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Early
Luis Castillo ($11,100 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel, $46 Yahoo)
Going into Milwaukee is never an easy spot for opposing pitchers, but Castillo’s ability to miss bats makes him a solid GPP option on today’s early slate even in a tough matchup. His 14.5% Swinging-Strike rate is amongst the league’s lead for starting pitchers, and while the Brewers have a lot of power, they’re striking out at a nearly 25% rate versus righties this season. Castillo should see a healthy dose of lefties here, but he’s striking out 29.1% of them on the year with a 3.67 xFIP, so he certainly has the stuff to get through this lineup and more importantly, get strikeouts in the process to pay off this hefty price tag on DraftKings. Price and matchup should keep his ownership reasonable, but Castillo has the highest upside on an early slate that lacks quality pitching.
Tommy Milone ($7,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel, $28 Yahoo)
Milone has been surprisingly consistent in 2019 so far, striking out at least six hitters in 5 out of his 6 outings while posting a respectable 10.3% Swinging-Strike rate and nearly 35% O-Swing rate. We’ve seen time and time again how poor the Orioles have been against lefties this year, as they’ve struck out at an almost 26% rate while showing little power (.155 ISO) and discipline (5.2% BB rate) versus southpaws. Milone has K’d 22.5% of righties this season, and has benefitted from getting ahead in the count with a 75.4% first-pitch strike rate, so going up against an impatient Orioles’ team, he makes for a solid SP2 even if he’s getting double-digit ownership in tournaments
Main
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($11,500 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel, $53 Yahoo)
Ryu will look to continue his fantastic 2019 season tonight at home against the Rockies as a big favorite on a short slate. He’s gone at least 5 and 2/3rds in all of his starts besides one (which he left with an injury at 1 and 2.3rds on April 8th) while striking out 24% of righties and 25.6% of lefties with xFIPs under 3 to both sides of the plate. There are, of course, a couple concerning bats on the Rockies in Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, but Ryu is allowing little power to righties (.238 wOBA, .24.3% FB, 0.53 HR/9), so these are matchups he can certainly overcome. He’ll likely grade out as the highest-projected pitcher on tonight’s main slate, which should come with a lot of ownership, but I’ll be playing a lot of Ryu and differentiating elsewhere.
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