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MLB DFS Picks: Walker Buehler & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, August 27 (FREE)

Josh Engleman



Daily fantasy baseball advice from Awesemo MLB DFS Picks Strategy Show for DraftKings and FanDuel picks on 6/10

MLB DFS Picks: Tuesday, August 27th gives us a Coors Field Extravaganza and all 30 teams in action on the main game set for Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.

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For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here

I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

Walker Buehler$1020039.213.7%
James Paxton$980034.29.0%
Jose Berrios$960035.711.0%
Dallas Keuchel$900028.43.7%
Tyler Glasnow$880027.53.1%
Anthony Desclafani$840030.44.2%
Mike Fiers$830027.91.6%
Dakota Hudson$790025.40.9%
Marcus Stroman$780030.53.4%
Eric Lauer$770024.11.9%
Austin Voth$760023.70.9%
Vince Velasquez$760030.23.5%
Zach Plesac$740023.11.4%
Jose Urquidy$700026.61.5%
Justus Sheffield$690021.40.6%
Pablo Lopez$680026.03.9%
Alec Mills$680021.90.6%
Johnny Cueto$670022.91.2%
Nathan Eovaldi$650025.01.9%
T.J. Zeuch$630015.90.2%
Asher Wojciechowski$600019.00.9%
Steven Brault$590025.41.1%
Zach Davies$570018.61.0%
Taylor Clarke$560018.40.3%
Antonio Senzatela$560018.80.4%
Patrick Sandoval$550015.70.2%
Joseph Palumbo$550011.60.1%
Eric Skoglund$550015.30.3%

DraftKings MLB

Walker Buehler$1170021.812.4%
James Paxton$1120018.38.4%
Jose Berrios$1080019.19.9%
Marcus Stroman$1030016.23.2%
Anthony Desclafani$990016.54.1%
Dallas Keuchel$960015.43.4%
Johnny Cueto$930012.01.2%
Austin Voth$900012.00.9%
Justus Sheffield$870010.50.6%
Zach Plesac$850011.41.4%
Dakota Hudson$810012.60.9%
Mike Fiers$790014.61.6%
Jose Urquidy$750014.01.4%
Eric Lauer$720012.51.9%
Tyler Glasnow$690014.83.1%
Alec Mills$690011.00.7%
Patrick Sandoval$67007.40.2%
Pablo Lopez$650014.03.7%
Vince Velasquez$620016.03.3%
T.J. Zeuch$59007.50.2%
Eric Skoglund$56007.10.3%
Antonio Senzatela$54008.60.4%
Joseph Palumbo$54005.50.1%
Asher Wojciechowski$52008.80.9%
Zach Davies$47008.81.0%
Taylor Clarke$45009.30.4%
Steven Brault$430012.81.1%
Nathan Eovaldi$410013.11.9%

Yahoo MLB

Walker Buehler$5423.311.4%
James Paxton$4520.09.0%
Mike Fiers$4216.31.7%
Jose Berrios$4221.29.0%
Tyler Glasnow$3915.84.5%
Vince Velasquez$3817.43.8%
Anthony Desclafani$3718.24.3%
Taylor Clarke$3510.40.6%
Dallas Keuchel$3417.63.3%
Pablo Lopez$3416.14.0%
Marcus Stroman$3317.93.2%
Zach Plesac$3313.21.5%
Nathan Eovaldi$3314.52.6%
Eric Lauer$3214.52.1%
Steven Brault$3214.31.3%
Johnny Cueto$3213.61.5%
Dakota Hudson$3214.21.0%
Alec Mills$3112.60.8%
Austin Voth$3113.71.0%
Jose Urquidy$2815.81.7%
Asher Wojciechowski$2610.41.1%
Justus Sheffield$2612.00.8%
Antonio Senzatela$2610.40.5%
Patrick Sandoval$258.60.3%
T.J. Zeuch$259.00.3%
Joseph Palumbo$256.30.2%
Eric Skoglund$258.60.4%
Zach Davies$2510.51.2%

Walker Buehler

On a day with a ton of expensive pitching, Buehler stands out as the best combination of upside and price. The Padres have been terrible against righties in basically every metric you can look up. Buehler is dirty to both sides of the plate. He honestly doesn’t have a weakness. I’ll take the 28% strikeout rate against the team with the highest K-rate in the majors. Buehler is the premier option tonight.

Tail Awesemo's Sports Betting Picks Today!

Andrew Heaney

If you need an arm in the mid-tier, Heaney is your guy. The Rangers have the second highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. They’ve been right around average in terms of wRC+, though. Either way, Heaney is simply too cheap across the board to be avoided, particularly on FanDuel where he’s just $8200. Heaney’s only real issue is with right handed power which the Rangers are largely devoid of. I’m hoping Heaney’s ownership stays down, as he feels like a fantastic tournament play in large fields.

Drew Smyly

I’m not proud of this one, but sometimes you need to spend all the way down. Smyly comes in with a $4600 price tag on DK. $30 on Yahoo is also reasonable. The Pirates are a terrible strikeout matchup, but they’ve also been the worst hitting team against lefties this year. Their wRC+ against left handed pitching is just 79, with a .137 ISO to go along with it. That’s really bad. While he might not rack up a ton of strikeouts, the fact that Pittsburgh has been toothless to left handers is all I really need to know at this price. I expect Smyly and Adrian Houser to soak up most of my pay-down exposure.

Looking for more free content? Be sure to catch Live Before Lock (6ET) with Josh Engleman and Chris Randone! They’ll break down the weather, MLB picks, and DFS strategy! In the meantime, check out this morning’s MLB Strategy Show where we broke down the slate game-by-game!

Josh is Contributor for where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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