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MLB DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Pitchers: Use the Yankees to Expose a Fraudulent Berrios + The Lances as SP1s (Sept 27)

Eric MacPherson



MLB DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Pitchers: Use the Yankees to Expose a Fraudulent Berrios + The Lances as SP1s (Sept 27)

Tuesday, Sept. 27, keeps the week rolling with a robust 12-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.

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DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/27)

Main Slate Stack:

New York Yankees at RHP Jose Berrios — 4.1 implied runs

Somehow gamers still value the name recognition of Jose Berrios and consider him a fringe ace. That is complete folly as the veteran of seven MLB campaigns has seen things fall apart this season. Though he is still only 28 years old, Berrios made his debut in The Show back in 2016 and has already crossed over 1,000 innings as a big leaguer, with 1,600 total innings when including his minor and winter league appearances.

So far this season, Berrios has allowed six or more earned runs on six different occasions, with two more five-run appearances. That essentially means he spontaneously combusts on the mound every four starts. Brutal!

For as much guff as the Yankees receive, which is well placed, they have suffered more than their fair share of injuries this season. Andrew Benintendi, Matt Carpenter and DJ LeMahieu are all on the shelf, while Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton have all missed time as well.

All eyes are on Aaron Judge, who has played in all but four games this season while leading the league with 60 home runs, 128 RBIs, 126 runs and 101 walks. It is a lot of fun seeing Judge leading off, as that all but assures him of five plate appearances each game. Rizzo ranks 12th with 32 home runs and Stanton is 24th with his 28 round-trippers, which is impressive considering they have each been on the injured list this season. Though he is on the downside of his career, Donaldson should have no trouble producing against Berrios tonight and should be in the cleanup spot against his former team. Full stacks can be rounded out with Gleyber Torres, Harrison Bader and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, depending on their spots in the order as well as position or salary cap constraints. This team rates out well in most of the metrics considered by the Stokastic Top Stack Tool.

Late Slate Stack:

Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP James Kaprielian — 4.9 implied runs

Once again James Kaprielian finds himself in this article, though to his credit his last two appearances have been stellar. September has been a mercurial month for Kaprielian, who was demoted to the bullpen, though promoted back to the starting rotation before making any appearances. He also missed a start due to a laceration on the middle finger of his throwing hand, so he has just two outings to his credit over the last 27 days.

The layoffs may have allowed his “tired” arm to recover as he already has surpassed his career high for innings. In the aforementioned outings, he did hold Seattle scoreless over seven innings and held Houston to a pair of runs prior to that.

It should be noted that his six August starts are more representative of his season and in 29 innings he allowed a 5.59 ERA with a lofty 17 walks against only 23 strikeouts. Los Angeles is easy to target in stacks because its fantasy production is heavily concentrated at the top of the order.

DraftKings has made things somewhat interesting by assigning a heavy cap hit to Shohei Ohtani ($6,300) and Mike Trout ($6,100). For gamers relying on optimizers, the point per dollar values for this dynamic duo are going to fall short, which means they could be underrepresented in tournaments. There will be plenty of discount dandies to facilitate rostering this pair along with teammates Luis Rengifo, Taylor Ward and Mike Ford.

Best MLB DFS Pitchers

Primary Pitching Target:

Lance McCullers Jr. vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — 3.5 implied runs
  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $10,800

Pitching is plentiful tonight and while Robbie Ray rates out with the best fantasy projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to the Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool, he is negatively leveraged tonight. That means his popularity is far outpacing the likelihood of him being one of the top two pitchers once those games are in the books.

By no means should we avoid him, however, in the large field tournaments, we can look to Lance McCullers Jr., who has a median projection that is a few fantasy points below Ray, but who also is coming in with one-third of the popularity.

In his seven starts, McCullers has been outstanding after missing the first several months while recovering from a forearm injury suffered in the playoffs. Across 41.2 innings, he has a 2.38 ERA with 45 strikeouts and he has thrown 97 or more pitches in each of his last four appearances. Tonight, the Astros are -230 moneyline favorites and McCullers is likely to be the pitcher of record while also having a strong chance for a quality start. UPDATE: Lance McCullers Jr. was scratched due to illness, he will be replaced by Luis H. Garcia who has not pitched since last Monday. He is a fine replacement option for McCullers and will have a similar popularity discount from Ray.

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Secondary Pitching Target:

RHP Lance Lynn at Minnesota Twins — 3.2 implied runs
  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $10,100

After a late spring injury, Lance Lynn did not take the mount until the middle of June. He clearly was working his way back into form in real-time and the results were not pretty. However, over his last 10 starts he has been an absolute force, allowing two or fewer runs in eight appearances. In this stretch, he has tallied 62 innings with a 2.18 ERA, a 3.01 FIP and 67 strikeouts while allowing only seven home runs and seven walks. The Twins have been decimated by injuries and the back-half of their batting order is filled with below-replacement-level players.

Additional Opportunities

Bailey Ober should be nowhere near our DFS lineups tonight, however, his 3.5 strikeout prop in his matchup with the White Sox is quite interesting as a betting opportunity. The Stokastic MLB DFS projections are forecasting 4.9 strikeouts and a 69% win probability. Even with the heavy -150 moneyline, this wager has a 15% expected return on investment or xROI. We can also pair this with other player props in a parlay or same game parlay to increase the payout upside.

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Other Pitching Options

  1. RHP Hunter Green at Pittsburgh Pirates (Early)
  2. LHP Robbie Ray vs. Texas Rangers (Main, Late)
  3. RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. Miami Marlins (Main)
  4. LHP Patrick Sandoval vs. Oakland Athletics (Main SP2, Late)
  5. RHP Logan Webb vs. Colorado Rockies (Late)

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Other Hitting Options

  1. Javier Baez vs. RHP Zack Greinke (Early)
  2. Matt Olson at RHP Paolo Espino (Main)
  3. Rafael Devers vs. RHP Kyle Bradish (Main)
  4. Kyle Tucker vs. RHP Zach Davies (Main)
  5. Sean Murphy at LHP Patrick Sandoval (Late)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

There is rain in the Midwest with Detroit carrying the highest risk of an in-game delay, though it is worth mentioning to keep an eye on Cleveland as well since Shane Bieber is a viable pitching option in the early evening slate. Last night saw a delay in Pittsburgh and while tonight’s forecast is better, give things a once-over closer to first pitch.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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