MLB DFS Picks: Thursday, September 5th is a split-slate with four early and eight main games for Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
Check out our MLB Strategy show from this morning, where we take you through each game on the slate!
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. In addition to using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel MLB
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings MLB
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo MLB
[table id=1201 /]
Austin Pruitt
This is the state of affairs for the main slate pitching options. As of this moment, Pruitt is looking like my best point per dollar play across the industry. The Blue Jays’ active roster has the fourth highest strikeout rate in the league against righties. They’ve been a below average offense with above average power. Toronto is one of two teams with an implied run total below four. I see this as a really nice value spot, with the potential for an above average outing due to how often Toronto strikes out. He’s not the best in the world, but he’ll work for tonight.
Wade Miley
The only other team with an implied total under four runs is the Seattle Mariners, which puts Miley on my radar. Miley isn’t much of a strikeout guy, but he also doesn’t get touched up either. The Mariners, on the other hand, love striking out. They have the fourth highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. They have very little power in their lineup from the right side, outside of Tom Murphy. I don’t really like the other “expensive” arms, so I believe Miley is the best option at the top.
Other Options
Stephen Strasburg is the most expensive pitcher across the industry, but he has a date with Braves. He’s clearly the most talented arm, but I can’t imagine wanting to spend up like that, unless you just have tons of salary left over. I have a similar feel for Jose Quintana. Right now, I expect to load up in the mid range. It creates the easiest roster construction.
