MLB DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Pitchers: Roll Out The Mariners Against Bubic as a Coors Field Countermove Tonight With Valdez at SP1 (Sept 24)

Saturday, Sept. 24, brings some afternoon baseball, leading into an eight-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.


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DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/24)

Primary Main Slate Stack:

Seattle Mariners at LHP Kris Bubic— 4.7 implied runs

Fall is in the air and that means disparate wind and weather across the various venues in play down the stretch. Kauffman Stadium is getting a boost for the offenses today with game-time temperatures in the mid-80s with a light breeze out to right field.

Lefty Kris Bubic has had a rough season which even included being set back down to the minors during the latter half of May. Overall this season the 25-year-old southpaw has a 2-13 record with a 5.81 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP and an anemic 17.6% strikeout rate with an obscene 10.6% walk rate. Batters swinging the stick from both sides of the plate have each had sustained success. The results over his last half dozen appearances have been particularly dire with an 8.13 ERA and 6.18 FIP in just 27.2 innings.

The Seattle lineup takes a hit with wunderkind Julio Rodriguez (back) and Eugenio Suarez (finger) out of the mix. However, that does open up playing time for some of the discounted understudies, along with moving the other regulars into more prominent places in the batting order.

Ty France and Mitch Haniger each have had sustained success against southpaws and they should be the building blocks for any Seattle stacks. From the back of the lineup Dylan Moore, Luis Torrens and switch-hitter Sam Haggerty all hold the platoon-advantage and provide salary savings to load up on the Coors Field Extravaganza.

Secondary Main Slate Stack:

Houston Astros at RHP Mike Baumann — 4.3 implied runs

The Stokastic Top Stack Tool has been monitoring the MLB transaction wire and would like to point out that the Orioles are calling up Mike Baumann to replace Tyler Wells (shoulder) who has been shut down for the season. Baumann is the 29th ranked prospect in the Baltimore farm system. Over the last two seasons, the 27-year-old has made one start and been used as a long reliever a few times in The Show, tallying 31 innings. The results have been underwhelming with  5.81 strikeouts and 3.48 walks per nine innings.

Houston has all but locked up the best record in the American League with a six game lead against the Yankees and only 12 days left in the regular season. While they are unlikely to catch the Dodgers for the best record in baseball, they hold a slim three game lead against the Mets for the second best record, though that only impacts home field advantage if those two franchises meet in the World Series.

The Astros are likely to continue rotating off days for their regulars, though that just means extra value bats will be available nestled into this juggernaut lineup. As always, the core four of Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are the top targets. Trey Mancini gets a “Remember me?!” game back in Camden Yards and he is a solid option along with Chas McCormick and rookie Jeremy Pena.

Best MLB DFS Pitchers

Primary Pitching Target:

LHP Framber Valdez at Baltimore Orioles  — 3.3 implied runs
  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $11,200

Tonight the luxury pitching option is Framber Valdez in his matchup with the Orioles. The 28-year-old is in the midst of a career season with his 2.57 ERA ranking 11th and his 1.11 WHIP and 176 strikeouts both in the top-20. Most impressive is his league leading 26 quality starts which are three more than the next closest competitor. Over the last 1,361 batters he has faced, Valdez has a 68.7% ground ball rate with a ludicrous negative 4.5 degree launch angle. If you have the budget, look to Valdez as the ace in your “main” lineups.


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Secondary Pitching Target:

RHP Joe Ryan vs. Los Angeles Angels — 3.4 implied runs
  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $9,900

Joe Ryan continues to impress in what is still his rookie season. Last year he logged 26.2 innings and when combined with his work this year he has a solid 3.68 ERA 1.039 WHIP and a respectable 4.04 FIP with just over a strikeout per innings. It is going to be relatively cool tonight in Minnesota with a chance of light precipitation and game time temperatures in the upper-50s. That should help suppress offensive output and as long as Ryan is able to navigate the top of the order, things tail off dramatically after Mike Trout, Shoehie Ohtani, Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward.

Wild Card Pitching Target:

LHP Reid Detmers at Minnesota Twins — 3.8 implied runs
  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,200 | FanDuel $8,000

This has been a mercurial season for rookie Reid Detmers who was sent back down to the minors AFTER he had already thrown a no-hitter. Clearly he is going to be plying his trade for a long time, however, he has been frustrating from a fantasy perspective with his inconsistent strikeouts. After his one-game respite in Triple-A, the youngster came back firing on all cylinders with an 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings rate over his next six appearances.

However, as he has now moved into uncharted waters with a career high 119 innings pitched, he is hitting a wall, even with the Angels spacing out his starts. In his last five appearances, spread out over 30 days, the youngster has recorded only 20 strikeouts in 25 innings. To his credit, he has not allowed a home run in this stretch, though his seemingly discounted salary is actually appropriate for his recent production. The weather and a decimated Minnesota squad makes him someone still worthy of our attention.

Additional Opportunities

Logan Gilbert has a 5.5 strikeout prop in his matchup with the Royals tonight. Currently, our MLB DFS projections are forecasting 5.8 strikeouts and a 59% win probability. While this is a low win probability, Gilbert has surpassed this benchmark in three of his last four starts, notching 34 strikeouts in his last 23 innings on the mound. The projected Kansas City lineup has a 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons, which is nearly the same as the 24.2% attributed to Gilbert in the same timeframe. If Gilbert makes it through the fifth inning, he should be in line to clear the hurdle of 5.5 strikeouts.

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Other Pitching Options

  1. RHP Corbin Burnes at Cincinnati Reds (Early)
  2. RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. Washington Nationals (Early)
  3. RHP Logan Gilbert at Kansas City Royals (Main)
  4. RHP Davis Martin vs. Detroit Tigers (Main SP2)
  5. RHP Merrill Kelly vs. San Francisco Giants (Late)

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Other Hitting Options

  1. Garrett Cooper vs. RHP Erick Fedde (Early)
  2. Coors Field Extravaganza (Both sides, all slates)
  3. Corey Seager vs. RHP Cal Quantrill (Main)
  4. Josh Naylor at RHP Glenn Otto (Main)
  5. Trea Turner vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (Late)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

There may be some light rain in a few places Saturday, but nothing that should put any of the games at risk of a postponement.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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