out of the game, there is no cavalry coming to the rescue.

Round out full-stacks with Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Dansby Swanson. Catchers Travis d’Arnaud and William Contreras can be used for differentiation as well as whichever infielder or outfielder lucks their way into the lineup at the bottom of the order.

Late Slate Stack:

San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Jose Urena — 4.4 implied runs

Jose Urena has actually been serviceable over his last four starts with a 4.03 ERA, though three of those games came against some of the worst offenses in the league in the Cubs, Diamondbacks and Reds, with his last outing being against the Giants.

Even setting aside the power numbers and his ERA to ignore the Coors Field effect, Urena will have a paltry 14.0% strikeout rate and an untenable 9.6% walk rate over his last 800 batters. Playing the Giants can be a little dodgy as they like to pinch-hit their players to maintain the platoon advantage. Fortunately for San Francisco, Colorado only has one lefty in the lineup today.

Best MLB DFS Pitchers

Primary Pitching Target:

RHP Aaron Nola at Chicago Cubs — 3.0 implied runs
  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $10,300

Aaron Nola easily rates out with the best fantasy projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to the Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool. There will be plenty of ways to differentiate lineups for those that choose to ride with the venerable ace. Nola has been in lockdown mode over his last four starts, allowing just five earned runs and one long ball, both courtesy of Atlanta. Of course, the 29-year-old had his payback leading the Phillies to a 9-1 victory against Atlanta in the very next start. On the season, Nola has piled up 218 strikeouts, which is the fifth most in the league, and he has allowed a tick shy of one base runner per inning, which is the seventh best mark among qualified starters.

The Cubs are just playing out the string on the season and they have a lineup loaded with hitters that strike out well above the league average. The recent heater for Chicago has largely gone unnoticed, as they have won six of the last seven games, though this should mostly be attributed to the pitchers. Over the last 19 tilts, they have plated more than five runners three times. Tonight’s weather is a bonus as the game-time temperatures will be in the mid-50s with a 10 mph breeze coming in from right-center field.


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Secondary Pitching Target:

RHP Justin Verlander vs. Arizona Diamondbacks  — 2.8 implied runs
  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $11,200

Justin Verlander leads the league with his 1.82 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. With a 17-4 record, he has the second-best win total in the league. With these types of numbers, it should be no surprise that the 39-year-old is the odds on favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award.

Now for the caveats. Verlander will be turning 40 in February and he already has a pair of Cy Young Awards to his credit. Houston has the best record in the American League all but locked up with an 11-game lead over the Yankees. The Astros are 4.5 games behind the Dodgers for the best record in MLB, but that means in order to catch them they will pretty much need to win their seven remaining games AND Los Angeles will still have the best record unless they lose four or more of their last eight games.

Keeping in mind that Verlander missed the first part of September with a calf injury, it would be a surprise to see him throw more than 80 or so pitches as he should be in maintenance mode heading towards the postseason. Could he post a top-five score in just five innings tonight against Arizona? Absolutely, however, everything would really need to break his way. In his return from the injured list two weeks ago, he blanked the Athletics over five innings, allowing one base runner with a hefty nine strikeouts on 79 pitches for 32.1 fantasy points. That is the upside potential, however, in his last start in Baltimore with 93 pitches, he had a solid six-inning outing allowing two runs, but recording just four strikeouts in a Houston loss for a tick over 13 fantasy points. Caveat Emptor!

Additional Opportunities

Hayden Wesneski has been solid in his first four MLB appearances, however, he has had home dates against the Reds, Rockies and Giants, while facing the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Tonight, he faces his first real test against the Phillies. Wesneski has a 5.5 over/under on his strikeout prop while the Stokastic MLB DFS projections are forecasting 4.6 strikeouts and a 68% that he falls under the 5.5 milestone. Even with the -150 moneyline, this still works out to a reasonable 13% expected return on investment aka xROI as calculated by OddsShopper.

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Other Pitching Options

  1. RHP Triston McKenzie vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Early)
  2. RHP Taijuan Walker vs. Miami Marlins (Main)
  3. RHP Johnny Cueto at Minnesota Twins (Main SP2)
  4. RHP George Kirby vs. Texas Rangers (Main SP2, Late)
  5. LHP Julio Urias at San Diego Padres (Late)

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Other Hitting Options

  1. Javier Baez vs. LHP Daniel Lynch (Early)
  2. Josh Donaldson at RHP Mitch White (Main)
  3. Pete Alonso vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo (Main)
  4. Joey Gallo at RHP Joe Musgrove (Late)
  5. Corey Seager at RHP George Kirby (Late)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

Once more there is rain in the Cleveland and Pittsburgh areas, though the coverage is unlikely to manifest into anything more than a delay.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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