Monday Sept. 5, brings a loaded afternoon of holiday baseball rounded out by a six-game featured slate with a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/5)
Main Slate: Chicago White Sox at LHP Marco Gonzales — 4.8 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool does like several of the Chicago bats against lefty Marco Gonzales. While Gonzales is not a bad pitcher, he is not a great pitcher either with a lackluster 15.1% strikeout rate while trying to survive a nearly 40% fly-ball rate. To his credit, he does just enough to keep opposing hitters from hitting the ball squarely, which has given him a 1.24 home-runs-per-nine-innings rate for his career. Of course, the tradeoff for that is still a lot of line drives for extra-base hits with righties recording a .208 ISO over the last two seasons.
This year, the White Sox lineup has been a revolving door with it being a rare alignment of the planets when they field their fully healthy squad. Currently, they are without Tim Anderson (wrist surgery), Yoan Moncada (hamstring) and though Luis Robert is back from the paternity list, he is dealing with a wrist issue. Plus, super-utility man Danny Mendick has managed to play in only 31 games and Yasmani Grandal has been in a horrible slump, when he is available to play.
Despite all of this madness, the ChiSox are still fielding a lineup with plenty of options who should succeed against southpaws. Jose Abreu obviously stands out with a .400 wOBA and a .259 ISO in his last 252 opposite-handed matchups. A.J. Pollock is on the downside of his career, but all of the injuries have kept him in the lineup and he has a tremendous track record against lefties. Andrew Vaughn should be near the top of the order and he has plenty of extra-base power. Plus despite his struggles, Grandal is still catcher eligible and the switch-hitter is better from the right side of the plate.
Late Slate: Los Angeles Angels vs. LHP Tyler Alexander — 5.0 implied runs
Tonight, the Angels will be rolling with a mostly right-handed lineup against lefty Tyler Alexander. While the 28-year-old southpaw tends to perform best as a multi-inning reliever, Detroit is running low on pitching options. Across six August appearances, Alexander has struck out only 18 hitters while allowing 19 earned runs in 30.2 innings. While he has “limited” the opposition to just half a dozen home runs in this stretch, there should be crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight for the Halos.
The lack of strikeout stuff in Alexander’s arsenal should play in the favor of Los Angeles. The key for tonight will be to have runners on base for Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani along with the hopes that Luis Rengifo or Jo Adell can take one out of the yard.
Afternoon Slate: St. Louis Cardinals vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez — 5.1 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool acknowledges that Anibal Sanchez has had a long and storied career spanning three decades, that began back in 2006 when he made his debut with the Florida Marlins where he played alongside future Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera and a budding young slugger named Mike Stanton. Along the way, Sanchez recorded a no-hitter in Dolphin’s Stadium and also led the American League with a 2.57 ERA while he was playing for the Tigers.
Today, however, the Cardinals will be facing the 38-year-old version of that one-time ace. This season in 46.1 innings Sanchez has allowed 12 home runs, which is three more than he ceded when winning the ERA title while logging four times the innings. Look to the St. Louis power bats from either side of the plate. The primary targets, of course, are always Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, though there is no need to be shy about including Tyler O’Neill, Corey Dickerson and Lars Nootbaar in the mix.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: LHP Blake Snell s. Arizona Diamondbacks — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $10,300
Pitching looks to be dodgy on the featured slate with several less than trustworthy options along with a pair of debutants in Hunter Brown and Ryne Nelson. Clearly, Blake Snell is one of the more fantasy-friendly pitchers with his proclivity for strikeouts, however, he is typically an adventure unto himself and he is taking on the suddenly surging Diamondbacks. Arizona is 9-3 in its last dozen games, while scoring 10 or more runs three times and at least five runs eight times.
Fortunately for Snell, this is the first time that he will be facing the Diamondbacks this season, so the lack of recent familiarity is in his favor. The projected lineup for Arizona has a 25.9% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last two seasons, while Snell has an eye-popping 31.5% rate in the same period. This year Snell has a 12.0 strikeout-per-nine-innings rate, which would be tied for the league lead if he had enough innings to qualify.
Secondary Target: RHP Lance Lynn vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $9,300
Lance Lynn has clearly rounded into form after missing the first two months and change of the season after injuring his knee in April. In his first nine starts, the 35-year-old looked like this might be his last hurrah with a dismal 6.42 ERA, though his 4.67 FIP indicated he may not be done after all and he did suffer some unfortunate hit sequencing that helped inflate his numbers. Even working back to full strength, he still averaged just over a strikeout per inning and saw his velocity return to a level similar to last season.
Over his six most recent starts, his fastball has averaged 93 mph or better in each appearance and is right in line with his 93.5 mph over the prior two seasons. Totaling 36.2 innings in these outings, he has produced a 2.45 ERA, a 3.45 FIP, while allowing only three walks with a 10.3 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate.
The Mariners are certainly not a cupcake matchup, however, they are better suited to face southpaws. While the top half of the order does have several big bats with rookie Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Haniger, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker, the first three have struck out in more than a quarter of their plate appearances against right-handed hurlers over the last two seasons. The back end of the order can be pretty non-descript, though it should get a boost with Cal Raleigh back behind the dish after getting Sunday off. Regardless, Lynn is shaping up as a solid SP2 on DraftKings and is in consideration for tournaments on FanDuel.
Early Target: RHP Kevin Gausman at Baltimore Orioles — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $10,200
Kevin Gausman led the Blue Jays to five victories in his six August starts by allowing just 11 runs with only a trio of round-trippers. Over 36.2 innings in this stretch, the 31-year-old tallied a 2.70 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 42 strikeouts. It does seem like Baltimore could be a team of destiny this season, so who better to test their mettle than their former ace?
There is going to be rain in the forecast throughout Monday, though there should be an opportunity to get in at least one game if not both. The safety net to these teams is also a detriment to DFS games. That of course would be this being the first day of a three-game series and these two teams also wrap up the season back in Camden Yards with another three-game set.
The projected lineup for the Orioles has a two-year trailing strikeout rate of 25.7% against right-handed hurlers. In this same timeframe, Gausman has a 29.0% strikeout rate across 1,353 opposing hitters. If there is a window to get in baseball today, it will count as Game 1, so hopefully the home team does not push for a strategic start time that could cut short Gausman’s holiday appearance.
Additional Opportunities
Jack Flaherty is currently coming in with a 4.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. The Stokastic projections have him for 5.6 strikeouts which gives him a 68% likelihood of surpassing the over. Keep in mind that Flaherty has dealt with injuries this season and made only three appearances in The Show, all back in June. This go around the Cardinals have made sure he is healthy for the stretch run and in his last two MiLB rehabilitation starts, he threw 85 and then 102 pitches. The projected Washington lineup has a 26.1% strikeout rate over the last two seasons when facing right-handed hurlers, making this a nice spot to throw our hat in the ring with Flaherty.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Jameson Taillon vs. Minnesota Twins (Early)
- RHP Jack Flaherty vs. Washington Nationals (Afternoon)
- RHP Hunter Brown vs. Texas Rangers (Main SP2)
- LHP Jose Suarez vs. Detroit Tigers (Main SP2)
- LHP Andrew Heaney vs. San Francisco Giants (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Daniel Vogelbach at RHP Mitch Keller (Early)
- Coors Field Extravaganza (All available slates)
- Alex Bregman vs. LHP Martin Perez (Main)
- Nick Pratto vs. RHP Triston McKenzie (Main)
- Javier Baez at LHP Jose Suarez (Late)
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Baltimore looks to be the main weather culprit with rain on and off all day, compounding the challenges of getting in a doubleheader. They should get in at least one game, though if it comes in sections, that could muck up the start for Kevin Gausman.
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