Friday, July 1, tonight brings a 10-game featured slate with a first pitch at 7:05 p.m ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/1)
Main Slate: Minnesota Twins vs. RHP Spenser Watkins — 5.9 implied runs
After the Coors Field Extravaganza, the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool ranks Minnesota as the third-best stack tonight. Over his last five games, Spenser Watkins has been gobsmacked by the opposition, lasting only 17.1 innings with a horrendous 7.79 ERA and only 10 strikeouts. That is essentially batting practice for professional hitters and we will want to load up on the Twins tonight.
Byron Buxton has been amazing in same-handed matchups with a .323 ISO since the start of last season. Jorge Polanco is back from his most recent injury and his switch-hitting skillset ensures he will have the platoon advantage throughout the game. Max Kepler has light-tower power when facing right-handed hurlers and he is a nice home run wager on the sportsbooks and an easy click on the DFS sites. Alex Kirilloff was tearing the cover off the ball in the minor leagues and it looks like he is back with the big club to stay. Enjoy the salary savings on DraftKings ($2,800) and FanDuel ($2,400).
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Late Slate: Seattle Mariners vs. RHP James Kaprielian — 5.0 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes Seattle, even with J.P. Crawford serving a suspension for his part in Sunday’s basebrawl in Anaheim. Catcher Cal Raleigh, outfielder Julio Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez at the hot corner all rank in the top five for their respective positions.
James Kaprielian has struggled this season, but his last seven starts have been particularly dreadful. Whether it is an undisclosed injury or tipping his pitches, opposing hitters have been feasting on his offerings. Across 34 innings in this span, he has a 6.62 ERA, 42 baserunners allowed along with eight home runs and just 20 strikeouts.
The Mariners trio are a nice secondary stack for the main slate and they can be augmented with Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro for a full stack in the later contests.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: RHP Corbin Burnes at Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $10,900
This is a cherry matchup for Corbin Burnes against Pittsburgh. The Pirates have an 88 wRC+, which indicates it is creating runs 12% less efficiently than league average for the season. Their projected lineup has a 22.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season and change. Even though Pittsburgh will be rolling out a nearly all left-handed lineup, Burnes has been stellar with a 34.4% strikeout rate against opposite-handed batsmen in the same timeframe. While we are paying top dollar for the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, this is still a favorable salary.
Secondary Target: RHP Gerrit Cole at Cleveland Guardians — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,800 | FanDuel $10,600
Across his last three starts, including two against Tampa Bay and one against Houston, Gerrit Cole has racked up 27 strikeouts in 20.1 innings. The Guardians are not a bad offense, but their production is concentrated in Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez. If Cole is able to navigate the middle of the order, he should have a productive evening and makes for the perfect pivot away from Burnes. There is a Coors Field Extravaganza tonight, so gamers will be hard-pressed to roster both aces on the two pitcher sites.
Early Target: RHP Josiah Gray vs. Miami Marlins — 4.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,100 | FanDuel $9,200
There has been a lot of hype around Josiah Gray, who was part of the Max Scherzer and Trea Turner deal last summer. Though the 24-year-old has been serving up home runs like they are going out of style, he also has impressive strikeout potential. Miami is a pesky offense, but it also has five regulars in the lineup who have recorded a 24.8% or higher strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.
Additional Opportunities
Jose Berrios is too risky for DFS lineups tonight, however, we can look to him in the MLB player props market. Currently, he has a 5.5 over/under on his strikeout prop and the Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 4.8 strikeouts, giving him a 66% probability of failing to reach that milestone. Berrios has been a mess this season and over his last two games he has been particularly bad allowing five home runs, 14 earned runs and 20 baserunners in 6.2 innings. During this stretch he has only two strikeouts and there is a strong chance that Tampa Bay knocks him out of the game before he has enough time to rack up the half a dozen it will take for us to lose this wager.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Chris Bassitt vs. Texas Rangers (Main)
- RHP Brad Keller at Detroit Tigers (Main SP2)
- RHP Joe Ryan vs. Baltimore Orioles (Main, Evening)
- RHP Cristian Javier vs. Los Angeles Angeles (Main, Evening)
- RHP Tony Gonsolin vs. San Diego Padres (Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Nolan Arenado at LHP Bailey Falter (Early)
- Pete Alonso vs. RHP Glenn Otto (Main)
- Kolten Wong at RHP Roansy Contreras (Main)
- Alex Bregman vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen (Evening)
- Chris Taylor vs. LHP Blake Snell (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
There are a few troubles spots to monitor with the Midwest venues in Cincinnati, Cleveland and Detroit having potential precipitation. Keep tabs on these locations, as each is in play for a possible postponement if they get more than a glancing blow from the storms in the area.
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