Sunday, Sept. 18, has an 11-game featured slate with a first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. Contests are smaller with the NFL casting a long shadow, so be sure to register early for the good ones. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/18)
Main Slate Stack: Red Sox vs. LHP Kris Bubic — 5.9 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool knows all eyes will be on the NFL today, but for anyone who is playing baseball, do not overlook Boston against Kris Bubic. The last four starts for Bubic have been disheartening, as he has allowed a pair of long balls in three of them. Boston is all but eliminated from postseason contention; however, it would behoove the organization to keep putting out their best lineups possible until that happens.
Over the last two seasons, Bubic has a 19.3% strikeout rate with an ugly 10.5% walk rate. To his credit he has been able to keep opposite-handed power mostly in check, with a .169 ISO in this timeframe. However, when things go south on him, the runs start to add up. Rafael Devers is an excellent option, as he handles same-handed pitching with ease and that is an area where Bubic surprisingly struggles, with a .266 ISO in his last 211 matchups.
Xander Bogaerts, Tommy Pham, Christian Arroyo and Enrique “Kike” Hernandez are the right-handers that should be mainstays of full stacks. The Red Sox tend to move hitters around the batting order, so be sure to maximize the synergy by finding the players closest to each other today.
Mid-Afternoon Stack: Astros vs. LHP Ken Waldichuk — 5.1 implied runs
Lather, rinse, repeat. Oakland is rolling out another lefty against Houston, so this recommendation essentially writes itself. Rookie Ken Waldichuk is the top-rated prospect in the Oakland farm system; he saw his initial development curtailed by the pandemic, which cancelled the 2020 MiLB season. Waldichuk was a key part of the Frankie Montas deal. However, he has only 66.1 innings at Triple-A, with all of them coming this season. Projection systems do like him to be a frontline starter with strikeout upside, but that is still a couple seasons away.
Jose Altuve and rookie Jeremy Pena each received a day off in this series, so they should both be reunited at the top of the lineup this afternoon. Alex Bregman and Trey Mancini are the other right-handed batsmen to make priority targets. Lefties Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are both elite in lefty-lefty matchups, and their production of the last two seasons against same-handed hurlers is better than any of their teammates who hold the platoon advantage. If super-utility man Aledmys Diaz finds his way into the lineup again, he is a nice salary saver, as is outfielder Chas McCormick, who has light-tower power when he actually connects.
Late Afternoon Stack: Angels vs. LHP Marco Gonzales — 4.3 implied runs
The field will be looking to the Padres in their matchup against rookie Ryne Nelson. San Diego has been struggling mightily since dealing for Juan Soto and Josh Bell. That duo has been among the bottom five hitters in the game from a slugging perspective since changing uniforms. Brandon Drury is back, and those three along with Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth or Jurickson Profar make for a fine, albeit chalky stack.
Next up will be Seattle squaring off against Reid Detmers. The Mariners have quietly been effective against southpaws, and they are creating runs nearly 20% more efficiently than league average. However, they will be going against a rookie who has flashed strikeout upside and already authored a no-hitter. The counter argument against Detmers is that he has already passed his career high for innings and he has lost a lot of his effectiveness over the last three weeks. The Angels have limited him to just four starts in this span, and while he has not given up any home runs, he has allowed a 5.68 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP while striking out 17 across 19 innings. The batters swinging the stick from the right side of the plate in the top six of the order are the players to target.
Now we can turn to Los Angeles. Marco Gonzales is a fine pitcher, and every year from 2018 forward he has a sub-4.00 ERA, which is impressive. However, he does allow his fair share of home runs, though he usually is able to mitigate the damage by limiting baserunners. The Angels, of course, have two of the best hitters in the game, with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani adjacent to each other in the order.
Luis Rengifo would be their ideal teammate to include with them, as he is the leadoff man, does a decent job of getting on base and could easily score a run while giving one of the hitters behind him credit for an RBI. Taylor Ward will likely be in the cleanup spot, and he is an option, though with not many good hitters behind him, things are likely to dry up until the order turns over. Jo Adell would be the discount dandy to use as a one-off when home run hunting this afternoon.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Jacob deGrom vs. Pirates — 2.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,900 | FanDuel $11,900
Somehow, Jacob deGrom angered his DFS supporters on Tuesday by allowing three runs over six innings against the Cubs, despite striking out 10 hitters. The Pirates lineup is another tier below Chicago in the National League pecking order, and this is a phenomenal spot to roll with deGrom. There will be plenty of cheap hitters on Sunday with the September callups starting to populate lineups, so this apex salary is far from daunting today.
Secondary Target: LHP Framber Valdez vs. Athletics — 2.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,900 | FanDuel $11,400
Though Oakland is not terrible against lefties, the offense is still in the bottom five this season by most traditional and advanced metrics. Then we have Framber Valdez. who is an anomaly unto himself. Over the last 1,338 batters he has faced since the start of last year, collectively they have a negative-4.3-degree launch angle, which results in a 68.5% ground ball rate that is second to none. Valdez also picks up his fair share of strikeouts and is a near lock for a quality start, which makes him a strong option, even with a salary approaching that of deGrom.
Late Slate Target: RHP Yu Darvish at Diamondbacks — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $10,700
There is not much to analyze here with only four starting pitchers in the player pool. Yu Darvish is easily the most accomplished option, and while Detmers has posted some gaudy numbers at times, he has hit the rookie wall and it would not be a shock if today was his penultimate start as the Angels begin to shut him down for the season.
Additional Opportunities
Currently, Sandy Alcantara has a 5.5 over/under strikeout prop. That looks pretty attainable in Washington against the pitiful Nationals. The Stokastic projections are forecasting 6.3 strikeouts and a 65% win probability. While Alcantara has topped that figure in just three of his last six starts, five of those games were against Philadelphia, Atlanta and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Miami ace is currently the odds-on favorite to with the National League Cy Young Award, for those of you not aware of just how good he has been this season.
If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Gerrit Cole at Milwaukee Brewers (Main)
- LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. Cincinnati Reds (Main)
- RHP Sandy Alcantara at Washington Nationals (Main)
- RHP Spencer Strider vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Main)
- RHP Javier Assad vs. Colorado Rockies (Mid-Afternoon SP2)
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 17)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: BoSox Boppers vs. LHP Ben Lively! (April 17)
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Fernando Tatis Jr. (April 17 Main Slate)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Will The Cody Bellinger Resurgence Continue? (April 16)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 16)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Other Hitting Options
- Adolis Garcia at LHP Jeffrey Springs (Main)
- Austin Riley vs. LHP Bailey Falter (Main)
- Josh Donaldson at Milwaukee Brewers (Mid-Afternoon)
- Paul Goldschmidt vs. RHP Luis Cessa (Mid-Afternoon)
- Eugenio Suarez at LHP Reid Detmers (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Things should be relatively risk free, with only Boston looking at potential precipitation on the main slate, though things look good until after the game window. ESPN Sunday Night Baseball is featuring the Dodgers visiting San Francisco to battle the Giants. There is likely to be some rain in that game, though it could end up as “Bay Area Mist,” which is known as a light drizzle in the rest of the country.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[MLBPAGE]
