I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at pitchers. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers. Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings
[table id=1178 /]
With a 13-game slate slate staring us in the face, sifting through the pitching options will be key. Today is shaping up to be the deepest pool of the season, outside of opening day. On FanDuel, there’s a ton of talent concentrated at the top. The five most expensive pitchers all have >10% chance of hitting their target score. Kevin Gausman & Shane Bieber get to that mark with some rounding. Unfortunately, you can only roster one at a time. Independent of projected ownership, Chris Sale is my top option. Even though he’s been a up and down this season, a date with the White Sox should be a big help. It’s a massive strikeout matchup. My #2 is James Paxton. This is more of a bet on talent with a nice price, as the twins offense is a little scary. After those guys, I have a pool of six guys that will sort out based on ownership. Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Matt Boyd, Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray are all viable options with many different price points. I’d have no problem slotting these guys into large-field GPPs to make your stacks work. They are separated by less than a percent per dollar, so it’s hard for me to separate them. Just take whatever fits with your bats.
On the DraftKings side, most of the story is the same, but the price points are different. Sale & Paxton are still at the top of my list. Kershaw, Glasnow, Boyd, Gausman and Bieber are all functional as either SP1s or SP2s, depending on what you need. If you’re looking to spend down further, Joe Musgrove looks interesting at $7200. I wouldn’t expect him to have a ton of ownership because of pitching depth, so he’s someone I’m keeping my eye on for tournaments. If you need even more savings, Kyle Gibson, Trent Thornton and Tyler Anderson are the guys I would focus on, with Anderson being the lowest I would go. As usual, focus more on high ownership pitchers in cash.
