MLB DFS Picks: Walker Buehler & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, August 9 (FREE)

MLB DFS: Friday, August 9th provides an outstanding tournament environment on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB picks, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.


I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

[table id=1177 /]

DraftKings MLB

[table id=1178 /]

Yahoo MLB

[table id=1201 /]

Walker Buehler

Since 2018, Buehler has a 28% strikeout rate against both sides of the plate. He has . 120 xISO against him in that same time with an xwOBA below .275. By all metrics, Buehler is a high-end pitcher. I’m not entirely sure he should be the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but I do think he’s the best overall option. The Diamondbacks have the lowest implied total on the slate. While Arizona isn’t the best strikeout matchup, their active roster has been below average against righties. Ultimately, I think Buehler has a high floor. The price could be mildly prohibitive, but at the least, you’re paying up for talent.

Shane Bieber

I’m finding it difficult to pick between the rest of the arms at the top. Each guy has a difficult matchup. Bieber has separated from the pack a bit, but this could easily change by the time we get to lock. Bieber’s biggest struggle is against left handed power, so he’ll need to navigate Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario carefully. It’s a slightly below average strikeout matchup for a pitcher with a 28% strikeout rate against both sides. If the Twins maintain an implied total in the low 4s, and Bieber ownership stays in check, I expect him to be the SP1 I’m most over the field on.

Kyle Freeland

If I’m paying down on one of the two pitcher sites, I’m going all the way down to Freeland. The Padres have the sixth highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. Now, they have hit for some power, but the park should help him out a bit in that regard. Freeland has been death to lefties over the past two years. He has allowed a .106 xISO and .267 xwOBA. Considering part of that data happens in Coors, it’s encouraging. He has trouble getting strikeouts against righties, which the Padres are expected to roll out in droves. Luckily, he doesn’t get full on blasted. His xISO is .170 since 2018. That’s not great, but it’s a lot better than the normal output from pitchers in this price range. By using someone like Freeland, I’ll be able to afford better stacks, which is all I can really ask for.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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