Friday, June 10, wraps up the work week with a mega 15-game main slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/10)
Top Stack: Blue Jays at RHP Elvin Rodriguez — 5.5 implied runs
The Awesemo Stack Tool is highlighting the Blue Jays today with their excellent matchup against 24-year-old Elvin Rodriguez. After toiling in the minors from 2015 to 2017 in the Angels systems, Rodriguez ended up with the Tigers as part of the Justin Upton deal. He worked his way up Low-A ball to Triple-A over the next four years before getting this cup of coffee. If he does not stick as a reliever when the rest of the Detroit rotation is finally healthy, he will likely be granted his outright release. Above-average home runs and a marginal strikeout rate are not a great mix. Heading into this season, Rodriguez was the 19th-ranked prospect for Detroit.
Focus on the power bats, which for the Blue Jays means just about everyone in the top seven of their everyday lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez are the prime options, with Alejandro Kirk looking like a fine play at catcher and Matt Chapman and Cavan Biggio providing bottom-of-the-lineup differentiation.
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Evening Slate: Orioles at RHP Jonathan Heasley — 4.9 implied runs
The crowd will be looking to the Royals against ineffective southpaw Bruce Zimmermann, and if that popularity continues to trend upwards, turning our attention to the Batters of Birdland is a solid countermove. Though this strategy did not come to fruition last night, even with the Orioles plating five runs, they deserve a second chance on Friday. Jon Heasley is not a bad pitcher, but the 25-year-old has struggled with his control, which has led to 18 walks in just 25.1 major league innings and only 15 strikeouts. The pandemic cost him some key seasoning, and it looks like the Royals are willing to let him try to figure things out in The Show. If he can limit home runs, he should survive a demotion, though that is a tall order.
The top half of the Baltimore lineup is above average, with Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Austin Hays all serviceable bats. Ryan Mountcastle is better against righties, and, of course, the book is still out on the gem of the Orioles farm system, catcher Adley Rutschman. DraftKings really goosed the salaries for Mullins ($4,700) and Mancini ($4,800), which should help keep The Masses at bay.
Late Slate: Dodgers at RHP Jakob Junis — 4.9 implied runs
Pop Quiz: Did Jakob Junis finally figure something out after five mediocre to downright horrible seasons with the Royals, or has he just been lucky? In eight outings with the Giants, Junis has managed to pitch 2.13 runs better compared to his career ERA, and he has knocked off almost half a baserunner per inning from his WHIP. Unfortunately for Junis, this is mostly due to luck and favorable hit sequencing, as his 7.33 strikeouts per nine innings are the second fewest of his career and his 85.3% left on base rate is the highest. The Regression Monster is lurking just around the corner and ready to feast.
Even with the 30-team player pool, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts and Trea Turner are all in the top five for their respective positions in the new Awesemo Top Batters Tool. Freeman and Muncy make sense, particularly when noting the career-long struggles of Junis against opposite-handed batsmen. Betts and Turner, of course, are phenomenal hitters regardless of who is on the mound, and we can add in Justin Turner and Gavin Lux for additional options in a full stack.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: RHP Luis Severino vs. Cubs — 3.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $10,200
Luis Severino has been excellent this season and is now fully stretched out. In his last five outings, he has tallied 10, 8, 5, 7 and 8 strikeouts while averaging just over 96 pitches per appearance. The Cubs have above-average power, but they also come with above-average strikeouts. One other nod in Severino’s favor is that the Yankees are 2.5-to-1 favorites to garner the victory tonight. If the inevitable home run allowed by Severino comes with the bases empty, he should be able to post one of the best pitching scores for Friday.
Secondary Target: RHP Joe Musgrove vs. Rockies — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $10,900
Joe Musgrove is one of the top pitching options on the slate tonight, and he’s nearly 20% to be a Top 2 pitcher in the Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool.
There is no denying that Joe Musgrove is having a tremendous seasons. He is fourth with a 1.64 ERA, while his 0.92 WHIP is seventh and he is logging almost one strikeout per inning. The Rockies have a bottom-five 85 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers, and their 80 wRC+ is the third worst when playing games on the road. This is a dream matchup, though it comes with an apex salary for Musgrove.
Wild Card Target: LHP Aaron Ashby at Nationals — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,600 | FanDuel $8,600
In his last two starts, spanning 12 innings against San Diego and in Chicago against the Cubs, Aaron Ashby has racked up 21 strikeouts, allowing a pair of home runs, 13 baserunners and five earned runs. The 24-year-old lefty has fully made the conversion to the rotation, and on the season he has 46 innings with 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings accompanied by a 3.13 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Today’s matchup against Washington is a good one, as the Nationals strike out at a 21.5% clip against southpaws, though they do have some pop with a .180 ISO dating back to last season for their projected lineup. Most of this production is consolidated in Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Lane Thomas and Cesar Hernandez, so as long as Ashby can neutralize the top of the order, he should find smooth sailing through the back half of the lineup.
Additional Opportunities
Roansy Contreras has a tough matchup in Atlanta, and while he is difficult to consider as a DFS option, we can look to him in the MLB player props market. Currently, he has a 4.5 over/under on his strikeout prop and the Awesemo MLB Projections have him for 4.7, giving him a 71% probability of achieving the over. Contreras has notched five or more punchouts in four of his last five outings, and the projected Atlanta lineup has a hefty 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the beginning of last season.
Other Pitching Options
- Tristan McKenzie vs. Oakland Athletics (Main)
- RHP Spencer Strider vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (SP2)
- RHP Jose Berrios at Detroit Tigers (SP2)
- RHP Luis Garcia vs. Miami Marlins (Main, Evening)
- RHP Walker Buehler at San Francisco Giants (Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Yankees vs. Cubs sacrificial lamb – TBD (Main)
- Christian Yelich at RHP Erick Fedde (Main)
- Randy Arozarena at LHP Devin Smeltzer (Evening)
- Jared Walsh vs. RHP Tyler Megill (Late)
- J.D. Martinez at LHP Marco Gonzales (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Saturday will bring more precipitation to the East Coast, but for Friday, we continue to have a few tenuous spots to track in the Midwest. Detroit and Kansas City will have rain in the area, and while postponement is unlikely, there is a possibility of an in-game delay. St. Louis has several storm bands worth monitoring, as there is a chance of a lengthier delay.
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