Tuesday, Aug. 30, brings an even dozen games for the featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (8/30)
Main Slate: Braves vs. RHP Jose Urena — 5.4 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is surprised that Jose Urena is still in the league. The former Marlins hurler has been saved from the scrap heap twice this season, first with Milwaukee, and after they gave up, Colorado has rolled him out for 10 starts. All told, he has logged 58.2 innings, a 5.65 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and barely a strikeout every other inning.
Atlanta has a loaded lineup, and Ozzie Albies is expected to rejoin the team later in September after a rehabilitation stint in the minors. Matt Olson keeps knocking home runs, and the trio of Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson has done an amazing job setting the table for the cleanup hitter as well as creating their own offense. Travis d’Arnaud is getting healthy again, and Eddie Rosario keeps chugging along. Then, at the back of the lineup, youngsters William Contreras and Michael Harris III continue to show signs of improvement seemingly with every game under their belt. Do not by shy about overloading on Atlanta tonight, as it may look like they are taking batting practice once the game is underway.
Evening Slate: Brewers vs. RHP Mitch Keller — 5.3 implied runs
August has not been kind to Mitch Keller, as he has been knocked out early in each of his last two starts, lasting a combined 5.2 innings and allowing a dozen runs, though half were of the unearned variety. For the month, he has a 5.29 ERA across 17 innings while allowing nearly two baserunners per inning and striking out only 10 opposing hitters.
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool is highlighting several Brewers as excellent point-per-dollar options against Keller. Willy Adames has the best profile against Keller, followed by Hunter Renfroe and then catcher Omar Narvaez.
To his credit, Keller does have an elevated ground ball rate — around 50% — so he typically is able to stay out of trouble. However, as we have seen in recent games, that can go sideways with a shaky defense behind him. It makes the most sense to consider the Brew Crew as duos or a trio, with Christian Yelich and Andrew McCutchen additional options when looking for hitters in adjacent lineup slots for added synergy.
Late Slate: Yankees at RHP Mike Mayers — 4.9 implied runs
Tonight, Mike Mayers draws the unenviable task of facing the New York offensive juggernaut. The 30-year-old journeyman has seen action across seven different seasons, working mostly as a reliever with a few spot starts. Mayers was sent down to Triple-A Salt Lake in June to be stretched out as a starter, with the Angels desperate for anyone to absorb innings in yet another lost season.
After working his way up a full 90-pitch workload, Mayers was recalled to the big club. He has made four multi-inning appearances in August and should be good for around 80 pitches, or as long as he is able to survive against the Yankees.
Aaron Judge hit his 50th home run of the season last night, while Anthony Rizzo got his 29th in a 4-3 loss to Anaheim. Judge leads the league by 14 round-trippers, and even after missing time, Rizzo ranks ninth. Giancarlo Stanton is looking rusty after missing a month with an Achilles issue, and though he has only two hits in 16 at bats, we are all aware of his legendary light-tower power.
Josh Donaldson has hits in seven of his last 11 appearances, including a pinch hit last night. That still leaves DJ LeMahieu and Andrew Benintendi, who should land in prominent lineup spots. Also, rookie Oswaldo Cabrera has been pesky, with hits in five of his last six games, including a pair of three-hit outings last week. Though we will not be alone in targeting the Yankees on the late slate, they are not picking up nearly as much traction on the 12-game featured slate.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Aaron Nola at Diamondbacks — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $11,000
Aaron Nola has been dialed in, and tonight he gets a nice park boost in Chase Field, where the roof is scheduled to be closed, allowing the humidor to be more effective in countering the dry desert air. The Diamondbacks are not bad, but they are far from flashy and lack consistency on offense. Though they plated 13 runs last night and 10 on Saturday, they have had more than four runs in five of their last 13 games.
On the season, Nola has a 3.08 ERA, and his 0.94 WHIP and 185 strikeouts are both top-five marks. There is no discount to be had on his salary, but there will be plenty of cheap bats that we can feather in throughout our lineups to facilitate getting to plenty of the Philadelphia ace.
Secondary Target: LHP Framber Valdez at Rangers — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $10,900
The unique pitching profile for Framber Valdez makes him nearly matchup proof. It needs to be noted that the “upside” has been removed with his five-figure salary, though the baseline production makes this ground ball artist a worthy selection. Since the beginning of last year, the 28-year-old southpaw has induced 1,244 opposing batters to hit ground balls 69.4% of the time, courtesy of his negative-5.0-degree launch angle. This has resulted in a sub-.100 ISO, yet Valdez still has a 21.8% strikeout rate.
Currently, his 2.65 ERA ranks ninth overall, while his 142 strikeouts and 1.13 WHIP are both top-25 marks among qualified pitchers. Texas has been outstanding against lefties this season, with a 125 wRC+ and an eye-popping .201 ISO. However, they too have fallen victim to Valdez, who has tallied a 0.45 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 20 innings across three starts. That is no guarantee of tonight’s results, but it is nice to see he has had sustained success against even a formidable team like the Rangers.
Wild Card Target: RHP George Kirby at Tigers — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $9,200
Detroit has improved from epically bad against right-handed pitching all the way up to completely terrible. Rookie George Kirby has been a pleasant surprise for Seattle with his fast ascension up the learning curve. The wild card status comes from a combination of his increasing salary, the Tigers’ offensive improvement over the last month and the Mariners keeping an eye on Kirby’s workload, as they will be counting on him if they manage to make the postseason for the first time since 2001.
Additional Opportunities
Kevin Gausman currently has a 5.5 strikeout prop for his matchup with the Yankees. The Stokastic MLB Player Props Tool has him for 6.5 strikeouts and a 63% chance of surpassing the over. Gausman has logged five or more strikeouts in his last eight starts, with six or more in half a dozen of these appearances.
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Other Pitching Options
- LHP Shane McClanahan at Miami Marlins (Early)
- RHP Kevin Gausman vs. Chicago Cubs (Main)
- LHP Cole Irvin at Washington Nationals (Main, weather concerns)
- RHP Brady Singer at Chicago White Sox (Evening)
- LHP Blake Snell at San Francisco Giants (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Josh Naylor vs. RHP Spenser Watkins (Early)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. RHP Marcus Stroman (Main)
- Mark Canha vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (Main)
- Kyle Tucker at RHP Dane Dunning (Evening)
- Alec Bohm at RHP Zac Gallen (Late)
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Tuesday the East Coast is looking at some potential precipitation, with New York and Washington being the cities carrying the highest risk. In New York, it looks like there is going to be a window that should allow most of the game to be completed. Washington, on the other hand, is forecast for late-afternoon storms that continue into the evening, so this will be a situation to monitor leading up to first pitch.
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