Fantasy MLB DFS: There are several pitchers to target against, but before you lock in your baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
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I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight DFS Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo!
[table id=1201 /]
DraftKings
Surprise, surprise. Jacob deGrom is the top pitching on the slate, and it’s not close. I understand that the Cardinals are an above-average offense, but I will happily bet on deGrom’s strikeout ability in this matchup. I can’t believe he’s not the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel (or any site, for that matter). If I’m pivoting off of deGrom, I think Clayton Kershaw is the next best option.
Now, a battle with the Cubs is not optimal. However, the Dodgers are massive favorites in this spot, which is keeping my eyes on Kershaw. I realize he’s not the same guy he was 3 years ago, but that doesn’t mean he’s not still good now. He’s just different. If I’m paying down on FanDuel, I’m going to the guy in the opposite dugout of deGrom: Jack Flaherty. Flaherty is only $7900, and in a matchup against the Mets, I’m more than willing to take the salary savings and hope for an upper echelon Flaherty start.
FanDuel
The FanDuel three are also my top three options on DraftKings. Flaherty, in particular, is going to soak up a ton of my exposure. I think he’s my floor for pitching. I have very little interest in paying down for Homer Bailey or Ivan Nova, because I want to be way more concentrated with my ownership. The guy I expect to be most over the field on is Jon Gray. I’m consistently over the field on starters in Coors, as I feel the public under owns pitching and over owns hitting. This is an easy way for me to get a little leverage. Jon Gray is an excellent starting pitcher. I don’t care if he’s pitching in Coors. He’s facing a below average Padres lineup that strikeouts out more than average. That’s all I need to know at $8300.
Yahoo!
On Yahoo!, I’m still looking at the guys I have already mentioned, but there are few more pay down options that look viable. Michael Pineda is a monster favorite against the Mariners. If their expected lineup ends up being accurate, they project to strikeout significantly more than average. Keep an eye on Domingo Santana, Mac Williamson and Tom Murphy. If you get at least two of those guys, Pineda makes more a fantastic pay down SP2 at just $33. I think there’s a case to be made for Ryan Yarbrough, but Pineda feels much safer and you’re only spending an extra $4. That’s not really significant.
And stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
