MLB DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Pitchers: Focus on the Angels with Lucas Giolito Against the Twins at SP1 (October 4)

Tuesday, October 4, has several afternoon games along with a pair of doubleheaders. Everything culminates in an eight-game featured slate with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.

DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (10/4)

Motivating Factors Down The Stretch

Last night the final playoff berth was secured by Philadelphia and Milwaukee was eliminated. Over the last two days of the season, there are still a few moving parts, but chaos and unexpected short outings may pop up at any time. This is nothing new, however, typically this occurs on the weekend with most eyes on college football Saturday and of course NFL Sunday. Though not quite as wild as the last two days of the NBA, it can be very similar.

Typically if reserves or backups are starting, then they should play most of the game. Some players and managers like to keep everyone on a routine, so that could lead to unexpected pinch hit scenarios for top-end hitters or an early call to the bullpen for starting pitchers.

Key motivations:

Los Angeles Dodgers: Clinched the best record and are lining up their playoff rotation. Expect short outings for any regular pitcher over the next two days. Today it looks like both Julio Urias and Andrew Heaney will be pitching. The Dodgers have a first-round bye.

Houston Astros: Locked into the second-best record in the league and the best in the American League. Justin Verlander is scheduled to pitch tonight, but there is no need to push him and he likely has the American League Cy Young Award in hand based on expected odds. The Astros have a first-round bye.

Atlanta Braves and New York Mets: Atlanta has a 1.5-game lead for the National League East, but they need to win out to clinch. Currently, New York will be the Wild Card, so it behooves both of these teams to continue trying to win for the better seeding.

New York Yankees: Locked into the second-best record in the American League, could still improve home field odds for the World Series, but that seems like a reach to risk anything for that potential outcome. Aaron Judge, of course, is looking for home run #62, which would be an American League record, as well as nabbing the Triple Crown. The Yankees have a doubleheader today.

Seattle Mariners: Still looking to stay ahead of Tampa Bay and hold on to the second Wild Card. They have a 1.5-game lead, so this is not particularly an urgent goal. Seattle has lost their last two while Tampa has now dropped three consecutive games.

San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies: One game separates this pair with the Padres in the lead. The Phillies clinched last night so we could see a lineup of understudies and reserves or some bleary-eyed and dehydrated regulars after a night of revelry.

This covers most of the moving parts, but other wrinkles such as contract incentives or statistical milestones could be in play across every team.

Best MLB DFS Pitchers – Main Slate

Lucas Giolito vs. Minnesota Twins: Both teams are out of the playoffs, solid matchup for Giolito who should be in line for around 90 pitches. The Minnesota offense is held together with paper clips and bubble gum right now and aside from Luis Arraez in the hunt for the batting title, they do not have anything to play for and have lost half a dozen regulars to a variety of injuries over the last two months.

Zac Gallen at Milwaukee Brewers: Gallen is putting the final touches on a season that could see him end up with a few Cy Young votes. Currently, he ranks seventh with a 2.46 ERA and second with an 0.89 WHIP. Last night, Milwaukee was eliminated from the postseason, so we could see a lineup filled with benchwarmers tonight.

Michael Lorenzen at Oakland Athletics: September was a good month for the mercurial Lorenzen, who made four starts with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 23 strikeouts across 20.2 innings. The Oakland offense is not particularly fierce and this game is in a pitching-friendly venue.

Justin Verlander vs. Philadelphia Phillies: There is no need to push Verlander, but as we have seen in his last couple of starts, even in a maintenance game, he can put up fantasy points. Philadelphia clinched last night, so we could see a watered-down lineup, or they could roll out their regulars to try to catch San Diego in the Wild Card standings. Caveat Emptor.

Gerrit Cole at Texas Rangers: Similar to Verlander in that there is no reason for him to do much other than stay on his standard schedule, but he could rack up some strikeouts depending on the Texas lineup.

Ranger Suarez at Houston Astros: Depends entirely on what lineup Houston rolls out and  if Suarez is an SP1 and viable on FanDuel or if he is relegated to SP2 status.

Jeffery Springs at Nathan Eovaldi in Boston: Rain in the forecast could remove these potential SP2s from the player pool.

Additional Opportunities

Ranger Suarez has a low 3.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. Yes, he is facing the Astros who have been nails against lefties for years, but the Stokastic MLB DFS projections are forecasting 4.4 strikeouts and a 63% of surpassing this milestone. Suarez has four or more strikeouts in 14 consecutive starts, though eight have been exactly four. We could see a watered-down Houston lineup and the -124 moneyline is reasonable, and this works out to a 16% expected return on investment, aka xROI, as calculated by OddsShopper.

If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.

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Best MLB DFS Stacks – Main Slate

Arizona Diamondbacks at LHP Eric Lauer: Milwaukee was eliminated last night and September was a rough month for Eric Lauer, who had a pair of starts where he failed to complete the third inning. In his four appearances last month, he was socked with a 5.82 ERA and while there was some bad luck involved, he is also at a career-high for innings pitched and could be running out of steam. Jordan Luplow, Carson Kelly, Chase Walker and Stone Garrett are far from household names, but they all fare well against southpaws.

Chicago White Sox vs. RHP Josh Winder: Over his last five starts, Winder has been very hittable with a 6.29 ERA, 6.23 FIP and seven home runs allowed in just 24.1 innings. There are plenty of power bats in the heart of the ChiSox lineup with Jose Abreu, Eloy Jiminez and Gavin Sheets. Chicago was eliminated from the postseason long ago and has been relatively consistent with their lineups along with dealing with several injured players. Elvis Andrus is in the midst of the best four-week stretch of his career and Mark Payton is in play as a discount dandy if he is nestled into the two-hole.

Los Angeles Angels at LHP Cole Irvin: Over his last three starts, Irvin has allowed six home runs and 15 total runs in just 15.2 innings. That is a potential recipe for disaster against the top-heavy Halos. Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Taylor Ward and Luis Rengifo are the core four to target in this matchup.

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

The East Coast is looking at rain throughout the day which will impact games in Baltimore, Boston and New York. Coverage looks like all three venues will be impacted in some form or fashion, so be sure to keep tabs on the forecast up until lock.

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